Introduction to the discussion of the presentation by Y. LHorty ASIRPA International WS 13 June 2012...

Introduction to the discussion of the presentation by Y. L’Horty

ASIRPA International WS13 June 2012

ASIRPASocio-economic analysis of the diversity of Impacts of Public Research for Agriculture

• Main Sources– Recent Advances in Impact Analysis Methods for

Ex-post Impact Assessments of Agricultural Technology: Options for the CGIAR (Independent Science & Partnership Council, CGIAR, April 2011)

– « Impact Evaluation: A tool for Accountability? Lessons from experience at AFD » (J.D. Naudet et al., Evaluation and its discontents, Paris, March 26th 2012, AFD-EUDN Conference)

Experience of AFD (Naudet 2012)

New generation of Impact Evaluation methods used in the area of development aid:

(Paris Declaration for Aid Effectiveness -2005) – Based on the model of EBM– Comparisons of treatment and control groups

(Randomized Control Trial – RCT), in order to reliably estimate causal relationships between interventions and their outcomes

– Mainly used by development agencies– Purpose of accountability rather than learning

Two large scale randomized control trials related to micro-credit in Morocco, and health insurance in Cambodia. Methodological problems:• On whom is the impact measured

Problem of rate of participation / externalities

• The impact of « what »?Conditions of the study may themselves affect the impact(e.g. the effect of “being (almost) offered an insurance” and not the effect of “taking an insurance”)

6

Conditions of validity of Randomized Control Trials (After Agence Française de Développement –AFD)

– Homogeneous inputs– A simple causal chain– Large participation and stable behaviours– Short term effects, simple dynamics of effects

•

Economic

Environmental

Social

PolicyTerritorial

Biodiversity

Health

012345

Impact of Genetic breeding against scrapie