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© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
How policies driven China NEV market?
Lancy Zhang, Powertrain and NEV
LMC Webinar
8th October, 2020
Electrification
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Outline
• NEV Definition
• Government Policy and Regulations
• NEV Market Status
• Outlook
2
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV definition
▪ Different definitions to NEV between the China government and LMC
3
Plug-in
❖ BEV: battery electric vehicle
Geely Kandi BAIC EU260 BYD Qin SAIC Roewe 550
❖ EREV: extended range electric vehicle ❖ PFCEV: fuel cell electric vehicle
Lixiang One Honda Clarity
Non-plug
❖ FHEV: full hybrid electric vehicle
Toyota CarollaBeyond China government’s definition to NEV
❖ MHEV: mild hybrid electric vehicle
Nissan Murano Lexus ES
❖ PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ Subsidy will extend to 2022, but the amount will decrease slightly
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
PHEV ≥50 100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 400 ≥ 400
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
Government Policy_Subsidy
BEV Range (Km) Energy Density (Wh/Kg)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
90 - 105 105 - 125 125 - 140 140 - 160 ≥ 160
2017 2018 2019
Note:
- 23rd Apr to 22nd Jul 2020 is the
interim period
- subsidy only available for
vehicle’s price below 300,000
RMB, except for battery-
swapped vehicles
0,000 RMB
4
Year
Decrease
2020
10%
2021
20%
2022
30%
Purchase Tax Free
300,000 RMB
Battery-Swapped Vehicles
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ Local governments offer some incentives on NEV since COVID-19 outbreak
Government Policy_Local Government
8
03.03.2020/Guangzhou:10,000RMB per vehicle
08.05.2020/Hainan:10,000RMB per vehicle
09.04.2020/Shenzhen:10,000RMB per vehicle
09.04.2020/Ningbo:10,000RMB per vehicle
23.04.2020/Shanghai:5,000RMB for charging fee
25.03.2020/Beijing:10,000RMB per vehicleAdd 20,000NEV car plates
27.05.2020/Shaanxi:6,000RMB per vehicle
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ Change of test procedure
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
10
Fuel type Ratio WLTC/NEDC*Gasoline 1.22
Diesel 1.20
LPG 1.16
Gas 1.36
HEV gasoline 1.32
HEV diesel 1.34
PHEV 1.00
Source: *Stefanos Tsiakmakis etc.. From NEDC to WLTP: effect on the type-approval CO2 emissions of light-duty vehicles
Gasoline
Diesel
Gaseous
Plug-in hybrid
Non plug-in hybrid
BEV
FCEV
WLTC
WLTC
CLTC
Fuel consumption
Fuel consumptionElectric consumptionPure electric range
Electric consumptionRange
TCAFC will adjust according to WLTC
After 2025, all vehicle types will change to CLTC
China Automotive Testing Standard Import Schedule
Type
Before 2025 After 2025
Light Vehicle(CVW≤3.5t)
All types
• Gasoline/Diesel• Hybrid Vehicles• Alternative fuel Vehicle
WLTC
CLTC
• BEV• Fuel Cell Vehicles
CLTC
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
▪ Flexible relationship between NEV credits carry-forward and ICE’s CAFC
12
𝐼𝐶𝐸𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶𝑆𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶
≤ 123%
2019 NEV positive credit
2020 NEV positive credit
2021 or afterNEV positive credit
year +1 year +2 year +3 year +4
100% 50% off 50% off
50% off 50% off 50% off
50% off 50% off 50% off
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
BEV
PHEV
FCEV
0.5 0.3 0.2Low Fuel Consumption (LFC) Vehicle -
Standard credit per vehicle
0.012*R+0.8 0.0056*R+0.4
2.0 1.6
0.16*P 0.08*P
previous new
Year
required quota
▪ a) New NEV quota is set for 2021-2023
▪ b) Standard credit per vehicle is declined
▪ c) New concept, LFC, is proposed
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
13
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
What is LFCs
14
L/100km
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Fuel Consumption Target Value 2021 LFC condition(123%)
2022 LFC condition(120%) 2023 LFC condition(115%)
1090 2510Curb Mass (kg)
T=6.57
T=4.02
LFC Assessment requirement:Comprehensive fuel consumption ≤ Vehicle target value x Annual compliance requirement
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ LFCs has coefficient bonus when calculating the output
▪ It gives OEMs more options in powertrain fitment not only focusing on pure electricity
▪ Japanese OEMs will benefit from it as their have LFCs
What is LFCs
5.175.51
5.85
6.95
7.738.08
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1090 1350 1500 2000 2350 2510
2021 2022 2023
Camry HEVAccord HEV
Odyssey HEV
15
L/100km
kg
Corolla HEV
Crider HEV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
What will be the impact by LFC?
