View
231
Download
2
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Hanoi City
ECONOMY
2
E C O N O M Y
Q3 GDP Growth Accelerates
Q1 2017: 5.15%
Q2 2017: 6.28%
Q3 2017: 7.46%
9M 2017: 6.41%
2017 Goal: 6.7%
Manufacturing (9M) ▲ 6% y-o-y
Exports (9M) ▲ 19.8% y-o-y
Target credit growth for 2017 ▲ 21% y-o-y
“While the short-term outlook is pretty decent, risks
are building. In particular, we are increasingly
concerned by the rapid increase in debt.”
Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital
Economics Ltd.
Source: Bloomberg, General Statistics Office Of Vietnam.
3
E C O N O M Y
Economic Highlights
FDI: $25.5 billion
▲ 34% y-o-y
into Real Estate:
4.5% of total FDI
New Real Estate
Business Licence:
3,500
▲ 62% y-o-y
Retail Turnover:
VND2,917 trillion
(~US$128 billion)
▲ 9% y-o-y real growth
Note: Data recorded for 9M 2017
4
E C O N O M Y
First-timers in Vietnam
5
E C O N O M Y
Bright Outlook for Vietnam’s Tourism
6
Ho Chi Minh City to auction
investment packages in
Vietnam’s largest stadium
CAPITAL MARKET
7
I N V E S T M E N T
8
Source: Newspaper articles retrieved on 25 September 2017.
I N V E S T M E N T
Private Equity Investment in Q3 2017
Source: Newspaper articles retrieved on 25 September 2017.
9
I N V E S T M E N T
Private Equity Investment in Vietnam
Top PE investment by sector
in 2016 and 2017Investment
Real estate US$613.5 million
Retail US$328.8 million
Education US$211 million
Finance US$85.4 million
Technology US$66 million
Infrastructure US$60.2 million
Entertainment US$42.5 million
Source: Deal Street Asia, retrieved on 25 September 2017.
FundProject/
CompanyValue Year
EXS Capital Son Kim LandUS$46
million2017
China Fortune
Land
Development
Dai Phuoc
Lotus
US$64
million2017
Warburg Pincus,
Vinacapital
Sofitel Legend
Metropole
Hanoi
US$100
million2016
AON, Mirae
AssetLandmark 72
US$382.5
million2016
10
Major Real Estate PE Investment
Vina Square My Gia Township Otis Hotel
City HCMC Nha Trang Nha Trang
Land use Mixed-use Residential Hotel
Land area 30,000 sm 60,000 sm 4,000 sm
Seller/ Developer VinaLandVinaLand
(50% interest)Confidential
►►Buyer Tri Duc Real Estate Confidential P.H Group
I N V E S T M E N T
Notable Transactions in Q3 2017: Development Sites
11
Source: Real Capital Analytics.
I N V E S T M E N T
Income Producing Assets and Development Sites Transactions
Disclaimer: Transactions include deals above US$10 million. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to
confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the
material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, RCA.
Vietnam Investment Volume
0
10
20
30
40
50
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M 2017
No. of transactions
Transaction value (U
S$
m
illion)
Commercial Mixed use Residential No. of transaction
12
9M 2017:
foreign
buyers
made up
68%
transaction
value
I N V E S T M E N T
Vietnam Asset Management Company
VAMC seizes collateral of Saigon One Tower
VAMC, Sacombank sign
contract to settle bad debt
VAMC calls for debt
settlements of 8 plots of
Hoan Cau Group
Source: VAMC, retrieved from newspaper on 1 Oct 2017.
13
Audit pending projects
The Ministry of Finance proposed a list of 60 projects to be audited
INFRASTRUCTURE
14
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Hanoi: Metro Line No.2A - Delayed trial operation as scheduled in Oct 2017
Cat Linh
Station
Metro Line No. 2A
Cat Linh – Ha Dong
95% completed
Depot
Station
Yen Nghia Depot
Source: Images from Internet
Van Khe
Ring Road No.3
Royal City
Hoang Cau
15
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Hanoi: Can New Bridges Unleash the Potential of Its Eastern Districts?
