Hurricane Flooding in West Virginiapages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/2006 Fall GEO493GHurricaneFloods.pdf ·...

Hurricane Flooding in

West VirginiaJ. Steve Kite

WVU Geology & GeographyRevised 31 Oct 06

John Warner Photo Cheat River Bridge, St. George

Teets & Young, 1985

Plan of Attack• Hurricane Basics• Do Bad Floods Occur in “Hurricane Season?”• Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va.• Which Were Caused by Hurricanes?• What is Worst-Case Scenario Indicated by Other

Floods in Central Appalachians?

Drawing from Harper's Weekly, Historic Photo Collection, Harpers Ferry NHP 1870, Harpers Ferry

Hurricane Fran, Harpers Ferry, 8 September 1996 Photo by Terry Adams, National Park Service.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleTropical Storm — winds 39-73 mph

Hurricane Categories:

1 — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)

2 — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)

3 — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)

4 — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)

5 — winds >156 mph (>135 kt)

“Hurricanes” in this Talk Includes Tropical Cyclones & Organized Remnants of Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclones

Source: http://www.edgetech-us.com/Map/MapHurriZone.htm

W. Va. Flood Inventory Project

• 10 Worst Floods List for W. Va. Encyclopedia– List of ~144 Floods that Probably

Include the 10 Worst in WV History

• Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va.

W. Va. Flood Inventory

• 144 (+ 2) W.Va. Floods• 21 Predate NOAA Hurricane Maps• 119 Compared to Hurricane Maps

(Dates Too Poorly Known on Other 4 Floods)–61 (>50%) in June-Nov–14 Floods Associated with “Hurricanes”

• 7 In Sept, 4 in Aug, 2 in Oct, 1 in Nov, 1 in June–6 Possibly Associated with “Hurricanes”

• Secondary Cause? - More Research Needed

10 Most Deadly Floods in W. Va.• Ignores Deaths in Other States• W. Va. Damage Separated Out Where Possible • Many Terrible Floods Hit W.Va., but Left Most

Death & Destruction Elsewhere– Johnstown Flood, May 1889, >2200 Dead – March 1913: >467 Dead, $2,700,000,000 ($ 2003)– March 1936: 107 Dead, $3,600,000,000 ($ 2003)– Jan 1937: 137 Dead, $5,400,000,000 ($ 2003),

1,500,000 homeless, record WV flow: 654,000 ft3/s(Ohio River at Huntington)

2003 $ WV Damage

$ WV Damage

WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr

>12,500,000>650,00019-21

19.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min

Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.

July 181889

33,800,0002,500,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. Floods, landslides.

Paint, Cabin, Armstrong crk.

July 10-111932

19,900,0003,238,000225.74" rain in 4 hr. Floods, debris flows

Charleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961

13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.

Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943

30,700,0004,020,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.

North-Central WV

June 24-26

5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.

Cardwell Run + Ohio Co.July 191888

68,000,0005,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No Potomac flood!

Shenandoah R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870

1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hr.Eastern WV +Nov 4-61985

85,000,0005,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916

>220,000,000>50,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr

Buffalo Crk., Logan Co.

Feb 261972

Difficult toCompare

Different Eras

1800s’ Stigma=

2000s’ Windfall

Flood Damage

2003 $ WV Damage

$ WV Damage

>12,500,000>650,00019-21

July 181889

July 10-111932

13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr

North-Central WV

June 24-26

5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr

1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985

Feb 261972Adjust

for Inflation to 2003 $

Using Index by

Robert Sahr

Oregon State 2005

http://www.orst.edu/dept/pol_sci/fac/sahr/sahr.htm

2003 $ WV Damage

$ WV Damage

>12,500,000>650,00019-21

July 181889

July 10-111932

13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.

North-Central WV

June 24-26

5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.

1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985

Feb 261972

2003 $ WV Damage

5,600,000~39“Most appalling

cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run

+ Ohio Co.July 191888

68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No

Potomac flood!Shenandoah

R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870

1,025,000,00047Trop. L. after H. Juan

4-10” in 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985

85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916

>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam

failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972

Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia

2003 $ WV Damage

68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No

Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Primary Cause?

2003 $ WV Damage

68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No

Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?

2003 $ WV Damage

68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No

1,025,000,00047Atlantic Trop. Low

4 to 6” after H. JuanEastern WV +Nov 4-61985

Five Most Deadly Floods in West VirginiaWhich Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?

