IGOR OKUNEV VICE-DEAN, SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, MOSCOW STATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL...

IGOR OKUNEVVICE -DEAN, SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE,

MOSCOW STATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OFMINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Geopolitical Codes in the Transatlantic Area

MARCH 8 , 2013THESSALONIKI , GREECE

4 T H CONFERENCE ON SECURITY, STRATEGY AND I NTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

March 8 - Women’s Day

No other country then Russia celebrates so widely and brightly the New York manifestation for women rights on March 8, 1908.

In modern Russia the day lost its political flavor, and became simply an occasion for men to express their love for women.

Geopolitical Codes

The manner in which a country orientates itself towards the world (Flint, 2011)

What are current and potential allies?What is current and potential enemies?How can we maintain our allies and nurture potential

allies?How can we counter our current enemies and

emerging threat?How do we justify the four culculations above to our

public, and to the global community? (Taylor and Flint, 2000)

USA Russia

Local (before XIX)

Regional (XIX-XX cc.)

Global (from WWII)

Local (before XVIII c.)

Regional (XVIII-XX cc.)

Global (from WWII till 1991)

Regional (from 1991)

Scales of Geopolitical Codes

Orientation of Geopolitical Codes in Russia

Debate of prowestern and antiwestern thinkers and policymakers from Ivan the Terrible (after Russia proclaimed itself as a leader of Eastern Christianity)

Mostly antiwestern population with prowestern leaders (Peter the Great)

Even in Soviet time: Absorbed western communism Anti - imperialism, Alter - western.

Now - face the period when the leadership becomes antiwestern after the population.

Russian Foreign Policy Doctrines

2001-2004 “European choice” (Putin, German Parliament)

2005-2008 Natural resources super power

2009-2012 Resources for modernization

2013 - Sovereignization

Dealing with Russian will mean dealing with V. Putin and it will not be easy (Trenin 2013) – realpolitik?

First Antiwestern Doctrine (2013)

Putin need to consolidate power at home challenged by big city protests in 2011-12

Cancellation of USAID and foreign NGOs activities (“foreign agents” - spies)

Anti US Magnitsky Act – adoption of Russian children

Restricting Russian officials to own assets and property abroad

Why?

Sovereign determination is build on opposition to the external theat.

Unequal status vis-à-vis the West (foreign aid recepient, democracy class drop-out)

New right national ideology formation. Russian no longer accept the values gap between itself ant the Europe but proudly advertise its own traditional values (national sovereignty, religious faith, traditional family). “Enchecked freedoms erode EU society. Europeans becomes too soft and giving up their former strengths”.

Turn to East

APEC Summit in Vladivostok

New opportunities in cooperation with China, India, Japan, ASEAN countries.

Need to develop Russian Far East.

Eurasian Union

The only goal for Putin is become history.

Not a new empire like H. Clinton called it.

Customs Union from 2009Economic Union from 2015

Belarus, KazakhstanKyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (2013-14) Ukraine – for EU “suitcase without a handle”: can

neither be carried forward, nor abandoned.Uzbekistan, Armenia - ?

Recommendations for Western policymakers

Proceed in no-visa process

Stress on economic cooperation

Cooperate on regional issues (Kaliningrad, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Arctic, Pacific)

Cooperate in missile defense and nuclear nonproliferation

No isolation

IGOR OKUNEV

IOKUNEV@MGIMO.RU

Thank you!