Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to...

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew OswaldUniversity of Warwick, UK

I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.

Human beings have feelings.

Humans have feelings, and feelings matter.

• What happens as we get older?

Is there scientific evidence for a midlife crisis?

The bottom line today

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

• It is scientifically unexplained

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

• It is scientifically unexplained

• There is a possibility that it is somehow biological.

How do researchers study such a thing?

Using random samples from many nations:

Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of

(i)

(ii)

Using random samples from many nations:

Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of

(i) individuals

(ii) nations.

Regression equations

Regression equations

Mental well-being = f(Age, gender, education level, income, marital status, friendship networks, region, year…)

Big effects on happiness:

Unemployment

Divorce

Marriage

Bereavement

Friendship networks

HealthNo effects from children [but + for grandchildren: Nick Powdthavee]

Here is the key fact:

The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group

Ave

rag

e li

fe s

atis

fact

ion

sco

re

This holds in various settings

The latest UK government data(Sample: 100,000 Britons) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

Recent US data (Sample: 400,000 Americans) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

The probability of depression by ageMales, LFS data set 2004-2006

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Year of birth

Reg

ress

ion

co

effi

cien

t

-0.014

-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2

Year of birth

Reg

ress

ion

co

effi

cien

t

The Relationship Between the Probability of Antidepressant Use and Age (European nations)

But what causes the midlife dip?

But what causes the midlife dip?

It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world.

But what causes the midlife dip?

It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world. 65+ nations so far.

Why?

Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

But researchers around the world must now consider throwing away that theory.

• Weiss, A., King, J.E., Inoue-Murayam, M., Matsuzama, T. and Oswald, A.J. (2012). ‘Evidence for a midlife crisis in great apes consistent with the U-shape in human well-being’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, vol. 109, pp. 19949-19952.

Happiness in humans

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70

Age group

Ave

rage

life

sat

isfa

ctio

n sc

ore

Happiness in great apes

There is also new, and truly longitudinal, cross-national evidence.

Cheng, T., Powdthavee, N., and Oswald, A.J. (2015). ‘Longitudinal evidence for a midlife low in human well-being: Results from four data sets’, Economic Journal, forthcoming.

We exploit the properties of a quadratic.

Fig. 1. A Non-Technical Illustration of the Equivalence Between a U-Shape in Life Satisfaction and a Positive Gradient in a Change-in-Life-Satisfaction Function

Life

sati

sfac

tion

(a)

(b)

Age

Age A0

Chan

ge in

life

sati

sfac

tion

What lesson might be drawn?

What lesson might be drawn?

• A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

What lesson might be drawn?

• A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

However, currently, this puzzle remains to be understood:

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group

Ave

rag

e li

fe s

atis

fact

ion

sco

re

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew Oswald (happily oldish)

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew Oswald (happily oldish)

Downloadable papers: www.andrewoswald.com