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Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

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Page 1: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew OswaldUniversity of Warwick, UK

I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.

Page 2: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Human beings have feelings.

Page 3: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 4: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 5: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 6: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 7: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Humans have feelings, and feelings matter.

Page 8: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

• What happens as we get older?

Page 9: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 10: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Is there scientific evidence for a midlife crisis?

Page 11: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 12: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 13: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The bottom line today

Page 14: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

Page 15: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

Page 16: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

• It is scientifically unexplained

Page 17: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The bottom line today

• There really is a midlife low

• It happens equally in men and women

• It is scientifically unexplained

• There is a possibility that it is somehow biological.

Page 18: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

How do researchers study such a thing?

Page 19: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Using random samples from many nations:

Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of

(i)

(ii)

Page 20: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Using random samples from many nations:

Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of

(i) individuals

(ii) nations.

Page 21: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Regression equations

Page 22: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Regression equations

Mental well-being = f(Age, gender, education level, income, marital status, friendship networks, region, year…)

Page 23: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Big effects on happiness:

Unemployment

Divorce

Marriage

Bereavement

Friendship networks

HealthNo effects from children [but + for grandchildren: Nick Powdthavee]

Page 24: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Here is the key fact:

Page 25: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group

Ave

rag

e li

fe s

atis

fact

ion

sco

re

Page 26: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

This holds in various settings

Page 27: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The latest UK government data(Sample: 100,000 Britons) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

Page 28: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Recent US data (Sample: 400,000 Americans) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

Page 29: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The probability of depression by ageMales, LFS data set 2004-2006

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Year of birth

Reg

ress

ion

co

effi

cien

t

Page 30: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

-0.014

-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2

Year of birth

Reg

ress

ion

co

effi

cien

t

Page 31: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

The Relationship Between the Probability of Antidepressant Use and Age (European nations)

Page 32: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

But what causes the midlife dip?

Page 33: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

But what causes the midlife dip?

It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world.

Page 34: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

But what causes the midlife dip?

It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world. 65+ nations so far.

Page 35: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Why?

Page 36: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

Page 37: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

Page 38: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

But researchers around the world must now consider throwing away that theory.

Page 39: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 40: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 41: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

• Weiss, A., King, J.E., Inoue-Murayam, M., Matsuzama, T. and Oswald, A.J. (2012). ‘Evidence for a midlife crisis in great apes consistent with the U-shape in human well-being’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, vol. 109, pp. 19949-19952.

Page 42: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Happiness in humans

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70

Age group

Ave

rage

life

sat

isfa

ctio

n sc

ore

Page 43: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Happiness in great apes

Page 44: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors
Page 45: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

There is also new, and truly longitudinal, cross-national evidence.

Cheng, T., Powdthavee, N., and Oswald, A.J. (2015). ‘Longitudinal evidence for a midlife low in human well-being: Results from four data sets’, Economic Journal, forthcoming.

Page 46: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

We exploit the properties of a quadratic.

Fig. 1. A Non-Technical Illustration of the Equivalence Between a U-Shape in Life Satisfaction and a Positive Gradient in a Change-in-Life-Satisfaction Function

Life

sati

sfac

tion

(a)

(b)

Age

Age A0

Chan

ge in

life

sati

sfac

tion

Page 47: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

What lesson might be drawn?

Page 48: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

What lesson might be drawn?

• A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

Page 49: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

What lesson might be drawn?

• A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

Page 50: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

However, currently, this puzzle remains to be understood:

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group

Ave

rag

e li

fe s

atis

fact

ion

sco

re

Page 51: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew Oswald (happily oldish)

Page 52: Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors

Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’

Andrew Oswald (happily oldish)

Downloadable papers: www.andrewoswald.com


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