Current bridge
Future bridge
Residential supply by Q3
2017 – East of Hanoi
15,300 units
4,800 units
Residential supply by Q3
2017 – West of Hanoi
135,500 units
41,000 units
16
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Hanoi: Upgrading Ring Roads to Create Greater Connection among Districts
Completed
Under-construction
Planned for new construction
1
1
5
5
3
3
4
4
2
Trung Kinh – Tran Duy Hung “The costliest road in the world” 0.5km – US$50 million
Planned for expansion
2
Source: Images from Internet
17
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
HCMC: More Bridges and New Roads to Push the East Further
HCMC authorities approved inter-ward
roads projects in District 9
The People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City has approved the
construction of a road linking the inter-ward road (Huy Can
Street) to Do Xuan Hop Street, District 9 from the capital of residential project investors in the area.
From July 15, traffic will not be available on this route on Saturday and Sunday from 19:00 until 2:00 the next morning.
HCMC announce 1/500
master plan for Da Phuoc
depot of Metro line no.5
18
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
HCMC: Upgrading Ring Roads
19
Cat Lai Port
Current Container Truck Route
Future Container Truck Route
Under Planning
Completed
Road widening approved
OFFICE
20
O F F I C E
Q3 2017 Market snapshot
New Supply
Asking rents(*)
Vacancy
rate
Grade A Grade B
HANOI
No new supply No new supply
11.1% 16.0%
▼ -5.9% y-o-y
▼ -0.1% q-o-q
US$24.1psm pm US$13.7psm pm
▲ 8.6% y-o-y
▼ -0.1% q-o-q
▲ 1.4% y-o-y
▼ -0.2% q-o-q
▲ 1.2% y-o-y
▼ -1.4% q-o-q
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
(*) Asking rents: US$ psm pm (exclusive of VAT, service charge)
HCMC
32,000 sm NLA No new supply
US$36.7psm pm US$20.7psm pm
6.6% 2.8%
▼ -5.5% y-o-y
▲ 1.1% q-o-q
▲ 3.9% y-o-y
▼ -1.4% q-o-q
▲ 2.3 ppts y-o-y
▲ 1.4 ppts q-o-q
0.0 ppts y-o-y
▼ -1.2 ppts q-o-q
21
Grade A Grade B
O F F I C E
Total Supply in Major Cities
Hanoi
1,233,462 sm
HCMC
1,144,267 sm
Da Nang
79,987 sm
Hai Phong
52,234 sm
(*) Total supply in NLA
Grade A and B Total Supply by City, Vietnam (NLA, sm)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, CBRE APAC, GSO.
Grade A Total Supply, Regional Cities (NLA, sm)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Hai Phong
Grade A Grade B
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
HCMC Hanoi Singapore Bangkok Tokyo Hong
Kong
22
O F F I C E
Hanoi: New Supply in 2017
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
Sun Square9,880 sm, NLA
Q1 2017
Horison Tower8,015 sm, NLA
Q1 2017
HUD Tower24,051 sm, NLA
Q2 2017
DSD Building14,000 sm, NLA
Q4 2017
Richy Tower
7,832 sm, NLA
Q4 2017
Eurowindows
13,274 sm, NLA
Q4 2017
Grade A
Grade B
O F F I C E
HCMC: New Supply in 2017
Saigon Centre P2
32,000 sm NLA
Q3 2017
Viettel
Complex
23,620 sm NLA
Q2 2017
Sai Gon Giai
Phong
8,800 sm NLA
Q1 2017
Etown Central
35,000 sm NLA
Q4 2017
24
Grade A
Grade B
O F F I C E
Outlook is Stabilizing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015 2016 2017
Vacancy rates(%
)
Asking rents (U
S$
psm
pm
)
HCMCHANOI
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
Asking rents: US$ psm pm (exclusive of VAT, service charge) 25
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2015 2016 2017
Vacancy rate (%
)
Asking rents (U
S$
psm
pm
)
O F F I C E
Hanoi: Stable Absorption in Grade B
HCMC: Strong Net Absorption Because of New Supply
HCMC
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
NLA
(sm
)
Grade A Grade B
HANOI
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
NLA
(sm
)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
Asking rents: US$ psm pm 26
O F F I C E
Regional Demand Comparison: Where is Vietnam?