▪ For example
16
Version 1.0 Version 2.0ICE 30,000 30,000Low fuel consumption* 20,000 20,000NEV Percentage 14% 14%NEV Standard Credit (30,000+20,000)*10%=5,000 (30,000+20,000*0.5)*10%=4000
NEV Credit
NEV Actual Credit
NEV Standard Credit
Credit per NEV Vehicle
NEV Total Volume
NEV StandardPercentage
ICE Total Volume
ICE LFC *0.5
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
CAFC performance
▪ CAFC has met the target, but there is still lots of pressure in the following years
17
6.436.05 5.8 5.56 4.60
6.88 6.78 6.62 6.48
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 Target
CAFC with NEV bonus* CAFC without NEV**L/100km
𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶 =σ𝑖=1𝑁 𝐹𝐶𝑖 × 𝑉𝑖σ𝑖=1𝑁 𝑉𝑖 ×𝑾𝒊
bonus coefficient
➢ TCAFC target is becoming smaller
➢ CAFC is becoming bigger due to Wi
smaller
2019 5.5 3.0
2020 5.0 2.0
2021 4.9 2.0
2022 4.8 1.8
2023 4.6 1.6
YearTCAFC
L/100kmMultiple of vehicle/WiCAFC credit = (TCAFC – CAFC) * output
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ The more NEV share, the better CAFC performance
Some major OEMs CAFC performance
18Data source: MIIT LMC Automotive
Geely
SAIC
FAW-VW
Brilliance BWM
SGM
FAW-Toyota
SVW
GAC-Toyota
Beijing-Benz
DF-Honda
GAC-Honda
GAC
Great Wall
2017
SAIC
Geely
Brilliance BWM
GAC-Toyota
FAW-VW
FAW-Toyota
SVW
Great Wall
Beijing-Benz
DF-Honda
GAC
GAC-Honda
SGM
2018
SAIC
GAC
Brilliance BWM
GAC-Toyota
Great Wall
FAW-Toyota
Geely
GAC-Honda
DF-Honda
SVW
Beijing-Benz
FAW-VW
SGM
2019
Positive credit: Actual value < standard value
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV credit performance
19
4.1%6.8%
16.5%
22.8%20.2%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug)
Actual NEV quota
3.00 2.90
3.60
4.20 4.10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug)
NEV credit per vehicle
▪ NEV credit is surplus, but will decrease sharply under new regulation
0
2
4
6
8
Tesla Model3 standardrange
BYD Han Luxury NIO ES8 2020 415KM NIO ES6 2020 430KMperformance
Trumpchi Aion S Buick Velite6
under previous policy under new policy
2020 target 12%
units
units
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-47.0%
-71.9%
-45.7%
-30.8%-24.0%
-32.4%
28.7%
23%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Ja
n-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Tho
usa
nd
s
EREV
PHEV
BEV
YoY
NEV market saw 29% decline in Q2
21Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tho
usa
nd
s
2017
2018
2019
2020
▪ Q2 market improved greatly from Q1, but demand was still at a low level
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV sales decline by major segment and OEMs
22
-49%
-64%
-55% 118%
-39%
BEV sales (Thousand) PHEV sales (Thousand)
NEV sales (Thousand)
-42%
-54%
-70%-85%
-13%-93%
-37%
-55%-71%
-23%-8%-39%
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ Global brands starting to taking more and more share in NEV market
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
20
18
01
20
18
02
20
18
03
20
18
04
20
18
05
20
18
06
20
18
07
20
18
08
20
18
09
20
18
10
20
18
11
20
18
12
20
19
01
20
19
02
20
19
03
20
19
04
20
19
05
20
19
06
20
19
07
20
19
08
20
19
09
20
19
10
20
19
11
20
19
12
20
20
01
20
20
02
20
20
03
20
20
04
20
20
05
20
20
06
20
20
07
20
20
08
BEV
US
KR
JP
EU
CN
Global brands sales keep rising in NEV sector
23
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
PHEV
Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-3.0%
1.0%
5.0%
9.0%
13.0%
17.0%
21.0%
25.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Tho
usa
nd
s
NIO Xpeng Weltmeister Model 3 (domestic)
NIO share Xpeng share Weltmeister share Model 3 (domestic) share
