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Implications, adaptations & policies for food security and livelihoods. Presented by Johann Bell. Authors. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Implications, adaptations & policies for food security and livelihoods
Presented by Johann Bell
This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.
Authors
Outline
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food Reef area, population growth, climate change
• Implications for food security Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg
Fiji • 42 kg of fish per person
per year
Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
The problem!
Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year
Coral reef area in Fiji
CountryLand area
(km2)
Reef area(km2)
Fiji 18,272 10,000*
New Caledonia 19,100 35,925
PNG 462,243 22,200*
Solomon Islands 27,556 8,535
Vanuatu 11,880 1,244
Annual coastal fish production (mt)
Reef area (km2) Reef fish Fw fish Total
10,000 30,000 ~4000 ~34,000
• Population in 2010 was 848,000
~ 40 kg of fish per person per year
Factors affecting availability of fish
Year Population
2010 848,000
2035 978,000
2050 1,060,000
2100 1, 330,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
• Population growth
Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person
35 3226
39
0
10
20
30
40
50Fiji
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)
Today
Effects of climate change
Additional effects of climate change
35 34 3228 26
20
37 9
15
0
10
20
30
40
50Fiji
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change
How best to fill the gap?
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Adaptations and policies
Qua
ntity
of fi
sh/h
abita
tQ
uanti
ty o
f fish
/hab
itat
Time
Well-managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish needed by growing population
Fish available from coastal stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Poorly-managed fisheries
Gap in supply of fish to be filled
Time
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from stocks
Fish habitat
Fish habitat
a)
b)
• Minimise the gap to be filled!
Adaptation decision framework
Lose-Lose
X X
Lose-Win
X
Win-Win
x
X
Long-term Loss Long-term GainN
ear-
term
Gai
nN
ear-
term
Los
sAddresses climate change
Addr
esse
s pr
esen
t driv
ers
After Grafton (2010)
Win-Lose
Win-win adaptationsManage and restore vegetation cover in catchments
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Improves resilience of coral reef, mangrove and seagrass habitats
Win-win adaptationsSustain production of fish stocks
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species
Win-win adaptations
Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Win-win adaptations
Improve post-harvest methods
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin
Win-win adaptationsDevelop pond aquaculture in rural and peri-urban areas
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Photo: Ben Ponia
Win-win adaptations
Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L?
Photo: Nathalie Behring
Other adaptationsProvide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Other adaptationsReduce and diversify catches of demersal fish
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Greater focus on herbivorous fish
Other adaptationsAllow for expansion of freshwater fish habitats
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Other adaptationsModify locations and infrastructure for aquaculture
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Suggested supporting policies
• Strengthen governance of agriculture, forestry and mining practices to prevent soil loss and pollution, to safeguard fish habitats and water quality
• Minimise barriers to migration of coastal and freshwater habitats
• Promote mangrove replanting programmes• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and
freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment
Suggested supporting policies
• Restrict export of demersal fish to retain them for national food security
• Increase access to tuna for the food security by reducing national allocations to industrial fleets
• Capitalise on opportunities for freshwater pond aquaculture
• Limit farming of Nile tilapia to catchments where tilapia species are already established, or there is a shortage of fish
Key investments
Surveys of best sites for installing inshore FADs Programmes to install and maintain FADs Identify prime locations for peri-urban and rural
pond aquaculture Hatcheries and networks to deliver juvenilesEvaluate merits of micro-credit schemes to develop
fisheries around FADs; expand pond aquaculture; and scale-up post-harvest processing
Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies and investments are needed
• Integrate adaptations and policies and investments into national strategies and action plans for climate change, including community-based actions supported by partners
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