Multinationals’ expected change in real estate portfolios over the next three years
Expansion by
Multinationals
Consolidation
Source: CBRE 2017 APAC Occupier Survey
Respondents’ Profiles: The CBRE 2017 Asia Pacific Occupier Survey incorporates the findings of a regional survey of multinational occupiers along
with four separate national surveys of domestic occupiers in China, India, Japan and Australia. A total of 450 responses were received. The analysis
in this report largely focuses on the responses received from the 50 multinational respondents. Respondents were senior executives responsible for
overseeing their organisation’s regional and / or global real estate portfolio.
27
O F F I C E
Sentiment Remains Positive among Decision Makers
EuroCham Business Climate Index for Vietnam, Q2 2017
Source: Eurocham, Q2 2017 28
O F F I C E
Demand: Relocation to Dominate the Market
79%
10%
12%
HA
NO
IH
CM
C
61%
7%
32%HANOI
HCMC
Finance/ Banking
21%
Manufacturing
18% - 24%
Real Estate
9%
Service
14%
Media
10%
29Source: CBRE Vietnam, based on CBRE’s enquiries, only
O F F I C E
Demand: Higher Demand for Large Floor Plate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
< 100 sm 100 - 299 sm 300 - 699 sm 700 - 1000 sm > 1000 sm
HCMC
HANOI
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
30Source: CBRE Vietnam, based on CBRE’s enquiries, only
O F F I C E
Market Trend: Large Areas Attract Tenants
Professional Services
1,749 sm
IT
5,000 sm
IT
1,342 sm
Manufacturing
1,500 sm
E-commerce
4,000 sm
Manufacturing
1,274 sm
Viettel
Complex
Saigon Centre
P2Mapletree BC
Deutsches
Haus
HCMC
TNR TowerHorison
Tower
IT/Technology
2,300 sm
IT/Technology
1,600 sm
Banking
1,823 sm
HANOI
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
Grade A
Grade B
O F F I C E
Co-Working Space: Becoming the Big Boy’s game within APAC and Global
Share of Co-Working Space who
Anticipates a strong increase in …
0% 20% 40% 60%
Members
Income
Sense of
Community
Events
CWS 18 months & older
CWS Up to 17 months older
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017 32
O F F I C E
Co-Working Space in Vietnam: On the way to catch up
Estimated number of co-working centres and the percentage run by local operators
0
50
100
150
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Beijing India (Tier 1
cities)
Shanghai Singapore Hong Kong Sydney
% local operators Estimated total number of co-working centres
Source: 2017 The Evolution of Co-Working in
Asia Pacific; CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
0%
100%
200%
300%
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3
2017
Grow
th rate (%
)
No. of venues
HCMC Hanoi Growth Rates
No. of co-working venues by year in Vietnam
33
O F F I C E
Market Outlook - Supply
HCMC
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
New
Supply
(N
LA
sm
)
HANOI
FORECAST
34
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
New
Supply
(N
LA
sm
)
No new
Supply
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
O F F I C E
Market Outlook – Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate
HCMC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
HANOI
35
FORECAST
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Vacancy Rate (%
)
Net A
bsorption
(N
LA
, sm
)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
INDUSTRIAL AND
LOGISTICS
36
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Quality Supply Increases - Especially Foreign Invested Industrial Parks
Thang Long III Industrial park
Vinh Phuc
By Sumitomo Corporation
VSIP III Industrial park
By Sembcorp
Binh Duong
1,000 ha
213 ha
By Hemaraj
Hemaraj Industrial City
3,200 ha
37
Nghe An
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Foreign Direct Investment
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
HC
MC
Thanh H
oa
Bac N
inh
Nam
D
inh
Binh D
uong
Ha N
oi
Kien G
iang
Dong N
ai
Tay N
inh
Hai Phong
Bac G
iang
Binh Phuoc
Quang N
gai
Ba Ria
- V
ung Tau
Long A
n
Registered FD
I (m
illion U
S$
)
Top 15 provinces by total registered FDI (8M 2017)
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.