Hurricane Cause is a “Stretch” at Best!

2003 $ WV Damage

68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No

Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?

1985 Flood Books

Popular “Myth” of Hurricane Juan Route, 1985

Albright: Before & After The 1985 Flood

30 Oct

31 Oct

Path of Hurricane Juan

Oct-Nov 1985

Juan Was Off Map By

2 Nov 48 Hrs

Before Flood

Path of Hurricanes Bob (July) Danny (Aug) & Juan (Oct-Nov)

30 Oct

31 Oct

Path of Hurricanes Bob (July)

Danny (Aug)&

Juan (Oct-Nov)

24 Jul

25 Jul 18 Aug

19 Aug

20 Aug

17 Aug

“Bob

“Dan

“Juan”= O

pening Act

Map Source: Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.

Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.

>200 mm (>7.9”)

48 Hr Rainfall (3-5 Nov 1985)

Hurricane Juan “Myth Busted”

1985 Flood Mainly Caused by 3-5 Nov Tropical Storm

Not Hurricane Juan

Conditions that Favored Hurricane Juan also Favored Tropical Storm.

2003 $ WV Damage

>12,500,00019-2119.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min

July 181889

33,800,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr.

Floods, landslides.Paint, Cabin,

Armstrong crk. July 10-111932

19,900,000225.74" rain in 4 hr.

Floods, debris flowsCharleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961

13,800,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.

30,700,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.

North-Central WV

June 24-261950

Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia

2003 $ WV Damage

>12,500,00019-2119.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min

July 181889

33,800,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr.

Floods, landslides.Paint, Cabin,

Armstrong crk. July 10-111932

19,900,000225.74" rain in 4 hr.

Floods, debris flowsCharleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961

13,800,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.

30,700,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.

North-Central WV

June 24-261950

Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia

Which Floods Have a “Hurricane”as Primary or Contributing Cause?

18891870

19161932

Approximate Location of 10 Most Lethal W.Va. Floods

Top 10 Lethal W.Va. Floods Summary

• Distributed over State & Generations• >5.5” Rain in <48 Hr - Except Buffalo Crk• Most: 2 to 6 Hour Downpour• All = “Flash Floods”• 7 in Summer

– 4 in mid-July: 2 on July 19th

• None in March 1 to April 10!• Lethal Floods Not = USGS Record Floods

• Hurricanes are Not Worst Flood Killers

WEEKLY SUMMARY OF PEAK FLOWS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

Jan 1-

Jan 22

Feb 12

Apr 16-2

Jun 18

0-Aug 5

Aug 20-2

Sep 10

Oct 1-7

Oct 22

Nov 12

Dec 3-

Dec 24

-31Jan Dec

Mar May Jul OctJunFeb Apr Aug Sep Nov

Qmax Week by Week: All Events

Hurricane Season

USGS Gauge Records Data Through ~1989

•Which Floods Were Caused by Hurricanes?

$3,370,000,00051IsabelPendleton & other counties

19 Sep 2003

$8,900,000,000 +$14,200,000,000

25Frances + IvanNorthern Panhandle + 18 Other Counties

8-17 Sep 2004

Hurricane 8Shenandoah, Potomac

12-16 Oct 1942

>$700,000,000 (2,400,000,000?)

99HazelWidespread, incl. Preston, Tucker co.

13-17 Oct 1954

>$7,000,000,000200DianeRed Ck., Dry Fk. Tucker Co.

17 Aug 1955

$580,000,000In VA, WV

153 in VA

CamilleGreenbrier Co.19-20 Aug 1969

$17,700,000,000117Agnes + LRegional20-25 Jun 1972

$2,344,000,00022FranShenandoah, Potomac, Greenbrier

8 Sep 1996

Total US 2003 $US

DeadDetailsLocationDate

Other Important Hurricane Floods in WV

$395,000,00040Hurricane 1 + T.S.2

New, Kanawha River11-17 Aug 1940

East Coast Hurricane; Ohio R. flowed upstream

Kanawha record below Charleston, Elk, Little Kanawha, Gauley records

29 Sep 1861

Hurricane in Eastern WV

New, Kanawha record above Charleston, So. Branch Potomac

13-15 Sep 1878

Hurricane in VA, MD

Potomac, Shenandoah

30 Sep - 1 Oct 1896

$90,000,000T.S. 3?No. Panhandle3 Sep 1912

Hurricane in VA

New, Cherry2-3 Oct 1929

Total 2003 $Total DeadDetailsLocationDate

19851942

Approximate Location of “Hurricane” W.Va. Floods

19551954

19401878

18611929

19122004

Hurricane Floods Summary• Concentrated in Eastern W.Va.

