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8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests, Ex-Vessel Prices,and Ex-Vessel Value, 1980-2011
Trends in Alaska Salmon Wholesale Prices, 2001-2011
Gunnar Knapp
Professor of Economics
University of Alaska Anchorage
Gunnar.Knapp@uaa.alaska.edu
907-786-7717
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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About this presentation
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game recently released preliminary estimates ofthe ex-vessel value of the 2011 Alaska commercial salmon harvest. The estimates
for 2011 and earlier years may be found at:http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.salmoncatch
I prepared the graphs on slides 4-11 to see what trends in harvests, prices andvalues have been for the past 31 years.
The Alaska Department of Revenue releases reports every four months with data
reported by large Alaska salmon processors for wholesale sales volume, value andaverage wholesale prices of major salmon products. These reports are available at:
www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/programs/other/fish/salmonreports
I prepared the graphs on slides 13-18 of this presentation to see what trends inwholesale prices for Alaska salmon products have been over the past 10 years.
I am sharing this presentation because the graphs may be of interest to others.
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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Alaska salmon harvest volumes were very similar in 2010 and 2011 for all species.
Alaska Salmon Harvest Volume
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
millionsof
poun
ds
Chum
Pink
Coho
Sockeye
Chinook
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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2010 and 2011 harvest volumes were relatively high compared with historic levels forpink salmon but relatively more average for sockeye and chum salmon. However,
sockeye harvests were significantly higher than in the period 1997-2003.
Alaska Salmon Harvest Volume, by Species
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
millionso
fpoun
ds
Pink
Sockeye
Chum
Coho
Chinook
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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In the following graphs, I show prices and value in two ways:* Nominal prices and values (not adjusted for inflation)
* Real prices and values (adjusted for inflation based on theAnchorage Consumer Price Index) and expressed in 2001 dollars)
Anchorage CPI and Inflation Adjustment Factor
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Anc
hora
ge
CPI(1982-1
984average=
100)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Infla
tiona
djus
tmen
tfac
tor
Anchorage CPI
Adjustment factor forconverting to 2011 dollars
Note: To convert from nominal dollars to "real" (inflation-adjusted)2011 dollars, multiply the price or value by the inflation-adjustment
factor for that year.
A dollar had twice thepurchasing power in 1983
that it has in 2011
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Preliminary ex-vessel prices for all species were similar in 2010 and 2011. Final ex-vessel prices(after ADFG adjusts for post-season payments) will likely be somewhat higher. Ex-vessel priceshave strengthened dramatically since 2002 for all species, and are higher than they have been
since the late or early 1990s for all species. Chinook prices are at near record levels.
Alaska Salmon Statewide Average Ex-Vessel Prices, by Species
(nominal prices-not adjusted for inflation)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Chum
Pink
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Adjusting for inflation makes ex-vessel prices appear relatively higher in the 1980s and1990s when the purchasing power of a dollar was considerably higher than today (it wastwice as high in 1983). After adjusting for inflation, the improvement in ex-vessel prices
since 2002 still appears dramatic for all species. Adjusted for inflation, prices for sockeyesalmon remain lower than they were for most of the 1990s.
Alaska Salmon Real Statewide Average Ex-Vessel Prices, by Species
(adjusted for inflation, expressed in 2011 dollars)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
$/lb(
2011
dollar
s) Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Chum
Pink
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This graphs shows nominal ex-vessel prices converted to indexes, so that trends in prices can bemore easily compared across species. Chum and pink salmon prices have increased the mostdramatically since 2002, while sockeye prices have increased the least. For each species, the
100% line shows the average price for the entire period.Indexes of Alaska Salmon Ex-Vessel Prices, 1980-2011
(not adjusted for inflation)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1
980
1
982
1
984
1
986
1
988
1
990
1
992
1
994
1
996
1
998
2
000
2
002
2
004
2
006
2
008
2
010
Source: ADFG. Note: 1988 price indexes peaked well above 200% for most species.
P
riceas
%
of1980
-2011average
Chinook
Coho
Sockeye
Pink
Chum
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Here is the same price index graph adjusted for inflation.
Indexes of Real Alaska Salmon Ex-Vessel Prices, 1980-2011
(adjusted for inflation)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1
980
1
982
1
984
1
986
1
988
1
990
1
992
1
994
1
996
1
998
2
000
2
002
2
004
2
006
2
008
2
010
Source: ADFG. Note: 1988 price indexes peaked well above 200% for most species.