38
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
DEMAND - Automotive, Electronics and Textile
HCMC
Quang
Ngai
Hai Phong
VINFAST – 335ha
Area Industrial
park
Site area
(ha)
Company Industry
North 335 Vinfast Automotive
Trang Due 1.5 KR EMS Electronics
Dinh Vu 2.7 Top Solvent Oil & Gas
Central VSIP Quang
Ngai
14 Hebei
Xindadong
Textiles
Textile
VSIP Quang
Ngai
8 Wanex Furniture Furniture
South VSIP II 8 Tata Coffee F&B
Hiep Phuoc 7 CJ Cau Tre F&B
Major transactions
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Rents
Land rental by province and compared to regional (USS/sm/term)
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
*Term: 40-50 years 40
Region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HC
MC
Binh D
uong
Dong N
ai
Long A
n
Quang Tri
Thua Thie
n H
ue
Da N
ang
Quang N
am
Quang N
gai
Bac N
inh
Hanoi
Bac G
iang
Hai D
uong
Hai Phong
Hung Yen
Philippines
Cam
bodia
Indonesia
East Bangkok
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Rents
Ready-built-factory by Province and compared to regional (US$/sm/month)
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
41
Region
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
HC
MC
Binh D
uong
Dong N
ai
Long A
n
Da N
ang
Quang N
am
Quang N
gai
Bac N
inh
Hanoi
Bac G
iang
Hai D
uong
Hai Phong
Hung Yen
Philippines
Cam
bodia
Indonesia
East Bangkok
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Northern Areas – Road and Rail Links to Seaports
Upgrade Hanoi - Hai Phong – Ha Long
Quang Ninh IPs
Under Planning Ninh Binh – Hai Phong – Quang Ninh, Noi Bai – Ha Long
Quang Ninh port
Provide more options in transporting goods
2018
2020 - 2030
42
Hai Phong PortNoi Bai
International Airport
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
Southern Areas – Road and Rail Links to Seaports
43
OPTIONS AGAINS
SEARCH RADIUS &
MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE
Cai Mep PortHiep Phuoc Port
Ben Luc - Long Thanh Highway
(58 km, 8 lanes, 2019)
Cat Lai Port
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
% G
row
th
Y-o
-Y
Ren
ta
l ra
te (U
S$
/sm
/m
on
th
)
Rents -South Rents - North
Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
% G
row
th
Y-o
-Y
Ren
ta
l ra
te (U
S$
/sm
/term
)
Land Rents - South Land Rents - North
Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North
I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S
OUTLOOK
Industrial land, Rental rate forecast RBF, Rental rate forecast
Forecast Forecast
Source: CBRE Research
South provinces: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai.
North provinces: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Hai Duong.
Demand driving factors
Continue from traditional sectors
And from rising sectors
Agriculture Retail & consumer
goods
Manufacturing
Automotive &
Motorcycle
ElectronicsE-commerce
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET
LUXURY: >US$3,500 psm
HIGH END: US$1,500 - $3,500 psm
MID END: US$800 – $1,500 psm
AFFORDABLE: <US$800 psm
45
C O N D O M I N U M
Q3 2017 Market Snapshot
New Launches
Primary Price (*)
Sold units
Other SegmentsHigh-end
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
(*) Primary Price is average asking price of actively-for-sale projects,
reflecting new projects’ pricing level. Price is exclusive of VAT and maintenance fee
46
HANOI
6,817 units
▲ 32% y-o-y
▲ 19% q-o-q
US$1,044 psm
▼ -10% y-o-y
▲ 1% q-o-q
4,059 units
▲ 19% y-o-y
▲ 24% q-o-q
1,480 units
▼ -45% y-o-y
▼ -38% q-o-q
US$1,962 psm
▼ -3% y-o-y
▼ -1% q-o-q
1,381 units
▼ -26% y-o-y
▲ 1% q-o-q
HCMC
▼ -2% y-o-y
▼ -14% q-o-q
5,963 units
US$1,244 psm
▼ -27% y-o-y
▼ -7% q-o-q
5,109 units
▼ -11% y-o-y
▼ -29% q-o-q
▼ -23% y-o-y
▼ -31% q-o-q
1,822 units
US$2,175 psm
▲ 10% y-o-y
▲ 5% q-o-q
2,098 units
▼ -3% y-o-y
▼ -8% q-o-q