– New-Greenbrier-Kanawha: 8 Events– Shenandoah-Potomac: 5 Events– Tucker County: 3 Events

• Few Concentrated in Western W.Va. – (1861, 1912, 1916?)

• Great Damage Regionally, but …• Fatalities Vary

Impact of “Hurricane” on West Virginia May Not Correlate to

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Travel Rate is Important Because it Determines Rain Amount & Intensity

Additional Moisture Sources Critical for Big, Bad Floods

IVANCategory 3 at Landfall in 2004

Hurricane Ivan

Approaches Cold Front

4:20 p.m. 16 Sept 2004

COLD FRONT

Gumley, Liam, 2005,MODIS Image Gallerywww.ssec.wisc.edu/

~gumley/modis_gallery/

Paths: Ivan

Follows Francis

Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan12.gif

Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan12.gif

313,000 ft3/s

Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA Sept 2004

~3 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s

HurricaneIvan

HurricaneFrances

Steep Falling Limb for Ohio River Flood: Led to Many River-Bank Failures

Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA June 1972372,000 ft3/s

>13 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s

HurricaneAgnes

More Typical Ohio River Falling Limb

LandslideSt. Marys, WV

Sept 2004J.S. Kite Photo

St. Marys, WVSept 2004

J.S. Kite Photo

St. Marys, WVSept 2004

J.S. Kite Photo

Hugo (Category 4 at Landfall in 1989)

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1989hugo.html

Hurricane Hugo (1989)

Category 4 at Landfall -135 mph winds, 934 mbpressure

$10,000,000,000 Damage: Most $ in US History (…until Andrew, 1992)

92 Dead in Puerto Rico & Mainland USA

Directly Over W.Va.Result?

Guyandotte River at Baileyville, 1989 Flows

1989 FLOW ON GUYANDOTTE RIVER NEAR BAILYVILLE, WV

GUYANDOTTE RIVER NEAR BAILEYSVILLE 2001 vs. 1989

0 ft3 /s

22 Sep

21 Sep

23 Sep

> 50 mphPath of

Hurricane Hugo 1989

Hurricane Camille, Nelson Co., VA 1969Hurricane Camille

(1969)

Category 5 at Landfall -190-200 mph winds, 909 mb pressure

24 foot Storm Surge$1,421,000,000 Damage143 Dead on Gulf CoastDirectly Over W.Va., Va.Result?

Worst-Case Scenario

• Morgan, B.A., Iovine G., Chirico, P., and WIECZOREK, G.F., 1999, Inventory of Debris Flows and Floods in the Lovingston and Horseshoe Mountain, Va, 7.5' Quadrangles, from the August 19/20, 1969, Storm in Nelson County, Virginia, USGS Open-file Report 99-518, URL: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/ofr-99-0518/ofr-99-0518.html

Hurricane Camille8 Hour Precipitation

W.Va. 50 miles

Virginia Division of Mineral Resources, 2005, Landslides & Debris Flow, URL: www.mme.state.va.us/Dmr/DOCS/Hazard/slide.html

153 Dead or Missing in VA 126 Nelson County Residents (> 1 % of county.)

54 Killed along 4-Mile Stretch of Davis Creek

Wieczorek, G.F., Mossa, G.S., Morgan, B. A., 2004, Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province, USA: Landslides, v. 1, p. 33-59. URL: http://landslides.usgs.gov/docs/wieczorek/blueridge_sm.pdf

Shaded relief map: Debris flows (red) & flooding (orange)Nelson County, Virginia, August 19–20, 1969Wieczorek et al., 2004, Landslides, 1: 33-59

Worst-Case “Hurricane” ScenarioInteraction of Hurricane Remnants with

Another Storm or Unstable Moist Air

Training Thunderstorms Stall Over a Small Area

Rain 15-20 Inches in 3-6 hrs in Mountains

(Mine Spoil Could Make it Even Worse)

Hurricane Flooding in West Virginiapages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/2006 Fall GEO493GHurricaneFloods.pdf ·...

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