Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service in India L.S. Rathore Head Agriculture Meteorology...

Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service in India

L.S. RathoreHead Agriculture Meteorology

India Meteorological DepartmentMinistry of Earth Sciences

lsrathore@ncmrwf.gov.inlrathore@gmail.com

Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service in India

L.S. RathoreHead Agriculture Meteorology

India Meteorological DepartmentMinistry of Earth Sciences

lsrathore@ncmrwf.gov.inlrathore@gmail.com

Outline………

Conceptual Frame of AASOperational AAS SystemAgro-Met Information Dissemination

Endorsement & AppreciationOutreach Awareness & FeedbackCapacity BuildingEconomic ImpactFuture Plans

Why AAS• About 75% people are dependent on Agriculture. • About 43% land is used for agricultural activity.• Agriculture continues to play a major role in Economy.• Agriculture is highly sensitive to weather & its variability.• Minor climatic variations have major impact on farm

output• Over next 30 years food production needs to be doubled.• AAS Provides weather & climatic information along with

farm management options • Advisories empower farmers to climate risk minimization.• Provide access to dynamic technological development

Variability in Weather/Climate impacting Agriculture

Increased Heat/Cold WaveIncreased variability of R/FIncreased Extremes

Weather EventsErratic Onset, advance and

retrieval of MonsoonShift in Active/break cyclesIntensity and frequency of

Monsoon lows/depressions

Heavy precipitation events in India have increased during last 50 years

Source: IITM, Goswami et al. 2006; data is the frequency in each of 143 grids in the region

Heavy rainfall events (>10cm)

Very heavy rainfall events (>15cm)

Light to moderate rainfall events (5-100 mm)

Information Needs of FarmersLocal agro-climate & its variabilityWeather forecast

Short & Medium Range Extended range Seasonal Scale

Climate PredictionPest/disease prognosis & control measuresAdvice on sowing/harvest, cultivar selection,

farm input management & intercultural operations

Strategies to Empower Farmers for Weather Based Decision making

Generate information on• Weather & Climate (Observations & Forecast)• Impact of likely weather on crop• Impact of likely weather on P&D• Weather based input management• Weather sensitivity of farm operations

Develop decision making Tools:• Data base• Crop/Soil/P&D Modeling• Remote Sensing & GIS• Crop/Soil Monitoring, Drought Monitoring etc.

Disseminate information Outreach, capacity building, Feedback

CHALLENGESWeather Forecast : Skillful, Quantitative, Locale Specific, Seamless

Agriculture : Crop/Livestock/P&D conditions assessmentDiagnose Weather Related StressWeather Sensitivity of Crops & Management PracticesDecision Support Tools for Translating Weather

Forecast into AdvisoriesAdvisory Dissemination, Outreach & Feedback Synergistic Collaboration among Participating

agencies

AAS: Evolution1932: Division of Ag. Meteorology1945: Farmer’s weather Bulletin1976: Agro-Met Advisory Service (state level 1991: Medium range Wx forecast based

advisories at agro-climatic zone level (127)2007: Integrated AAS at IMD, Ministry of

Earth Sciences2008: Launched District Level Advisories2011: Experimental Block Level Forecast

TIER 1

Apex Policy Planning Body, Delhi

TIER 2National Agromet Service HQ

Execution, Pune

TIER 3State Agromet Centres (28)

Coordination/Monitoring

TIER 4Agromet Field Units

Agroclimatic Zone Level (130)

TIER 5District Level Extension and TrainingInput Management as advisory~640

Network of AAS units

in the country

Network of 130 Agromet Field

Units

Operational Agro-Meteorology Operational Agro-Meteorology Service Goal:Locale & Crop specific Advisory & Farmer Level Outreach

Integrated AAS

130 AMFUs with SAUs & ICAR 5-days Forecast + weekly outlook District Agromet Advisory Every Tuesday & Friday State & National Composite bulletin Smart Dissemination System Feedback Economic Impact Assessment Monitoring (Review Meetings) AAS awareness & user interaction programs

Agro Met R&D back up: ICAR

25 Centers of AICRP on Agro Meteorology

Located at SAUs with AAS of NCMRWF

R&D in Agromet Agromet data bank &

Website

Collaborating Agencies Ministry Of Earth Sciences

India Meteorological Department National Centre For Medium Range Weather

Forecasting Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Indian Council For Agricultural Research Department Of Agriculture & Cooperation State Departments Of Agriculture State Agricultural Universities And Other Universities Ministry of Information Technology Ministry of Science & Technology Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (AIR & TV) Print Media Department Of Space Min. of Rural Development NGOs & Private Agencies