Other SegmentsHigh-end
Sold Units: High Absorption Rate in Newly Launched Projects
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2015 2016 2017
No. of Sold U
nits
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
C O N D O M I N I U M
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2015 2016 2017
No. of Sold U
nits
HCMCHANOI
47
40%
39%
35%
81%
77%
84%
Absorption Rate
in Newly
Launched Project
in Q3 17
New Launch: Mid-end segment continues to expand
C O N D O M I N I U M
*Accumulated supply from 1999 to Q3 2017.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
2%
29%
39%
30%
Mid-end
85,559 units
Mid-end
37,335 units
1%
27%
32%
40%
CAGR (Mid-end) = 35%
CAGR (Market) = 25%
HCMC
0%
24%
47%
29%
1%
25%
50%
25%
Mid-end
112,448 units
Mid-end
64,361 units
CAGR (Mid-end) = 22%
CAGR (Market) = 20%
HANOI
As of 2014 As of Q3 2017
48
C O N D O M I N I U M
Hanoi - West and South West Continue to Supply Majority of New Stock
49
BA DINH
TAY HO
HOAN KIEM
DONG DAHAI BA TRUNG
LONG BIEN
HOANG MAI
CAU GIAY
TU LIEM
DONG ANH
HOAI DUC
HA DONG
THANH TRI
GIA LAMTHANH XUAN
WESTLAKE
9
67
4
3
3
1
1
18,297 units launched in Q3 17
(The West: 33%
The South West: 27%)
from 38 projects
The Emerald
My Dinh – 60% sold
PentStudio
– 55% sold
2
HUNG YEN
Aquabay Grand
Park – Tokyo Touch
– 70% sold
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district
• Number in the bubble illustrates the number of projects launched in the period
C O N D O M I N I U M
HCMC: New Launches Continue to Focus on the South and the East
5
1
1
5
2
3
2
2
D’Edge – 100%
sold
Tilia Residences – >95%sold
7,651 units launched in Q3 17
(The South: 50%;
The East: 37%)
from 21 projects
Topaz Elite – 90% sold
50Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017
• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district
• Number in the bubble illustrates the number of projects launched in the period
C O N D O M I N I U M
Pre-sale Activities – High Interest from Buyers
Dragon Riverside city – District 5
Mizuki Park – Binh Chanh District
Masteri An Phu – District 2
Q2 Thao Dien – District 2
Over 50%
reserved
51
On Time Delivery is Highly Appreciated
C O N D O M I N I U M
Buyers directly monitor
the progress of the
project
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Vingroup
Thao D
ien
Investm
ent
Phu M
y H
ung
Novaland
TN
R
An G
ia
Vietcom
real +
Tien Phat
Phat D
at
Units
Handover in 9M2017, HCMC
* In selected projects
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
8,818 units were handed over in Q3 2017,
increasing by 38% y-o-y
Handover in 9M2017, Hanoi
9,408 units were handed over in Q3 2017,
decreasing by 32% y-o-y
52
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Vin
gro
up
TNR
Ho
ldin
gs
HB
I - M
.I.K
Vin
aenco
Vie
t H
ung
CIR
I
Thu
Do
Inv
est
.
Uni
ts
Primary Price - Small adjustments across segments
Primary price calculated on NSA and without VAT
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
Asking price
(U
S$ psm
)
C O N D O M I N I U M
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017
Asking price
(U
S$ psm
)
Luxury:
▼ -1% q-o-q
High-end:
▼ -1% q-o-q
Mid-end:
▼ -2% q-o-q
Affordable:
▲ 1% q-o-q
Luxury:
0% q-o-q
High-end:
▲ 5% q-o-q
Mid-end:
▼ -3% q-o-q
Affordable:
▲ 2% q-o-q
HCMC
HANOI
53
Foreign Buyers
Foreigners may be allowed to deposit savings in Vietnam
Foreigners to be allowed to own houses in Vietnam for up to 99 years
Ministry proposes permanent residence cards for foreign
investors on Phu Quoc
C O N D O M I N I U M
Under this circular, legal foreign persons present in Vietnam in the form of branches, representative
offices, executive offices, operation offices, diplomatic missions and consular representations can
deposit under certain terms to serve their activities in Vietnam as non-residents.
