Industries “Keeping the Water Flowing Through Better...

Industries

“Keeping the Water Flowing Through

Better Forecasting and Demand

Collaboration”

NCOAUG Training Day

Drury Lane

Oakbrook, IL

August 16, 2013

Management Consulting

• Supply Chain Transformation

• Process Experts

• Sr. Level Industry Professionals

Avata – Company Overview

Implementation Services

• Oracle VCP

• Oracle VCE

• Technical Experts

VCP/VCE Hosting & BPS

• Managed Services / Support

• Hosting & Cloud Services

• Business Process Services

VCP/VCE Hosting & BPS

• Managed Services / Support

• Hosting & Cloud Services

• Business Process Services

Education & Training

• VCP Training (Pre, Project, Post)

• Supply Chain Education, Workshops, Seminars, Advisory

Core Services

• Oracle Value Chain Planning Introduction 10m

• Hunter Industries – Solution Overview 25m

• Questions 5m

Agenda

Oracle Value Chain Planning

• Extension to core Oracle ERP solution(s)

• The Oracle Value Chain solution is set of end to end decision support tools that provide advanced supply chain planning analysis and optimization capability across critical business functions

• VCP enables supply chain planning processes such as Strategic Network Planning, Demand Planning, Promotion Planning, Supply Planning, Sales & Operations Planning, Finite Scheduling, Order Promising, Inventory Planning, and what-if analysis.

• These tools are modular in nature and allow organizations to evolve based on business need and organization readiness

• The Oracle Value Chain Solution enables your organization to automate and accurately manage key planning processes, integrated with execution processes such as order management, procurement, and shop floor management

� Demantra – is one component of the VCP suite of applications enabling Forecasting/Demand Planning/ S&OP/ Trade Promotion Planning

What is Oracle Value Chain Planning (VCP)

Demand

Signal

Management

Demand

Management

Inventory

Optimization

Strategic

Network

Optimization

Advanced

Supply

Chain

Planning

Global

Order

Promising

Production

Scheduling

Service

Parts

Planning

Collaboration and Vendor Managed Inventory

Sales and Operations Planning

Advanced Planning Command Center

Trade Promotion Management

Forecast Safety stock Sourcing rules Constrained supply

Planned production ordersSafety stock

Demand

Complete ● Open ● Integrated ● Modular

Risk Management

Integrated Successive Refinement

Hunter

Demand Management

Source ERP (EBS, JDE) Advanced Planning

Strategic

Network

Optimization

Advanced

Supply Chain

Planning

Predictive

Trade Planning

and Optimization

Real-Time

Sales and

Operations

Planning

Collaborative Planning

Production

Scheduling

Demand variability

and forecast error

Demand

scenarios

Promotional lift and

decomposition

Range forecast and

forecast accuracy

• Shipment history

• Booking history

• Sales forecast

• Manufacturing forecast

• Items and categories

• Organizations

• Customers

• Calendars

• UOM and currency conversions

• Price lists

• Hierarchies (product family and product category, time, ship from, geography, customer, demand class, sales channel)

Demand

scenarios

and priority

Collaborative Planning

Inventory

Optimization

Integrated Value Chain Planning Solution

Demand – Where it all starts

Sales

History

Sales

Forecast

New

Products

Financial

Inputs

Causals

Develop Baseline

Demand Plan

Customer

Forecast

Demand Capture Sales & Operations Planning Supply Execution

Judge / Adjust

Demand Plan

Sales

Feedback

Finalize Consensus

Demand Plan

Operations

Feedback

Product

MixCustomer

Feedback

Backlog &

Shipments

Plan Finished Product

Execute Planning

Recommendations

Measure/ Monitor

Shipments

Inventory

Supply Plan

One View Of Demand. Increased Responsiveness. Higher Accuracy.

Distribute

Executive

Feedback

Hunter

Demand

Management (DM)

Web-Based User Interface

Workflow Driven

Common Platform

Real-Time

Sales & Operations

Planning (RTSOP)

Oracle Demantra Footprint

Advanced

Forecasting and

Demand Modeling

(AFDM)

Deduction &

Settlement

Management (DSM)

Predictive Trade

Planning (PTP)

Hunter

• Statistical Forecasting , Demand

Management, S&OP› Multiple demand streams

› Consensus Forecasting

› Supply & Demand Balancing

• Unlimited hierarchies to model all

planning data:› Products and product families

› Plants and distribution networks

› Customer ship-locations including DCs and stores

› Sales territories and customer account relationships

• Edit and view data at multiple levels in

hierarchy of choice› Use lower level data for higher level forecasting

› Use higher level data for lower level forecasting

Sales

Marketing

Demantra Overview

Demantra – Demand ManagementExcel-like Workbook Key data series

Process

Key data series

used in

Demand Mgt

Process

Graphical

representation

Color coded

key issues

Color coded

cells to direct

attention to

key issues

Demantra – Demand Management

Task Oriented Workbench

Alerts,

Exceptions,

Messages

Personalized

Worksheets

KPI’s

Hunter Industries

Solution Overview

Hunter Industries– Company Overview

Company Overview

• Designs and manufactures irrigation equipment for landscape and golf course industries worldwide (rotors, sprays, sprinklers, valves, central control systems)

• 6 manufacturing facilities

• Residential, Commercial, Golf Courses, Municipal, Parks, Sports Fields

• Distributor model (US, International)

Problem Solved

• Inaccurate forecasting at the sku level >> missed shipments and higher expediting costs; over $1M in Excess shipping 2010 attributed to forecast accuracy

• Cumbersome process using worksheets and Access DB that relied on the knowledge of one person

• Forecast not integrated into ERP system

Unique aspects of implementation

• Multi-tier collaborative forecasting

• Demantra “Net” Pricing

Hunter Industries – Key Demand Mgt. Objectives

• Allows visibility to forecast accuracy at multiple tiers providing focus on

areas for improvement

• Integrate to source ERP to drive additional planning (MPS, MRP) and

additional reporting

• Develop a more accurate forecast beyond the next 90 days to support

proper lead times

• Support a more efficient process for introducing new products and

managing product lifecycle.

