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Industries
“Keeping the Water Flowing Through
Better Forecasting and Demand
Collaboration”
NCOAUG Training Day
Drury Lane
Oakbrook, IL
August 16, 2013
Management Consulting
• Supply Chain Transformation
• Process Experts
• Sr. Level Industry Professionals
Avata – Company Overview
Implementation Services
• Oracle VCP
• Oracle VCE
• Technical Experts
VCP/VCE Hosting & BPS
• Managed Services / Support
• Hosting & Cloud Services
• Business Process Services
VCP/VCE Hosting & BPS
• Managed Services / Support
• Hosting & Cloud Services
• Business Process Services
Education & Training
• VCP Training (Pre, Project, Post)
• Supply Chain Education, Workshops, Seminars, Advisory
Core Services
• Oracle Value Chain Planning Introduction 10m
• Hunter Industries – Solution Overview 25m
• Questions 5m
Agenda
Oracle Value Chain Planning
• Extension to core Oracle ERP solution(s)
• The Oracle Value Chain solution is set of end to end decision support tools that provide advanced supply chain planning analysis and optimization capability across critical business functions
• VCP enables supply chain planning processes such as Strategic Network Planning, Demand Planning, Promotion Planning, Supply Planning, Sales & Operations Planning, Finite Scheduling, Order Promising, Inventory Planning, and what-if analysis.
• These tools are modular in nature and allow organizations to evolve based on business need and organization readiness
• The Oracle Value Chain Solution enables your organization to automate and accurately manage key planning processes, integrated with execution processes such as order management, procurement, and shop floor management
� Demantra – is one component of the VCP suite of applications enabling Forecasting/Demand Planning/ S&OP/ Trade Promotion Planning
What is Oracle Value Chain Planning (VCP)
Demand
Signal
Management
Demand
Management
Inventory
Optimization
Strategic
Network
Optimization
Advanced
Supply
Chain
Planning
Global
Order
Promising
Production
Scheduling
Service
Parts
Planning
Collaboration and Vendor Managed Inventory
Sales and Operations Planning
Advanced Planning Command Center
Trade Promotion Management
Forecast Safety stock Sourcing rules Constrained supply
Planned production ordersSafety stock
Demand
Complete ● Open ● Integrated ● Modular
Risk Management
Integrated Successive Refinement
Hunter
Demand Management
Source ERP (EBS, JDE) Advanced Planning
Strategic
Network
Optimization
Advanced
Supply Chain
Planning
Predictive
Trade Planning
and Optimization
Real-Time
Sales and
Operations
Planning
Collaborative Planning
Production
Scheduling
Demand variability
and forecast error
Demand
scenarios
Promotional lift and
decomposition
Range forecast and
forecast accuracy
• Shipment history
• Booking history
• Sales forecast
• Manufacturing forecast
• Items and categories
• Organizations
• Customers
• Calendars
• UOM and currency conversions
• Price lists
• Hierarchies (product family and product category, time, ship from, geography, customer, demand class, sales channel)
Demand
scenarios
and priority
Collaborative Planning
Inventory
Optimization
Integrated Value Chain Planning Solution
Demand – Where it all starts
Sales
History
Sales
Forecast
New
Products
Financial
Inputs
Causals
Develop Baseline
Demand Plan
Customer
Forecast
Demand Capture Sales & Operations Planning Supply Execution
Judge / Adjust
Demand Plan
Sales
Feedback
Finalize Consensus
Demand Plan
Operations
Feedback
Product
MixCustomer
Feedback
Backlog &
Shipments
Plan Finished Product
Execute Planning
Recommendations
Measure/ Monitor
Shipments
Inventory
Supply Plan
One View Of Demand. Increased Responsiveness. Higher Accuracy.
Distribute
Executive
Feedback
Hunter
Demand
Management (DM)
Web-Based User Interface
Workflow Driven
Common Platform
Real-Time
Sales & Operations
Planning (RTSOP)
Oracle Demantra Footprint
Advanced
Forecasting and
Demand Modeling
(AFDM)
Deduction &
Settlement
Management (DSM)
Predictive Trade
Planning (PTP)
Hunter
• Statistical Forecasting , Demand
Management, S&OP› Multiple demand streams
› Consensus Forecasting
› Supply & Demand Balancing
• Unlimited hierarchies to model all
planning data:› Products and product families
› Plants and distribution networks
› Customer ship-locations including DCs and stores
› Sales territories and customer account relationships
• Edit and view data at multiple levels in
hierarchy of choice› Use lower level data for higher level forecasting
› Use higher level data for lower level forecasting
Sales
Marketing
Demantra Overview
Demantra – Demand ManagementExcel-like Workbook Key data series
Process
Key data series
used in
Demand Mgt
Process
Graphical
representation
Color coded
key issues
Color coded
cells to direct
attention to
key issues
Demantra – Demand Management
Task Oriented Workbench
Alerts,
Exceptions,
Messages
Personalized
Worksheets
KPI’s
Hunter Industries
Solution Overview
Hunter Industries– Company Overview
Company Overview
• Designs and manufactures irrigation equipment for landscape and golf course industries worldwide (rotors, sprays, sprinklers, valves, central control systems)
• 6 manufacturing facilities
• Residential, Commercial, Golf Courses, Municipal, Parks, Sports Fields
• Distributor model (US, International)
Problem Solved
• Inaccurate forecasting at the sku level >> missed shipments and higher expediting costs; over $1M in Excess shipping 2010 attributed to forecast accuracy
• Cumbersome process using worksheets and Access DB that relied on the knowledge of one person
• Forecast not integrated into ERP system
Unique aspects of implementation
• Multi-tier collaborative forecasting
• Demantra “Net” Pricing
Hunter Industries – Key Demand Mgt. Objectives
• Allows visibility to forecast accuracy at multiple tiers providing focus on
areas for improvement
• Integrate to source ERP to drive additional planning (MPS, MRP) and
additional reporting
• Develop a more accurate forecast beyond the next 90 days to support
proper lead times
• Support a more efficient process for introducing new products and
managing product lifecycle.