Non-residents are individuals who are present in Vietnam, including foreigners residing in Vietnam
for less than 12 months; foreigners studying, treating diseases, traveling or working for
representative offices, executive offices, operation offices, diplomatic missions and consular
representative agencies of foreign legal persons in Vietnam.
Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has said it is necessary to create a special legal
framework to attract investment in special zones.
A draft law will allow foreigners to own houses for up to 99 years and allow mortgaging of
assets associated with land-use rights at foreign credit institutions, which is in line with the
2013 Constitution
Vietnam may issue permanent residence cards to foreign investors on Phu
Quoc Island under a draft law on special administrative zones submitted to the
government by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI)
54
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
New
Launch
(units)
Market Outlook - Supply
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
C O N D O M I N I U M
HCMC
HANOI
55
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
New
Launch
(units)
FORECAST
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Sold units
Market Outlook – Absorption
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
C O N D O M I N I U M
HCMC
HANOI
FORECAST
56
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Sold units
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
F
20
18
F
20
19
F
Percentage change (%
)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Market Outlook – Primary Pricing
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.
Note: (1) Base year is 2005 (2) No luxury project in Hanoi until 2011
C O N D O M I N I U M
HCMC
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%2005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
F
20
18
F
20
19
F
Percentage change
(%
)
HANOI
FORECAST
57
C O N D O M I N I U M
Key Takeaways…
Competitive Rental Market
Upcoming handovers of completed units will lead to growing competition
on the rental market. Buy-to-let investors should watch out
Expansion of Mid-end Segment
Opportunities for developers to differentiate
Continued Good Absorption
High-end offerings at prime locations still have good absorption.1
2
3
58
Hanoi: New Supply Keeps Increasing in the West
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
New launches, 2015 – Q3 2017
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2015 2016 2017
Units
Villa Terraced Shophouse
West50%
South West0%
South13%
East27%
North10%
Core
districts
Accumulated launches, YTD 2017
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
622 sold units
▼ 78% y-o-y
▼ 52% q-o-q
Primary Price
US$3,685 psm
▲ 27% y-o-y
▼ 1.2% q-o-q
1,055 units
in Q3 2017
▼ 44% y-o-y
▲ 224% q-o-q
2,619 units
YTD 2017
59% of 2016
New
la
un
ch
Primary price is based on land area, included construction cost and VAT
59
Hanoi: New Supply Keeps Increasing in The West
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
Louis City
599 units
US$2,800 psm
Park City
146 units
US$4,800 psm
233 units
US$2,500 psm
The Eden Rose
77 units
US$3,500 psm
GamudaGardens
60
Louis City The Mansions The Eden Rose Iris Home
Ha Dong district: ▼7% q-o-q: US$2,900 Thanh Tri district:
▲ 4% q-o-q: US$1,800
Hoang Mai district: ▼ 7% q-o-q:US$3,200
Q-o-Q Changes are based on secondary prices in
districts that had new launches in the review quarter
Hanoi: Outside the Center, the West Drove the Market in terms of Sold
Units and Secondary Prices
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
Sold units, 2016 – YTD 2017 Secondary prices, 2016 – YTD 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2017
Units
West East South North Center
West
Source: CBRE Vietnam.Source: CBRE Vietnam.
$3,793
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2017
West South
North East
Market Average
Resale
price
Cau
GiayTay Ho
Bac Tu
Liem
Long
BienThanh Tri
Thanh
Xuan
Nam Tu
LiemDong Da
Hoang
MaiHa Dong
Market
Average
Q-o-Q
Change
0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 4.1% 1.7% 2.0% 3.9% 6.9% 7.1% 3.3%
Y-o-Y
Change
1.7% 4.7% 7.4% 1.3% 8.4% 8.9% 3.4% - 2.7% 2.3% 6%
Secondary price is based on land area, included construction cost and VAT
Future Supply – Further Launches from Existing Projects
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
62
Lakeside Splendora
• Hoai Duc District
• 77 villas
Starlake THT – Phase 2
• Tay Ho District
• Villas, Terraced and
Shophouse
Future Supply, Q4 2017
Starlake THT – Phase 2
• Tay Ho District
• Villas, Terraced and
Shophouse
Vinhomes The Harmony
• Long Bien District
• 493 units (next launch)
The Manor Central Park
• Hoang Mai District
• ~500 units (2017)
The Manor Central Park
• Hoang Mai District
• ~500 units (2017)
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
HCMC: Most new launches from small-scaled projects
North9%
East71%
West11%
South9%
Central
Accumulated launches, YTD 2017 New launches, 2015 – Q3 2017
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Villas
Townhouses
Shophouses
2015 2016 2017
563 sold units
▲ 2% y-o-y
▼ -31% q-o-q
Primary Price
US$3,069 psm
▲ 20.5% y-o-y
▲ 11.8% q-o-q
454 units
New launches in
Q3 2017
▼ -35% y-o-y
▼ -38% q-o-q
63Source: CBRE Vietnam.