Rea
lpriceas
%
of19
80-2
011average
Chinook
Coho
Sockeye
Pink
Chum
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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This graph shows the total ex-vessel value of Alaska salmon harvests in nominal dollars.The nominal ex-vessel value in 2011 (before final price adjustments) was almost the same
as in 2010 and 1992 (about $600 million) but well below the record 1988 value of $781
million. Clearly in nominal terms both 2010 and 2011 were very good years, anddramatically higher than in 2002.
Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Salmon Harvests
(expressed in nominal dollars-not adjusted for inflation)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
millionso
fdolla
rs
Chum
Pink
Coho
Sockeye
Chinook
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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Adjusted for inflation, the 2010 and 2011 harvests still show a dramatic recovery in value since2002, but remain below real-ex-vessel values for most of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Salmon Harvests
(adjusted for inflation, expressed in 2011 dollars)
0.0
300.0
600.0
900.0
1200.0
1500.0
1
980
1
982
1
984
1
986
1
988
1
990
1
992
1
994
1
996
1
998
2
000
2
002
2
004
2
006
2
008
2
010
millionso
f201
1do
llars
Chum
Pink
Coho
Sockeye
Chinook
8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11
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Alaska Department of Revenue Salmon Price Reports
Wholesale Price Data
Every four months, large Alaska salmon processors (those with sales exceeding 1million pounds in the previous calendar year) are required to submit salmon pricereports to the Alaska Department of Revenue. These reports are available at:
www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/programs/other/fish/salmonreports The reports include average wholesale prices (total value / total volume) reported by
all Alaska processors for the following four-month periods:
January-April (I)
May-August (II)
September-December (III) On the following six slides I have graphed average wholesale prices since 2001 for
the six major product forms for Alaska salmon
In general, except for salmon roe, the graphs show:
Dramatic increases in wholesale prices since 2001
Similar wholesale prices in 2010 and 2011: prices in 2011 were up for somespecies and products and down for others, but with few dramatic changes
Salmon roe prices have exhibited distinctly different trends from other salmon productprices, and also fluctuate widely between different four-month periods.
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:
Canned Sockeye and Pink ($/48-can case)
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
2001-I
2001-I
I
2001-I
II
2002-I
2002-I
I
2002-I
II
2003-I
2003-I
I
2003-I
II
2004-I
2004-I
I
2004-I
II
2005-I
2005-I
I
2005-I
II
2006-I
2006-I
I
2006-I
II
2007-I
2007-I
I
2007-I
II
2008-I
2008-I
I
2008-I
II
2009-I
2009-I
I
2009-I
II
2010-I
2010-I
I
2010-I
II
2011-I
2011-I
I
2011-I
II
I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-DecSource: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports
$/48-ca
ncase
Sockeyetalls
Sockeyehalves
Pink talls
Pink halves
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:
Frozen H&G
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
2001-I
2001-I
I
2001-I
II
2002-I
2002-I
I
2002-I
II
2003-I
2003-I
I
2003-I
II
2004-I
2004-I
I
2004-I
II
2005-I
2005-I
I
2005-I
II
2006-I
2006-I
I
2006-I
II
2007-I
2007-I
I
2007-I
II
2008-I
2008-I
I
2008-I
II
2009-I
2009-I
I
2009-I
II
2010-I
2010-I
I
2010-I
II
2011-I
2011-I
I
2011-I
II
I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-Dec; Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Report
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Pink
Chum
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:
Frozen Fillets
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
2001-I
2001-I
I
2001-I
II
2002-I
2002-I
I
2002-I
II
2003-I
2003-I
I
2003-I
II
2004-I
2004-I
I
2004-I
II
2005-I
2005-I
I
2005-I
II
2006-I
2006-I
I
2006-I
II
2007-I
2007-I
I
2007-I
II
2008-I
2008-I
I
2008-I
II
2009-I
2009-I
I
2009-I
II
2010-I
2010-I
I
2010-I
II
2011-I
2011-I
I
2011-I
II
I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-Dec; Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Report
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Pink
Chum
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors,
May-August: Fresh H&G
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Chum
Pink
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors,
May-August: Fresh Fillets
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Chum
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Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:Roe
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
2001-I
2001-I
I
2001-I
II
2002-I
2002-I
I
2002-I
II
2003-I
2003-I
I
2003-I
II
2004-I
2004-I
I
2004-I
II
2005-I
2005-I
I
2005-I
II
2006-I
2006-I
I
2006-I
II
2007-I
2007-I
I
2007-I
II
2008-I
2008-I
I
2008-I
II
2009-I
2009-I
I
2009-I
II
2010-I
2010-I
I
2010-I
II
2011-I
2011-I
I
2011-I
II
I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-Dec; Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Report
$/lb
Chinook
Sockeye
Coho
Pink
Chum
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