• Support more collaboration and multi-user concurrency
• Provide comparative analysis between stakeholder forecasts (Sales,
Product Managers, Operations)
• Provides influences of Sales knowledge during forecast process
• Eliminates need for independent and external third party Access database
Hunter Industries - Critical Design Tenants
• Define the business process
• Define the stakeholders having a role in the process; identify role based
requirements (aggregation, data series, UOM, time bucket, historical
periods, future periods)
• Develop a tier-based workflow
• Define what level of information (Item, Customer) is required to forecast
accurately
• Separate forecasting vs. reporting needs; Leverage Demantra for
Forecasting and base reporting; Leverage BI tools for Enhanced Reporting
• Scalability -- Anticipate future business growth
• Design for the future but deploy with crawl, walk, run approach
Hunter Industries - Demand Management Process
Source
Data
Loads
Skus: 40,000
Customers: 7,000
Unique Combinations: 370,000
Sales History Records: 10,000,000
Time Bucket: Monthly
Hunter Industries - Defining the Item Hierarchy
Hunter Industries - Defining the Location Hierarchy
Tier 1 (Product Managers) – Forecasting View
Tabular
View
(Monthly)
Hierarchy
(Forecast
Code) Tabular
View
(Yearly)
Bar Chart
View
(Monthly)
Tier 2 (Senior Product Manager) – Forecasting View
Tabular
View
(Monthly)
Hierarchy
(Product
Line) Tabular
View
(Yearly)
Line Chart
View
(Monthly)
Hunter Industries - Demantra Roadmap (12 mo)
� Process and Technology (Demantra) roll-out to Field Sales team (Now)
› 43 new worksheets; 10 new users
� Additional process and system training for all stakeholders >>
Continuous Improvement (2013)
� Enhanced Statistics and Reporting >> Addition of Causal Factors
influencing demand (2013)
� Demantra Version upgrade > 12.2.x (2014)
� Enhanced Sales & Operations Planning >> Supply Plan visibility (2014)
Field Sales ForecastEnhanced Training
and TechniquesEnhanced Statistics
and ReportingDemantra Version
UpdateEnhanced Sales &
Operations Planning
Hunter Industries - Results
• Enterprise Forecasting and Demand Management solution in place;
is scalable and will support Hunter’s growth and acquisition path
• Forecasting process completed over three days vs. 7 days
• Backorders reduced
• Finished goods inventory reduced
• Production schedule more stable
• Business plans and decisions based on accurate sales forecast
• Expanding solution to include Field Sales team for further customer
ship-to visibility
Hunter Industries - Key Project Takeaways
• Document your objectives and key requirements
• Start simple and have a roadmap
• Understand your data and how Demantra interprets this data
• Prototype/CRP1; Validate design assumptions
• Train early and often
• Change management/Communication is critical
• Document core business scenarios requiring testing
• Perform multiple CRP and Integrated System Test Cycles
• Have a roadmap for solution enhancement
• Understand project resource needs
• Evaluate a project phase gate approach (Project Delivery/Chg. Mgt.)
• Perform a QA check 1mo, 2mo, 3mo after go-live
Partnering with AVATA
Duane HardacreManaging Partner
West & Central NA Sales
Tel: (+1) 586-764-5556
CONTACTS
Denver, CO New York, NY
Stefan AchillesManaging PartnerEurope & East NA Sales
USA: (+1) 404-931-5562
EUR: (+49) 172-288-8281
Ken SpigarelliManaging Partner
Operations
Tel: (+1) 734-231-1311
Anil ThomasManaging PartnerOperations
Tel: (+1) 917-921-9631
Charlotte NourrigatRegional Sales & ServicesEurope
Tel: (+41) 78 606 25 79
Kurt HallerRegional Sales
West & Central NA
Tel: (+1) 773-251-0233
John ParsonsRegional SalesCentral & East NA
Tel: (+1) [email protected]
Mike RieglerSr. DirectorValue Chain Execution
Tel: (+1) 610-213-1351
Austin, Texas
OFFICES
Kerri Diblik
Marketing Manager
Tel: (+1) 847-217-5161
Europe - Germany
Q U E S T I O N S
A N S W E R S
Q&A