1,720 units
YTD 2017
62% of 2016
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
HCMC: New Launches at Different Price Segments
Rosita Khang Dien
118 units@ District 9
US$1,740-1,870
Dien Thuan Star Hill
50 units@ District 12
US$2,500
Simcity
800 units@ District 9
US$1,460
Citadel
68 units@ District 7
US$3,300
Van Xuan Dat Viet
72 units@ Binh Tan
US$2,300-2,500
D.9:US$1,700-1,900
▲ 2-7% q-o-q
PMH:US$3,800-5,700
▲ 2% q-o-q
Binh Tan:
US$1,600-2,600
D.12:US$1,000-2,500
▲ 3-4% q-o-q
D.2:US$3,000-10,000
▲ 10-15% q-o-q (*)
(*) Thu Thiem and vicinity.
Change in asking price in
secondary market
64
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
HCMC – Future Supply of Many Large Scale Townships
Thu Thiem Area:
HongKong Land
CII
SonKim Land
Thanh My Loi:
Hung Thinh
Novaland
Tien Phuoc
Nha Be:
GS Nha Be
District 9:
Vingroup
District 7:
Sunny World
Binh Chanh:
Nam Long
Khang Dien
L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S
Key Takeaways…
Good absorption rate
Absorption rate is expected to remain positive, especially at year end, despite lowering
new launches so far in 2017
City widespread development
Bettered connectivity across the districts would bring quality townships to untapped
locations.
Notable large-scale future supply
Large scale future supply from existing township developments.1
2
3
RETAIL MARKET
67
R E T A I L
Cost Escalation and Unclear Economic Prospects Remain Key Concerns
Source: How Active Are Retailers in Asia Pacific, June 2017.
68
TRADITIONAL REFINED STRATEGYFLAGSHIP STORE + SATELLITE STORES
Flagship store to focus on in-store experience and
brand promotion
Satellite stores to focus on
efficiency
R E T A I L
Most Fashion Retailers are Focused on Improvement of Sales Efficiency
Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.
69
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Coffee andRestaurants
Specialist Clothing Mid Range Fashion Luxury and Business Value and Denim
2015 2016 2017 H1
(Sports, Footwear)
F&B and Sporting Goods Retailers Drove Activity
% of N
ew
Retail Entrants
Source: CBRE Research, August 2017.
R E T A I L
70
Rapid Growth of Fast Fashion Brands over the Past Few Years…
2011 2016%
Change2011 2016
%
Change
Inditex 5,044 7,013 +39% 482 1,041 +116%
H&M 2,472 4,351 +76% 104 677 +551%
GAP 3,246 3,721 +15% 183 372 +103%
Fast Retailings 2,088 3,160 +51% 1,119* 1,682 +50%
American Eagle
Outfitters1,111 1,221 +10% - 86 N/A
A&F 1,069 935 (13%) 7 45 543%
Esprit 1,141 761 (33%) 627 467 (26%)
R E T A I L
ASIA PACIFICGLOBAL
* Figures as at 2012
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Corporate Information, May 2017.
71
Store Presence of major fashion brands
R E T A I L
They are Rationalizing Store Networks in Established Markets…
Australia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea
Source: CBRE Research, May 2017.
Brand Market Details
Forever 21Hong
Kong
Relocated its flagship from
Causeway Bay to Mongkok
ZARA TokyoExpanded the flagship
store by 900 sq.m.
