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Keith Kompoltowicz
Chief, Watershed Hydrology
US Army Corps of Engineers
Detroit District
Great Lakes Water Levels
MWEA Annual Meeting
Boyne Mountain Resort
June 26, 2013
Great Lakes Missions
2
1. Produces official coordinated lake level forecasts
2. Provides technical expertise to the International Joint Commission's
(IJC) Great Lakes Boards of Control
3. Maintains a large Great Lakes hydromet database
4. Maintains coordinated monthly water level statistics from 1918-2012
5. Measures flows in the connecting channels
Period of record of Great Lakes water levels (1918-2012)
• Times of above average levels, times of below average levels, times of near average levels.
• No discernible long-term cycles
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Snow
accumulation
Snow melt,
rainfall,
increased
runoff
Increased
sunshine
warms
lake water
Increased
evaporation
Hydrologic Cycle
Water Balance (Factors Affecting Water Levels)
Inflow from
Upstream
Lake
Evapora
tion
Pre
cip
itation
Outflow
Run
off
Net Basin
Supply
Net Total
Supply
2012 Net Basin Supplies
2013 Net Basin Supplies
April 15, 2012 Snow Water Equivalent
NOHRSC
April 15, 2013 Snow Water Equivalent
NOHRSC
11
Precipitation since March 25
January Lake Levels
January
2013
Level
(ft, IGLD85)
Difference
from LWD
(inches)
Difference
from Jan.
2012
(inches)
Difference
from Jan.
Record
Low, in.
Difference
from Jan.
Average
(inches)
Superior 600.36 -9 -1 +6 -13
Michigan-
Huron 576.02 -18 -17 -1 -29
St. Clair 572.57 +3 -20 +25 -13
Erie 570.28 +13 -22 +24 -7
Ontario 244.03 +9 -17 +22 -7
Lowest monthly mean on record
since 1918
June Lake Levels (projected)
June 2013
Level
(ft, IGLD85)
Difference
from LWD
(inches)
Difference
from June
2012
(inches)
Difference
from June
Record
Low, in.
Difference
from June
Average
(inches)
Superior 601.26 +2 +3 +16 -7
Michigan-
Huron 577.59 +1 -1 +11 -19
St. Clair 574.09 +22 0 +21 -7
Erie 571.60 +28 0 +30 -4
Ontario 246.39 +37 +8 +36 2
Seasonal Rises
2013 2012
Superior 14” 15”
Michigan
-Huron 19” 4”
St. Clair 18” 0
Erie 16” 0
Ontario 28” 8”
Based on monthly mean water levels
2013 thru June’s projections
Water Level Forecasting Monthly Bulletin since the 1950s, coordinated with
Environment Canada
NBS Water Level
Statistical models, a large basin runoff model, weather
forecasts, current conditions and scientific judgment to
predict a 6 month NBS sequence.
NBS sequences are routed using a coordinated model to
produce water level forecasts
16
17
18
19
BUILDING STRONG® 20
21
BUILDING STRONG®
Contact Information
Keith Kompoltowicz
(313) 226-6442
Keith.w.kompoltowicz@usace.army.mil
http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/
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