NEV market: a volatile environment continues… ▪ New start-up companies facing more direct competition from Tesla
▪ Meanwhile Tesla is struggling with disruption of supply chain due to low local content rate.
24Data source: insurance data, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Outlook
29
▪ NEV market is disturbed by COVID-19 in 2020, but will grow in the long-term
124 227 466
792 882 795
3,025
61 94
114
296 230 212
909
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2025F
Tho
usa
nd
s
BEV PHEV EREV
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Change
Kevin Riddell, Senior Manager
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8 October 2020
US LV Electrification In Turbulent Times
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Contents
2
▪ US Electrification Environment
▪ US EV Sales Outlook
▪ North American EV Production Outlook
▪ Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
The Last 4 Months Have Been Busy!
3
▪ June: Washington state adopted California ZEV regulations.
▪ June: The new SAFE regulations take effect.
▪ California restricted from instituting more stringent CO2 standards.
▪ August: California finalizes voluntary agreements with BMW, Ford,
Honda, VW, Volvo to meet stricter fuel economy standards.
▪ August: A reduction in fines imposed by NHTSA for missing fuel
economy targets reversed in U.S. Court of Appeals.
▪ September: Governor of California files and Executive Order that by
2035 new LV sales are to be Zero Emission.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Presidential Elections in November
4
VS.
Track record of reducing/removing environmental regulations to boost the economy.
Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emission no later than 2050.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Contents
5
▪ US Electrification Environment
▪ US EV Sales Outlook
▪ North American EV Production Outlook
▪ Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Source: JATO Dynamics, OEMs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70T
housands
BEV FCEV PHEV HEV
A Rough First Half of the Year for EVs
▪ Despite steady supply of new products, increased sales has been slow.
▪ In first half of the year BEV sales down.
6
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
A Closer Look at BEV Sales
7
• Coronavirus significantly
lowered near-term BEV sales.
• BEVs stated as top priority.
• Stable incentives.
• Many new entries coming.0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
Thousan
ds
US LV BEV Sales
2020 Outlook from 2019 Q4: 288,000
2020 Outlook from 2020 Q3: 215,000
BEV Topline Change: 25%
BEV Market Share: 1.5%
Source: JATO Dynamics, OEMs, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
EV segment trends – CAGR 2019-2030
9
Non-premium Segments
Premium Segments 15%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
17%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
100%
40%3%27%23%
7%8%23%
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV segment trends – CAGR 2019-2030
10
Non-premium Segments
Premium Segments 10%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
30%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
100%
139%2%36%51%
2%8%27%
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Content
11
▪ US Electrification Environment
▪ US EV Sales Outlook
▪ North American EV Production Outlook
▪ Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NA Electrified Light Vehicle Production
12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Millio
ns
BEV PHEV HEV
▪ BEV growth from
established OEMs
and startups.