Weight for each grid of each Model (W)

Observed Gridded Field

NCEPNCEP

Step-1 Generation of Multi-Analysis Weights

JMAJMA ECMWFECMWF NCMRWFNCMRWF UKMOUKMO

Multi-model Super Ensemble Technique

Step-2

Forecast (F)= WiFi + D

D= Value addition

NCEPNCEP JMAJMA ECMWFECMWF NCMRWFNCMRWF UKMOUKMO

Generation of Multi-Model Forecasts

AN INTEGRATED SCHEME FOR PREPARATION OF LOCATION SPECIFIC WEATHER FORECAST

Direct Model

SynopticInterpretation

Direct Model Output Forecast

StatisticalInterpretation

Forecaster’s Panel

Final Forecast

Parameters:• Rainfall•Max & Min temperature•Total cloud cover •Surface Relative Humidity •Surface Wind

IMD Multi-model Ensemble (MME) based District level Forecasts

IMD

130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS

DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES(DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs)

PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST

BY STATE MET CENTRE

PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIESFOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC

DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL

AGRO-ADVISORIES

FARMERS(THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES,

IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT)

District-wise Agro-met data

Agro-climate level agro-met data

Feedback analysis

District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System

Three tier Agro-met Advisory System

AMFUs issue district level advisories.State Level Composite AAS Bulletins

are prepared by State Meteorological Centre.

National Agromet Advisory Bulletins are prepared by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, IMD, Pune .

he website

National Agromet Advisory Bulletin Thursday, 22nd J uly, 2010

(For the period 22nd to 26th J uly, 2010)

Satellite image 13 UTC Dated

23rd July, 2010

I ssued by National Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centre

Agricultural Meteorology Division I ndia Meteorological Department

Shivajinagar Pune.

The bulletin is also displayed in the website (http://www.imdagrimet.gov.in) of the Division

Agro meteorological Advisory Bulletin for the

State of Punjab

For the period 27th to 29th J uly, 2010

Issued on

Tuesday, 27th J uly, 2010

Issued by Meteorological Centre Chandigarh

In collaboration with Punjab Agricultural University Ludhiana & Department of

Agriculture, Punjab

Met sub-divisions of the state As per IMD classification entire Punjab State consisting of twenty districts has been taken as one meteorological subdivision.

Agromet Advisory Bulletins at

National, State and District level

District Agromet Advisory Bulletin

More than 550 districts are covered

Bulletin is targeted for the farmers.

This contains advisories for all the weather sensitive agricultural operations form sowing to harvest.

It includes advisories for horticultural crops and livestock also.

State level Composite Bulletin

This bulletin is prepared for the State level CWWG meeting.

This is also meant for other users like Fertiliser industry, Pesticide industry, Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport and other organisations which provide inputs in agriculture.

National Agromet Advisory Bulletin

The bulletin is primarily prepared for the Ministry of Agriculture for taking important decision in Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meeting.

Besides the same is also communicated to all the related Ministries (State & Central), Organisations, NGOs for their use.

Use of Remote Sensing

Crop condition and physiological growth processes are regularly monitored to identify crop type, crop phenology, stress etc.

The monitoring system provides following products Core land surface variables : Albedo, LST, all sky

insolation, NDVI Derived variables: PET, AET, Soil Moisture

Remote Sensing Agencies provide these inputs to AAS system.

AgroMet Information Dissemination

• Mass Mode of Dissemination: Print Media: Newspaper, magazine article Electronic media: Radio, Television

• Select User Group Dissemination;Internet: Internet posting, e-Mail (50 Web Sites)Mobile Phones: SMS, IVRS (Over 2 Million Farmers)

• Human face for Advisory DisseminationExtensionAwareness Program, Farmer’s Fare

Operational communication linkage between Agromet Advisory Service Unit and end-users (farmers) for effective

communication

Forecast from IMD, New Delhi

State Met Centres

Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs

Postal Contact

Personal Contact

Radio News Papers

KVK /NGOs

State Agril. Dept.