UNIQLO SingaporeOpened the 1st flagship in
Southeast Asia
H&MHong
Kong
Opened the largest
flagship in Asia
At the same time, upgrading and relocation of
flagship store continues…
72
Major exits/closures by mass fashion brands in 2015 - 2016
2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2017
Inditex 3 21 7 21 0 1 5
H&M 0 12 0 12 0 0 1
R E T A I L
…but Expanding in Under-represented Markets Now
Source: Inditex Group, H&M Group, Inside Retail, The Hindu Business Line May 2017.
73
R E T A I L
Retailers Respond to the Market
Old NavyH&M
Both Hanoi and
HCMC
HCMC only
Massimo Dutti Pull & Bear Stradivarius
Source: H&M official site, Inside Retail Asia, Google Images
74
R E T A I L
Developers Respond to the Market
Source: Inside Retail Asia, The Saigon Times, Google Images
75
Thuan Kieu Plaza Garden Mall Crescent Mall Phase 2
Vincom Centre Ba Trieu
The Vista Walk Oxygen Mall
R E T A I L
One of the Major Challenges in Vietnam is the Lack of Quality Supply
Hanoi
788,053 sm
HCMC
845,765 sm
Da Nang City
68,675 sm
Nha Trang City
40,300 sm
Ba Ria Vung Tau
60,400 sm
Can Tho
60,200 sm
Hai Phong City
50,000 sm
Ha Long City
91,000 sm
Note: Total supply in NLA includes shopping centres, department stores, commercial retail podium, excluding stand-alone supermarkets, hypermarkets, wet markets etc.
Source: CBRE Research, CSO.
0 2 4 6 8
Phnom Penh
Hanoi
HCMC
Singapore
Bangkok
Millions
Retail Stock (sqm)
76
R E T A I L
Key Trends to Drive Retail Development in Vietnam
Construction of Metro Lines
Expansion of Middle Class
Rise of Millennials
77
78
Expanding toward developing residential and infrastructure areas
R e t a i l
CBD
East:
Already established
standalone large
scale shopping
malls
South and South West:
Largest supply cluster
Growing residential projects
and population
New CBD
Booming developments
Improving infrastructure
North:
New developing cluster
Ring road 3
Line 2A
Line 3
R E T A I L
New Metro Lines to Drive Retail Expansion
SUOI TIEN
NGUYEN VAN LINH
AN SUONG
PHU LAM
TAN KIEN
HIEP BINH PHUOC
BA QUEO
CAN GIUOC
BEN THANH HUB
East: City’s focus.…booming residential…connecting infrastructure
South and South West: …. Expanding of Phu My Hung… Large available land bank
North:…mostly in already populated areas
Source: CBRE Research, September 2017. 79
R E T A I L
Middle Class Population will be Much Bigger
Households earning US$10,000 or above per year
80
R E T A I L
More People will Trade Up in Their Consumption
Source: Google Images 81
R E T A I L
There are 17 Million Millennials in Vietnam
Source: Oxford Economics, September 2017.
0 10 20 30
Below 20
20 - 29
30 - 39
40 - 49
50 - 59
60 or above
Millions
POPULATION IN VIETNAM
Source: CBRE Research, Asia Pacific Millennial Survey, October 2016
82
R E T A I L
Younger Generation to Drive Retail Trends
They are aspiring for…
Healthy eating
Active Lifestyle
Fun & Entertainment
…and kids
Source: Google Images, CBRE Research, Asia Pacific Millennial Survey, October 2016
83
R E T A I L
Key Takeaways…
Strategic Portfolio Planning
Retailers may look for quality supply in up-and-coming neighborhood;
Ongoing refinement in shopping centres’ tenant mix
Tap on the long term growth potential
Rise of middle class and millennials
Steady market performance
More international brands to arrive1
2
3
84
Please fill out the questionnaire
Thank You
For more information regarding this presentation please contact:
CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and
proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials
and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we
have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for
independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this
publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and
professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or
subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the
material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed
to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or
redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or
expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
T +84 28 3824 6125
F +84 28 3823 8418
Email: research.vietnam@cbre.com
Recommended