▪ BEV, FHEV, MHEV
production shares
trending at similar
rates.
▪ Electrification
strategy varies
significantly
between OEMs.
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NA EV Light Vehicle Battery Requirement
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
1202
01
5
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Battery Requirements (GWh) for NA Light Vehicle Production
▪ Estimated 106 GWh
of storage capacity
required for 2025.
▪ Larger battery packs
accelerating the
curve.
Avg BEV pack capacity (kWh)
2015: 572020: 722025: 86
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Content
14
▪ US Electrification Environment
▪ US EV Sales Outlook
▪ North American EV Production Outlook
▪ Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Millio
ns
US Light EV Sales
HEV PHEV BEV
▪ SAFE entrenched. No ZEV regulations.
▪ Higher percentage of HEV are 48-volt.
▪ BEVs still see significant growth, but slower.
▪ California/OEM agreement supporting EV
sales.
2030 Change over
Baseline
XEV: -14%
BEV: -24%
Republicans Win in November, California Lawsuit Fails
Source: LMC Automotive15
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
▪ State ZEV membership growing.
▪ Larger infrastructure ease plug-in anxiety.
▪ Tougher future CO2 targets?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Millio
ns
US Light EV Sales
HEV PHEV BEV
2030 Change over
Baseline
XEV: +67%
BEV: +60%
Source: LMC Automotive
Democrats Win in November, California Lawsuit Win
16
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
In Conclusion
17
▪ Highly fluid US market providing plenty of uncertainty for electrification
rollout.
▪ COVID-19, SAFE regulations, SAFE litigation, presidential elections
▪ Many factors continue helping BEV sales increase.
▪ Consumer costs continue falling, more diverse products, sustained
incentives, continued infrastructure investments
▪ NA EV production base remains important despite the US losing its global
sales lead.
▪ Strong investments, high quantity of local talent
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Electrification
Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October, 2020
Can Europe Sustain Momentum Amid the Turmoil?
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: Is the xEV Industry Knocked off Course?
On the whole, OEMs are striving to protect their xEV programs during the pandemic
• ID.3 build restarted in April with same 2020
target – Norway’s top-seller in September
• Mercedes-Benz back on track to produce
50k EQC this year – the original target
• Hyundai expands Kona Electric production
in Europe to 30k to ease supply constraint
• Tesla is forging ahead with the European
Gigafactory – wants to achieve what it did
in Shanghai – a 10 month build
• Porsche won’t cancel any projects. Taycan
Cross Turismo has a minor delay (but
that’s due to strong demand for Taycan)
2
0
30
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
New BEV model launches
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
20
40
60
Europe vol ('000s) Europe %
Europe: Regulatory Impact on the BEV Market is Clear
Monthly PV BEV sales
• …
3
Sa
les (
‘00
0s)
Sh
are
(%
)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
BEV share 2019
BEV share 2020
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: Incentives+OEM Action Create Record BEV Sales
• Many markets set BEV sales records, despite the patchy recovery in car demand
• But will we see a cliff-edge decline when the boosted incentives expire?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16France
0
5
10
15
20
25Germany
0
1
2
3
4
5Italy
0
1
2
3Spain
0
5
10
15
20
25 UK
Monthly BEV sales, ‘000s
4
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS= Record BEV sales
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: PEV* Market Moves into a Global Lead
• For first time since the start of China’s NEV boom, Europe’s plug-in sales lead
• Will China move ahead once more, or will Europe retain its position?
