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Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in MozambiqueMarcelo Cunha, Luiz Gustavo A. de Souza & André Argollo
Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in Mozambique
INTRODUCTION
SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX (SAM)
INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH
MAIN RESULTS
FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
INTRODUCTION
THE GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY PROJECT (GSB)
Feasibility and desirability of sustainable bioenergy-
intensive future
It is physically possible for bioenergy to sustainably
meet a substantial fraction of future demand for
energy services (≥ 25% of global mobility or
equivalent by 2050) while feeding humanity and
meeting other needs from managed lands, preserving
wildlife habitat, and maintaining environmental
quality?
BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf-Cane-I
Sustainable production of Bioenergy
Availability of fertile land with good climatic conditions
Land for Bioenergy will originate from pasture
Potencially available land for bioenergy until 2050 (440
Mha) FAO (2007)
LA & Caribbean (250 Mha) and Africa (180 Mha) FAO
(2007)
LACAf-Cane, evaluate bioethanol production from
sugarcane and bioelectricity
BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf-Cane-I
The focus of the LACAf-Cane-I project is on sugarcane and
other energy crops
The produced feedstock is expected to be used for
bioenergy: bioethanol (for gasoline substitution) and
bioelectricity, both using advanced first and second-
generation technologies
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil
fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing
countries (Schut et al., 2010)
Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in
agricultural research and development, offer farmers a
new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)
Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable
energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al.,
2009)
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
Is one of the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan
Africa, with a growth of around 7% per year since 90’s.
(World Bank, 2008)
Despite having much more propitious agro-climatic
conditions, vulnerability to chronic food insecurity is
highest in the Northern provinces
36 million ha are arable, of which approximately 10% is
under cultivation
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
Because of the country’s fertile lands and favorable
climate, Mozambique is attractive for agriculture, which
employs 80% of the estimated 8.8 million labor force, the
remaining 20% is involved in the industrial, transport,
communication and service sectors (Schut et al., 2010;
World Bank, 2009)
Mozambique is 100% dependent on oil imports. In 2007
around 17% of total imports value was spent in fuel and
energy
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil
fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing
countries (Schut et al., 2010)
Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in
agricultural research and development, offer farmers a
new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)
Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable
energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al.,
2009)
WHY MOZAMBIQUE?
Mozambique produces mainly sugarcane for sugar
production
Initiated in 2004, biofuel production originally dominated
by small-scale farmers, now by foreign commercial
Originally the focus was primarily on jatropha biodiesel,
now there is increased emphasis on bioethanol derived
from sugarcane and sorghum
Source: Africametro (2015)
Build a framework to analyze sustainable production
of bioethanol
Evaluate socioeconomic impacts
The importance of households consumption
Inter-sectorial relationship
Analysis of different scenarios
OBJECTIVES
THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE
Channing Arndt & James Thurlow (2007)
United Nations University’s World Institute for
Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Use Tables from National Account
Govenment Budget
Payment Balance
54 products/sectors
METICAL MOZAMBIQUE = 0,0251 EURO
X1 Q1 amaiz Maize X28 Q28 abeve BeveragesX2 Q2 asorg Sorghum and millet X29 Q29 aptob Tobacco curing and processingX3 Q3 arice Rice X30 Q30 apcot Cotton ginningX4 Q4 acass Cassava X31 Q31 atext Textiles and clothingX5 Q5 aroot Other root crops X32 Q32 aleat Leather productsX6 Q6 abean Pulses X33 Q33 awood Wood productsX7 Q7 agnut Groundnuts X34 Q34 apapr Paper and publishingX8 Q8 acash Cashews X35 Q35 afuel Other fuelsX9 Q9 aoils Oilseeds X36 Q36 achem ChemicalsX10 Q10 avege Vegetables X37 Q37 anmet Non-metalsX11 Q11 afrui Fruits X38 Q38 ametl MetalsX12 Q12 altea Leaf tea X39 Q39 amach Machinery and vehiclesX13 Q13 atoba Tobacco X40 Q40 aoman Other manufacturingX14 Q14 asugr Sugarcane X41 Q41 aelec ElectricityX15 Q15 acott Cotton X42 Q42 awatr WaterX16 Q16 aocrp Other crops X43 Q43 acons ConstructionX17 Q17 acatt Cattle X44 Q44 atrad Retail and wholesale tradeX18 Q18 apoul Poultry X45 Q45 ahotl Hotels and cateringX19 Q19 aoliv Other livestock X46 Q46 atran Transport and storageX20 Q20 afore Forestry X47 Q47 acomm Communication and postX21 Q21 afish Fisheries X48 Q48 afsrv Financial servicesX22 Q22 angas Natural gas X49 Q49 areal Real estateX23 Q23 amine Other mining X50 Q50 absrv Business servicesX24 Q24 ameat Meat, fish and dairy X51 Q51 apadm Government administrationX25 Q25 agmll Grain milling X52 Q52 aeduc EducationX26 Q26 apsug Sugar refining X53 Q53 aheal HealthX27 Q27 afood Other food processing X54 Q54 aosrv Other private services
THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE
MATRIZ DE CONTABILIDADE SOCIAL PARA MOÇAMBIQUE
ACTIVITIES PRODUCTS FACTORS FIRMS HOUSEHOLDS GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS ROW TOTAL
ACTIVITIES 311,851 311,851
PRODUCTS 121,387 66,425 166,101 24,598 31,754 63,959 474,224
FACTORS 190,464 4,936 195,400
FIRMS 56,952 4,691 2,601 64,245
HOUSEHOLDS 123,313 47,852 4,436 175,601
GOVERNMENT 16,996 1,850 9,427 4,861 11,314 44,448
SAVINGS 3,288 4,639 8,859 -1,720 14,968 30,034
ROW 78,951 13,285 3,678 1,865 97,779
TOTAL 311,851 474,224 195,400 64,245 175,601 44,448 30,034 97,779 1,393,581
INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH
Miller & Blair (1985)
vector (nx1), total value of sectorial production
vector (nx1), final demand values
matrix (nxn), technical coefficients of production
Total needed production to satisfy the final demand, where
Is the matrix of direct and indirect multipliers, or Leontief
Matrix
INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH
Miller & Blair (1985)
Induced effect, the households consumption must be
endogeneized
INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH
Guilhoto & Sesso Filho (2005) estimation procedure
Ethanol coefficients from Brazillian I-O Matrix
Production Multipliers – Type I and II
Building Scenarios
INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE
I-O MATRIX
amaiz asorg ariceacass
aroot
abean
agnut
acash
aoils
avege
afrui
altea
atoba
asugr
acott
aocrp
acatt
apoul
aoliv
afore
afish
angas
amine
ameatagmll
apsugafoodabeveaptobapcot
atextaleat
awood
apapr
afuel
achem
anmet
ametl
amach
aoman
aelec
awatr
acons
atrad
ahotl
atran
acomm
afsrv
areal
absrv
apadm
aeducaheal
aosrv aETH
0.000
2.000
4.000
MP-I
INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE I PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER
INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE II PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER
amaiz asorgariceacass
aroot
abean
agnut
acash
aoils
avege
afrui
altea
atoba
asugr
acott
aocrp
acatt
apoul
aoliv
afore
afish
angas
amine
ameat
agmllapsug
afoodabeveaptobapcotatextaleat
awood
apapr
afuel
achem
anmet
ametl
amach
aoman
aelec
awatr
acons
atrad
ahotl
atran
acomm
afsrv
areal
absrv
apadm
aeduc
ahealaosrv
aETHHouseh
0.000
2.000
4.000
MP-II
FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
INITIAL STAGE
NEXT STEPS
BUILDING AND EVALUATING SCENARIOS
Grazie!
Luiz Gustavo Antonio de Souza
luizgustavoeco@gmail.com
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