Implications, adaptations & policies for food security and livelihoods

Presented by Johann Bell

This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.

Authors

Outline

• Factors affecting availability of fish for food Reef area, population growth, climate change

• Implications for food security Relative importance of population growth and

climate change

• Win-win adaptations

• Supporting policies

Plans to use fish for food security

• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year

• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

Fiji • 42 kg of fish per person

per year

Where does most fish come from?

• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses

Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay

The problem!

Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown

Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year

Coral reef area in Fiji

CountryLand area

(km2)

Reef area(km2)

Fiji 18,272 10,000*

New Caledonia 19,100 35,925

PNG 462,243  22,200*

Solomon Islands 27,556 8,535

Vanuatu 11,880 1,244

Annual coastal fish production (mt)

Reef area (km2) Reef fish Fw fish Total

10,000 30,000 ~4000 ~34,000

• Population in 2010 was 848,000

~ 40 kg of fish per person per year

Factors affecting availability of fish

Year Population

2010 848,000

2035 978,000

2050 1,060,000

2100 1, 330,000

Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme

• Population growth

Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person

35 3226

39

0

10

20

30

40

50Fiji

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

2035 (-2 to -5%)

2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)

Today

Effects of climate change

Additional effects of climate change

35 34 3228 26

20

37 9

15

0

10

20

30

40

50Fiji

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change

How best to fill the gap?

Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna

Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)

Adaptations and policies

Qua

ntity

of fi

sh/h

abita

tQ

uanti

ty o

f fish

/hab

itat

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly-managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Time

Fish available from stocks

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

Fish habitat

a)

b)

• Minimise the gap to be filled!

Adaptation decision framework

Lose-Lose

X X

Lose-Win

X

Win-Win

x

X

Long-term Loss Long-term GainN

ear-

term

Gai

nN

ear-

term

Los

sAddresses climate change

Addr

esse

s pr

esen

t driv

ers

After Grafton (2010)

Win-Lose

Win-win adaptationsManage and restore vegetation cover in catchments

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Improves resilience of coral reef, mangrove and seagrass habitats

Win-win adaptationsSustain production of fish stocks

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species

Win-win adaptations

Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Win-win adaptations

Improve post-harvest methods

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Photo: Jocelyn Carlin

Win-win adaptationsDevelop pond aquaculture in rural and peri-urban areas

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Photo: Ben Ponia

Win-win adaptations

Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L?

Photo: Nathalie Behring

Other adaptationsProvide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Other adaptationsReduce and diversify catches of demersal fish

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Greater focus on herbivorous fish

Other adaptationsAllow for expansion of freshwater fish habitats

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Other adaptationsModify locations and infrastructure for aquaculture

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Suggested supporting policies

• Strengthen governance of agriculture, forestry and mining practices to prevent soil loss and pollution, to safeguard fish habitats and water quality

• Minimise barriers to migration of coastal and freshwater habitats

• Promote mangrove replanting programmes• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and

freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment

Suggested supporting policies

• Restrict export of demersal fish to retain them for national food security

• Increase access to tuna for the food security by reducing national allocations to industrial fleets

• Capitalise on opportunities for freshwater pond aquaculture

• Limit farming of Nile tilapia to catchments where tilapia species are already established, or there is a shortage of fish

Key investments

Surveys of best sites for installing inshore FADs Programmes to install and maintain FADs Identify prime locations for peri-urban and rural

pond aquaculture Hatcheries and networks to deliver juvenilesEvaluate merits of micro-credit schemes to develop

fisheries around FADs; expand pond aquaculture; and scale-up post-harvest processing

Conclusions

• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities

• Supporting policies and investments are needed

• Integrate adaptations and policies and investments into national strategies and action plans for climate change, including community-based actions supported by partners