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*PEV: Plug-in Electric Vehicle comprising BEV, EREV and PHEV
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
0
200
400
600
800
USA Europe China
PEV sales
Jan-Jul: 2019‘0
00s
0
200
400
600
800
USA Europe China
PEV sales
Jan-Jul: 2020
‘00
0s
128
486501
5
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0.0
0.9
1.8
2020 2021 2022
Q4 2019 Forecast Q3 2020 Forecast
0
0.9
1.8
2020 2021 2022
Q4 2019 Forecast Q3 2020 Forecast
Europe passenger car PEV marketS
ale
s (
mn
un
its)
• For BEV in 2020, incentives, OEM push & buyer awareness balance COVID-19
Europe: How is the near-term Forecast Looking?
BEV PHEV
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
6
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: Should Tesla-lovers Worry about Sales Figures?
• Is the competitor OEM BEV onslaught impacting Tesla, or is it a capacity issue?
• July, August look poor, but Tesla’s sales are often loaded to quarter-end
0
400
2019 2020
BEV sales
Aug YTD 19 v. 20
‘00
0s
0
60
2019 2020
Tesla sales
Aug YTD 19 v. 20
0
20
Ja
n-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Ju
n-1
9
Ju
l-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct-
19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Ja
n-2
0
Feb
-20
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Ju
n-2
0
Ju
l-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Tesla sales
Monthly
Q1 Q2 Q1Q3 Q2Q4
7
Q3
‘00
0s
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: New Plug-in Model Deluge
• Available PEV models jump from 77 last year to almost 300 by 2022
• PHEV is vital for meeting the next CO2 target, but then we think growth slows
0
100
200
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
BEVMainstream models on sale
22 3071
170222
0
100
200
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
PHEVMainstream models on sale
24 3182
122 137
8
255
144
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032
% o
f S
ale
s
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
BEV PHEV HEV PEV % ICE %
Europe passenger car xEV Market
• More than 90% of passenger car sales will be electrified by early next decade
• Plug-ins will account for 50%+ of the market, dominated by BEV
Europe: Longer Term xEV Outlook
BEV= 3.8mn
BEV= 8.8mn
9
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
26
36
46
56D
ec
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ap
r-1
5
Au
g-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ap
r-16
Au
g-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ap
r-1
8
Au
g-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ap
r-1
9
Au
g-1
9
De
c-1
9
Ap
r-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Share YoY
W. Europe Car Market
▪ Decline has slowed with YoY share falling at between 2 and 4 percentage points
▪ 2020 forecast: 28.7% (-3.3pp), with diesel still needed for CO2 compliance
Europe: A Word on Diesel
Source: National Sources
Figures include diesel hybrid
Dieselgate
Die
se
l %
of N
ew
Ca
r S
ale
s
Yo
Y M
on
thly
Va
ria
nce
(P
P)
10
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
25
50
0
4
8
Diesel volume (left axis) Diesel share (right axis)
Ne
w D
iese
l P
V S
ale
s (
mn
)
▪ Diesel PV sales lose 2mn by 2032, becoming confined to the largest vehicles
Europe: Diesel Outlook
Die
se
l %
of S
ale
s
Source: National Sources, LMCA European Diesel Forecast; Includes diesel hybrid
1.1mn
7%
29%
4.6mn
11
3.2mn
32%
W. Europe Car Market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Electrification
Sam Adham, Senior Powertrain Analyst
Global Powertrain Webinar
8th October, 2020
A selection of various battery trends