Farmer

TelevisionTelevision

Mobile Mobile

Website

State Reuter Market Light

Handygo Nokia IFFCO Vritti Solution

State Govt. Maharashtra

Total Statewise

Years → 2010 April2011

2010 April2011

2010 April2011

2010 April2011

2010 April2011

2010 April2011

2010 April2011

Andhra Pradesh

- - - - - 45000 57961 61298 - - - - 57961 106298

Bihar - - - - - - 6219 200329 - - - - 6219 200329Gujarat 16144 34451 400 - - 50000 6145 46336 - - - - 22689 130787Haryana 20556 23154 700 100000 - - 101699 32458 - - - - 122955 155612Himachal - - - - - - 17994 8178 - - - - 17994 8178

Karnataka - - - - - 40000 49327 60815 - - - - 49327 100815Kerala - - - - 25000 44377 16210 - - - - 44377 41210

Madhya Pradesh

- - - - - 35000 39910 84466 - - - - 39910 119466

Maharashtra

119116 142780 500 - - 80000 45902 35345 2300 3200 26000 26000 193818 287325

Orissa - - - - - - 8276 73729 - - - - 8276 73729

Punjab 43334 54260 750 - - 35000 27439 24392 - - - - 71523 113652Rajasthan - - - - - 35000 77162 94963 - - - - 77162 129963

Tamilnadu - - - - - 50000 68422 34005 - - - - 68422 84005Uttar

Pradesh- - - - - 105000 353205 279768 - - - - 353205 384768

West Bengal

104 1625 700 - - - 5981 27599 - - - - 6785 29224

Total 199254

256270

3050 100000

- 500000

910019 1079891

2300 3200 26000 26000

1140623 1965361

Total SMS send by Agromet Field Units Dapoli, Hissar, Ranital, Anantpur, Lembucherea, Mulde 14633

Dissemination Through Mobile Phones

Endorsements & Appreciations

“ It is a Great Idea .. Do it Across the World. Great Work .. Keep It Up”

Barak Obama,President, U.S.A

Nov 7, 2010, Maharashtra

“Today, India is a leader in using technology to empower farmers, like those I met yesterday who get free updates on market and weather conditions on their cell phones”

Barak Obama,President, U.S.A

Nov.8, 2010, Joint Session of Parliament, New Delhi

Farmer Awareness Programme

Farmer’s Awareness Programmeon

Weather, Climate and Farmers

Awareness programme was organized at 50 locations in 2009. The objective of the programme is to make farmers more self-reliant in

dealing with weather and climate information and to increase the interaction between farmers and AAS providing agencies i.e. IMD, SAUs, ICAR etc.

The program will be organised in 80 stations by the end of 2010.

Brochure for AwarenessBrochure in different languages are prepared and ready for

circulation among the users

Nepali Oriya Punjabi Tamil Marathi

Hindi Assamees Gujarati ManipuriEnglish

Hosting of interactive website

A new interactive website launched on 15.4.11 to provide required information on AAS

Capacity Building

Meteorologists (Forecaster) NWP Interpretation of model out put for Preparation of location

specific weather forecast Agrometeorologists

Agromet Core Course Agromet Observers Course Meteorologists Grade II Training Course Familiarization Training Refresher Course Basic Agromet Course On the Job Training AMFU Technical Officer Training

Extension Officials Farmers

Linkages at District Level• 130 AMFU (one in ~ 5 Districts)

• 589 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (Farmer’s Science Centres) in 640 Districts

• Transfer of recommended technologies from NARS

• Impart skills through orientation programs to rural masses

• Organize vocational trainings, demonstrate latest technologies and its refinement in farmers’ field conditions

• Organize demonstrations to generate awareness & feedback

• Agro Technology Management Agencies (ATMA)

• District Agriculture/Horticulture Offices

• Common Service Centres (Village Level)

• Local Media

Feedback Issues & MechanismFeedback Collected on;

Quality of Forecast & relevance of Advisories Farmer get information from Whom & How? Problem solving through interactive mode Answering questions of common interest through bulletins Accessibility to information via ICT Accessibility to Experts

Mode of Feedback Collection; Through Personal Contact & Internet Through Media Agencies Prepare Questionnaire Surveys Farmers Meeting/Kisan Mela

Economic ImpactTwo studies conducted In general reduced cost of cultivationFruit crops cost of cultivation marginally

increased but production also increased Selecting sowing, irrigation & Pesticide

application are major determinants It is also observed that the yield increased by

almost 10-25% in most of the crops with maximum increase in the fruit crops

Limited awareness among users.

Establishment of District Agro-Meteorological Units Densify observational network (~33,000 AWS) Forecast at high resolution & Improvement for extreme weather Develop forewarning system for P&D Improved Dissemination Service to Crop Growers Association Application of Remote Sensing in AAS Establishment of Connectivity Training (Farmer, Extension Specialist, Scientists) Economic impact assessment Weather Based Crop Insurance

Future PlanFuture Plan