• Support more collaboration and multi-user concurrency

• Provide comparative analysis between stakeholder forecasts (Sales,

Product Managers, Operations)

• Provides influences of Sales knowledge during forecast process

• Eliminates need for independent and external third party Access database

Hunter Industries - Critical Design Tenants

• Define the business process

• Define the stakeholders having a role in the process; identify role based

requirements (aggregation, data series, UOM, time bucket, historical

periods, future periods)

• Develop a tier-based workflow

• Define what level of information (Item, Customer) is required to forecast

accurately

• Separate forecasting vs. reporting needs; Leverage Demantra for

Forecasting and base reporting; Leverage BI tools for Enhanced Reporting

• Scalability -- Anticipate future business growth

• Design for the future but deploy with crawl, walk, run approach

Hunter Industries - Demand Management Process

Source

Data

Loads

Skus: 40,000

Customers: 7,000

Unique Combinations: 370,000

Sales History Records: 10,000,000

Time Bucket: Monthly

Hunter Industries - Defining the Item Hierarchy

Hunter Industries - Defining the Location Hierarchy

Tier 1 (Product Managers) – Forecasting View

Tabular

View

(Monthly)

Hierarchy

(Forecast

Code) Tabular

View

(Yearly)

Bar Chart

View

(Monthly)

Tier 2 (Senior Product Manager) – Forecasting View

Tabular

View

(Monthly)

Hierarchy

(Product

Line) Tabular

View

(Yearly)

Line Chart

View

(Monthly)

Hunter Industries - Demantra Roadmap (12 mo)

� Process and Technology (Demantra) roll-out to Field Sales team (Now)

› 43 new worksheets; 10 new users

� Additional process and system training for all stakeholders >>

Continuous Improvement (2013)

� Enhanced Statistics and Reporting >> Addition of Causal Factors

influencing demand (2013)

� Demantra Version upgrade > 12.2.x (2014)

� Enhanced Sales & Operations Planning >> Supply Plan visibility (2014)

Field Sales ForecastEnhanced Training

and TechniquesEnhanced Statistics

and ReportingDemantra Version

UpdateEnhanced Sales &

Operations Planning

Hunter Industries - Results

• Enterprise Forecasting and Demand Management solution in place;

is scalable and will support Hunter’s growth and acquisition path

• Forecasting process completed over three days vs. 7 days

• Backorders reduced

• Finished goods inventory reduced

• Production schedule more stable

• Business plans and decisions based on accurate sales forecast

• Expanding solution to include Field Sales team for further customer

ship-to visibility

Hunter Industries - Key Project Takeaways

• Document your objectives and key requirements

• Start simple and have a roadmap

• Understand your data and how Demantra interprets this data

• Prototype/CRP1; Validate design assumptions

• Train early and often

• Change management/Communication is critical

• Document core business scenarios requiring testing

• Perform multiple CRP and Integrated System Test Cycles

• Have a roadmap for solution enhancement

• Understand project resource needs

• Evaluate a project phase gate approach (Project Delivery/Chg. Mgt.)

• Perform a QA check 1mo, 2mo, 3mo after go-live

Partnering with AVATA

Duane HardacreManaging Partner

West & Central NA Sales

Tel: (+1) 586-764-5556

Duane.Hardacre@AVATA.com

CONTACTS

Denver, CO New York, NY

Stefan AchillesManaging PartnerEurope & East NA Sales

USA: (+1) 404-931-5562

EUR: (+49) 172-288-8281

Stefan.Achilles@AVATA.com

Ken SpigarelliManaging Partner

Operations

Tel: (+1) 734-231-1311

Ken.Spigarelli@AVATA.com

Anil ThomasManaging PartnerOperations

Tel: (+1) 917-921-9631

Anil.Thomas@AVATA.com

Charlotte NourrigatRegional Sales & ServicesEurope

Tel: (+41) 78 606 25 79

Charlotte.Nourrigat@AVATA.com

Kurt HallerRegional Sales

West & Central NA

Tel: (+1) 773-251-0233

Kurt.Haller@AVATA.com

John ParsonsRegional SalesCentral & East NA

Tel: (+1) 386-237-5113John.Parsons@AVATA.com

Mike RieglerSr. DirectorValue Chain Execution

Tel: (+1) 610-213-1351

Mike.Riegler@avata.com

Austin, Texas

OFFICES

Kerri Diblik

Marketing Manager

Tel: (+1) 847-217-5161

Kerri.Diblik@AVATA.com

Europe - Germany

Q U E S T I O N S

A N S W E R S

Q&A