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
GW
h c
um
ula
tive
GW
h a
nn
ua
l
EMEA cumulative ROW cumulative EMEA annual ROW annual
• If 24 GWh each, implies a need for at least 25 European ‘Gigafactories’ by 2032
• Compare with ICE production: Currently 60 active engine plants in Europe
• BEVs account for 70% of total GWh demand now, rising to 90% in the future
Source: LMC Automotive Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
EMEA & Global LV xEV battery requirement
World: Battery Demand Outlook
2
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Operator Location Capacity Comment
Northvolt Sweden 16 GWh initial, rising to 32 GWh Expected 2021. Supplying VW, BMW
Northvolt Germany 16 GWh initial, rising to 32 GWh Expected Q1 2024. Supplying VW, BMW
CATL Germany 14 GWh initial, rising to 24 GWh Expected 2022
LG Chem Poland 10 GWh initial, rising to 65 GWh In operation
SK Innovation Hungary 7.5 GWh initial, 17.3 GWh by 2022 In operation
Samsung SDI Hungary 3 GWh current In operation
BYD UK ? Prospective. Potential JLR partner
Britishvolt UK 10 GWh initial, rising to 30 GWh 2023. Prospective. Potential JLR partner
Tesla Germany Would need to be ~8 GWh initially Planning
Saft/PSA France 8 GWh initial, rising to 24 GWh Expected 2023
Saft/PSA Germany 24 GWh Expected 2023. Plant conversion
Daimler Germany ? In operation; 2 plants; pack assembly
Daimler Poland ? In operation; pack assembly
VW Czech Rep. ? In operation; PHEV pack assembly
FCA Italy ? In operation. Final assembly
PSA Slovakia ? Final assembly
Volvo Belgium ? In operation. Final assembly
Europe: Importing Battery Cells & Packs isn’t Sustainable
Known and assumed major PEV battery production operations in Europe
3
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2015 2020 2025 2030
We
igh
ted
Ave
rag
e
Ba
tte
ry C
ap
acity (
kW
h)
NEAR TERM: IMPROVING LITHIUM-ION• New anode and cathode materials• Stable and higher quality electrolytes
and additives• Better pack design and materials• Advanced control• Better manufacturing processes
MID-TERM: ERA OF DIMINISHING GAINS• Low-hanging fruit is harvested by
this time, and any advance is minimal, before switch-over to next-gen batteries
LONG TERM: BEYOND LITHIUM-ION• Battery cost and performance breakthrough• Solid state as an alternative to liquid electrolyte• Li-Air, Li-S, as an alternative to li-ion• Next gen liquid, gel, polymer electrolytes to
enhance performance of new anode and cathode materials
optimised lithium
diminishing gains
advanced lithium
Global BEV battery capacity trend – weighted average by volume
BEV Battery Technology Development
4
Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain
Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
40
80
120
160
Next 10 years: -$8/yr
5
0
500
1,000
Pack W
ho
lesale
Co
st
($/k
Wh
**)
$156 (BNEF), $150 (McKinsey)
BEV-ICE cost parity* BEV-ICE profit parity*
• *Price representaive of mass market BEV model with NMC battery pack
BEV Battery Pack Price Outlook
Past 10 years: -$85/yr
$62 (BNEF)
$100 (BNEF)
$~150
Incentives needed
▪ This curve represents market
average – in reality the cost
depends on the segment, vehicle,
OEM, and cathode chemistry!
▪ Current view is that Li, Mn, Co &
Ni supplies will be sufficient to
keep up with demand, but prices
will be spiky
▪ We aren’t assuming a
commercial-level battery
breakthrough such as solid state
before 2030
▪ The outlook from here is Li-ion
with scale, optimisation and
incremental gains
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV Battery Cathode Chemistry Outlook
Source: LMC Automotive G LVPTF Battery & eMotor Module
6
LFPNCA
NMC
2019
LFP LNMO (?)
