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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and 2004: Key Trends and
ChallengesChallengesMarco Baroni
Energy AnalystEconomic Analysis Division
INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN DAY
Berlin, 24th February 2005
World Energy Outlook Series
World Energy Outlook – 2000World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights:
Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
World Energy Outlook – 2002World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: World
Energy Investment OutlookWorld Energy Outlook 2004World Energy Outlook – 2005 Insights:
Middle East and North Africa Energy Outlook: Implications for the World
The context
Global Energy Trends
Energy Market Outlook Oil, gas, coal, electricity, renewables
Regional Outlooks
Russia: an in-depth study
Energy and Development
World Alternative Policy Scenario
WEO 2004 Structure
Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,
while oil remains the leading fuel
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand
Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia
38%
52%
10%
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
43%
9%
48%
2002 2030
10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe
38%
52%
10%
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
43%
9%
48%
2002 2030
10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe
Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits”
The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints
expand
CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of C
O2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity
Alternative Policy Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Analyses impact of new environmental & energy-security policies worldwide OECD: Policies currently under consideration Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in
energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient technology.
Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change
World Primary Energy Demand in Reference & Alternative Scenarios
Coal demand falls most, partially offset by more use of renewables
2 000
1 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mto
e
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
Alternative Scenario
Reference Scenario
0
-
-
≈
Percentage of Global Electricity Generation from Fuel Cells in the OECD regions, 2030
Electricity production from fuel cells will grow from 2% to 4% of global production, mainly concentrated in the OECD
countries
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
341 TWh 498 TWh
35%
40%
25%
OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific
38%
43%
19%
Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative Scenario in 2030,
a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO2
Alternative Scenario
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of C
O2
Reference Scenario
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of C
O2
EU CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
With new policies, EU CO2 emissions stabilise by 2010 and fall after 2020
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of
CO
2
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of
CO
2
Kyoto Target
Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use
for 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
10%
21%
12%
8%
OECD
63%
1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67%
7%
17%
5%4%
Developing countries
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
7%
Fuel switching in end uses
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
Summary & Conclusions
IEA H2/FC Activities
IEA Secretariat: Policy Analysis
Policy studies (WEO, others) International cooperation
Implementing Agreements: R,D&D H2 production & storage, stationary and mobile
fuel cells, CO2 capture & storage, system
integration …
Hydrogen Co-ordination Group: Policy Policy advice, strategies, cooperation
Summary & Conclusions
On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than now
Energy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyond
Vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase as oil & gas trade through key chokepoints expands
But projected market trends raise serious concerns: Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Rising CO2 emissions Huge energy-investment needs Persistent energy poverty
Policies under consideration of technology could substantially reduce energy demand and emissions
But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment (e.g. CCS, Hydrogen, Advanced Nuclear)
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