NCA
NMC
NMCA
2025
Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
▪ LFP share suffered a
collapse towards 2019, but
is bouncing back in China
▪ NMC is dominant, but
cobalt-free imperative is
driving development of
alternatives
▪ LNMO is what we’re
assuming to be future
chemistry for Tesla and
SVolt
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
PHEV battery capacities are getting larger
Typical battery sizes by segment
7
5
10
15
20
25
Typ
ica
l B
att
ery
ca
pa
cit
y [
kW
h]
2015
2020
2025
Source: LMCA Global Light
Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with
Battery & eMotor Module
▪ In Europe, WLTP forced larger packs
▪ Will keep increasing with incremental
improvements in volumetric energy density
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
LCVs
David Leah, Senior Analyst
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October 2020
The European LCV xEV Market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Current SituationTopline
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
Mill
ions
COVID-19
impactEurozone crisis
Recovery
Long term looks positive. Demand to
be driven by various factors, such as:
▪ Shift in consumer behavior to
online shopping/e-commerce
▪ Downsizing trends from HGVs to
LCVs (agile supply chains)
▪ Rise of last-mile delivery
▪ Environmental Factors: rise in
xEVs/CO2targets/Incentives/ZEZs
/ICE bans/Social reasonability
etc.…
= boost renewals
-16% YoY
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Current SituationFuel Type
3
~10K ~ 50K
0.5%
4.9%
2016
93.6%
xEV
Petrol
Diesel
Other* CNG, LPG
1.0%
1.1%
6.7%
2018
91.2%
1.0%
2.4%
5.7%
2020
90.9%
1.0%
CAGR = 48.6%
▪ xEV set to account for ~2.4% of sales in 2020 (2% YTD)
▪ xEV demand has increased at a CAGR of 48.6%, albeit low base
▪ Diesel has remained the dominant fuel type (TCO & >torque benefits versus petrol)
Key
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
40%
36%
24%Small vans
Medium vans
Large vans
Current SituationSnapshot
4
Total xEV sales
+15% YTD
23kunits YTD
21
3
Renault Kangoo
best selling
model
France market
leaders in volume
terms ~6k
units YTD
Norway highest
xEV market
share~7%
YTD
~75% of xEV
sales = BEVs
40% of xEV sales small
or car-derived sized vans
YTD
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
260
190 180
12080
170
90 110
500
300400
100 100
400 400
200
800900
700
500
300
600
800 800
5
Current SituationYTD Analysis
900800
500
100
400
1,800
700500
J F M A M J J A YTD (Jan – Aug)
+0.1%
+8%
+210%
-35%
YTD Sales
6,000
5,500
2,500
1,200
Market share*%
~2.5%
~3.5%
~2.5%
~6.5%
*Of respective market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 6
Current SituationOEM Analysis
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Mil
lio
ns
BEV PHEV HEV FCEV ICE %
ForecastxEV Outlook
7
▪ BEVs to account for around a
third of sales by 2032.
▪ ICE vehicles set to account for
around 50% of total sales by
2032.
▪ Tipping point for LCVs to be
around mid-2020
Note: PHEV includes EREV.HEV includes MHEV (48V), MHEV & FHEV.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
ForecastxEV Model Launches
8
Note: Includes Vans & Pick-ups only. PHEV includes EREV. HEV includes MHEV (48V), MHEV & FHEV
610
23
4348
2
5
7
4
6
12
1
2
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2018 2020 2022 2025
BEV PHEV HEV FCEV
▪ Average CO2 A seven fold
increase in model launches
between 2018 and 2025.
▪ Competition set to intensify
putting pressure on OEMs.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Industry FactorsCO2 emission targets
9
2017: 175 g/km
2020: 147 g/km
2025: 125 g/km
2030: 101 g/km
Historical emissions
▪ Average CO2 emissions of new
vans in the EU will have to be
15% lower in 2025 and 31% in
2030 compared to the 2021
target.
▪ The ZLEV credit system
enables OEMs with an xEV (0
to 50g/km) share >15% in 2025
and >30% in 2030 to benefit
from less stringent CO2
requirements (capped at 5%).
Note: Figures are expressed in NEDC terms.*The binding emission targets for OEMs are set according to the average mass of their vehicles
Source: European Commission; ICCT
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Industry FactorsIncentives
10
Tax Benefits Purchase Incentives Max (€) Subsidy
Acquisition Ownership Company Car Incentives
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
Source: ACEA
≤20g CO2/km up to €7k subsidy
(6k from 2021)
≤50g CO2/km up to €6k govt + €3k
OEM subsidy (until 2022)
≤75g CO2/km & ≥16 km battery
range = up to €8k subsidy
Tax based on Weight, CO2 & Nox
levels: ~20 to 30% of passenger
car rates
≥30 km battery range = €4.4k
subsidy, rising to €6k if vehicle
scrapped
≤60g CO2/km up to ~€6k subsidy
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
ICE phase-out targets
Industry FactorsICE Bans / ZEZs
11
2025 2030 2035 2040
Norway Denmark
Netherlands
UK
Spain Sweden
Iceland
Scotland (2032)
London
2025
Proposed city-wide Zero
Emission Zones (ZEZ)/ICE
bans
Note: Phase out targets may exempt vans in some countries.
Source: ICCT
Note: On the whole, targets are progressive, starting in
specific urban areas before expanding to entire city
bans. In addition, some bans target diesel vehicles,
others all ICE.
*This slide does not include every country/city which
has announced ICE bans.
France Paris
2024
Oslo
2024
Amsterdam
2030
Rome
2030
Govt. national phase-out targets
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Electrification
Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October, 2020
Global Summary
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
0
50
100
150
200
World vol ('000s) World % Linear (World vol ('000s)) Linear (World %)
World: BEV Volumes are Starting to Recover
Monthly PV* BEV sales
• Although volumes have suffered as a result of the pandemic, share is growing
14
Sa
les (
‘00
0s)
Sh
are
(%
)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-30
-20
-10
0Market BEV
World PV* sales Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
World: BEV Sales have Outperformed the Market in 2020
• World BEV PV sales from January to
August 2020 were 955k compared with
1,035k in the same period in 2019.
• The out-performance of BEV comes
despite China NEV sales being
hampered by reduced subsidies, some
USA OEMs losing tax credit & cheap
gasoline almost everywhere.
• It’s Europe that has driven the strong
performance. Tesla started the year
well and there are more new models.
But even ageing BEV models are in
demand, bucking the market.
%
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
-23%-8%
15
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
…but the Regional Picture is very Mixed
• Europe’s BEV sales have greatly outperformed the market while China’s have
been curtailed by policy changes, and the USA’s have tracked LV sales closely
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
Europe PV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
%
+54%
-34% -40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
China PV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
NAM LV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
% %
-16%-26% -23% -20%
16
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2019 2020
+11%
World: Despite USA/China/COVID-19, BEV Grows in 2020
40
60
80
2019 2020
World PV market (inc. NA LV)
Sa
les
(m
n)
-17%
▪ The positive result for BEV demand this year is entirely due to Europe
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
67mn 1.7mn
1.8mn
World PV BEV market (inc. NA LV)
80mn
17
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
World: Regional Long-Term Outlook
18
Global PEV Outlook by Major Market (mn units)
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2015
China
Europe
NAM
World
0
1
2
3
2020
0
4
8
12
20250
10
20
2030
• Our analysis suggests that Europe retains the lead in plug-in sales this decade
16mn BEV
4mn PHEV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
30
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032
BEV PHEV HEV** FCEV
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
World: Outlook by xEV Technology Type
19
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*Including n. America light truck
** Full hybrid + mild hybrid + mild hybrid (48V)
World PV market*
BEV
21%
HEV
25%
PHEV
5%
All xEV
53%
• Global PV electrification achieves more than 50% within 12 years
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
Q3 2020
Q4 2019
World: COVID-19 doesn’t Impact the Long-Term Forecast
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*Includes N. America light truck
Q4 19: 2020-31 - 111 mn
Q3 20: 2020-31 - 115 mn
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
• There may be a net positive influence in BEV demand resulting from a
reluctance to revert to the use of public transport (especially in China).
• COVID-19 and the resulting improvement in air quality may act as a focal point
for public opinion to shift in favour of faster elimination of fossil fuel emissions.
World BEV PV market*
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3 2020
Q4 2019
World xEV PV market*
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
Q4 19: 2020-31 - 356 mn
Q3 20: 2020-31 - 350 mn
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