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© Club of Rome 2015
Graeme MaxtonBarcelona, December 2015
The future of employment
© Club of Rome 2015
What is the Club of Rome?
© Club of Rome 2015
Where we are we now?
Business as usual
Limits to Growth
Planet's initial carrying capacityPlanet's current carrying capacitySustainable path
Carrying
Capacity
%
© Club of Rome 2015
Four serious environmental consequences - 1- Climate Change
© Club of Rome 2015Hurricane Sandy 2012
© Club of Rome 2015Typhoon Haiyan 2013, 6300 dead
© Club of Rome 2015
Australia 2013
© Club of Rome 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
CO2 in atmosphere(←scale)
deg Cppm
Temperature rise(scale →)
0.9
m
Sea level rise(scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
Without change, we will pass +2ºC in 2050
Source: Randers, 2052 model Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
401X
© Graeme Maxton 2015
Two degrees is a lot
© Club of Rome 2015Munich RE
200% increase in climactic events over 30 years
© Club of Rome 2015
Government spending will be diverted progressively towards repairs
Source: Randers, 2052 model
197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520500
30
60
90
120
150
World GDP
Non-discretionaryspending
(repair, adaptation, mitigation)
G$ / yr
Consumption
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Traditionalinvestment, 24% of GDP
will rise to 35%
© Club of Rome 2015
Without change, think resilience– higher migration flows
– more sea defences
– need to reinforce buildings in areas unused to extremes of temperature and humidity
– increased incidence of infectious diseases and poverty
– water shortages, floods and food chain disruption
– finance sector instability and economic shocks
– civil discord and the rise of political extremism
© Club of Rome 2015
Four serious environmental problems 2 - Pollution
“Protect the Environment”
© Club of Rome 2015
Algal bloom, Florida
© Club of Rome 2015Pacific trash vortex
© Club of Rome 2015Source: Greenpeace
© Club of Rome 2015
Four serious environmental problems
3 – Resource destruction
Chuquicamata, Chile, the world's largest circumference open pit copper mine
© Club of Rome 2015Sumatra, Indonesia
© Club of Rome 2015
© Club of Rome 2015
Lake Hume 1% fullMurray Darling Basin Australia 2007
© Club of Rome 2015
Four serious environmental problems 4 – Biodiversity Loss
© Club of Rome 2015The bottle tops, batteries and plastic parts look like food
© Club of Rome 2015Loss of freshwater resources: Aral Sea, once the world's fourth largest lake
© Club of Rome 2015
Why do we not act?
© Club of Rome/Graeme Maxton 2015
1990 1995 2000 2005 201075
85
95
105
115
125
135
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
Source: IMF database 2014, data is for All Advanced economies, 1990-2013, Poverty statistics from OECD,org/social/equality.htm Ave income of top 10% as a multiple of bottom 10%, after tax, adjusted for household size
Despite growth in the developed world unemployment has risen
GDP
Unemployment
We think (wrongly) that growth brings jobs
Growth
2000
=100
%Unem-ployed
Advanced economies
© Club of Rome/Graeme Maxton 2015
We think (wrongly) that growth reduces inequality
OECD October 2014
© Club of Rome/Graeme Maxton 2015
We think (wrongly) that growth fixes poverty
48 live on less than $2 a day32 breathe polluted air30 have too little to eat24 have no electricity23 have no shelter17 are illiterate17 have no clean drinking water16 have no toilets1 owns half the total wealth
If the world were a village of 100 people....
© Club of Rome/Graeme Maxton 2015
We fear change
Occupy Vancouver and New York
© Club of Rome 2015
The future of employment
© Club of Rome 2015
Science fiction is about to become fact
© Club of Rome 2015
In the developed world, 47% of jobs at risk
Jobs with high probability of redundancy within 20 years
Insurance clerks 98%Bank credit analysts 98%Auditors and accountants 94%Legal assistants 94%Waiters and waitresses 94%Couriers and messengers 94%Retail assistants 92%Taxi drivers 89%Carpenters 72%
Source: The Future of Employment, How susceptible are jobs to computerisation, Frey and Osborne, September 2013
© Club of Rome 2015
Close personal contact, mostly low pay
Jobs with low probability of redundancy within 20 years
Kindergarten teachers 15%Hairdressers 11%Animal trainers 10%Police officers 10%Fitness trainers 9%Lawyer partners 4%Make-up artists 1%Choreographers 0.4%
© Club of Rome 2015
What does this mean?
● For unemployment rates and welfare costs?
● Consumption and spending patterns?
● Inequality – Back to the Dark Ages?
● For the finance sector?
– Loan repayments
– Asset values
© Club of Rome 2015
How do we solve these problems?
1 – shorten the workingyear, the working week and the working day 2 – pay home carers3 – raise retirementage for those who wish4 – boost welfare payments for a guaranteed living wage5 – increase unionisation
© Club of Rome 2015
How do we pay for this?
● Tax resources, not labour
● Tax computer bits
● Tax businesses on their externalities
● Restrict trade to protect jobs, if necessary
● Let the dead pay
© Club of Rome 2015
We need other changes too
Current Economic
system
Sustainablesystem
BetterEconomic
system
● A large, complex and unstable financial system
● Corporate power● The belief that
economies need to grow
● An energy transition● A food revolution to
feed 8-9bn people
One that livesin harmony withnature
One where people haveincomes and purpose, withless inequality
© Club of Rome 2015
And we need political change
The pursuit of growth, so essential after WW2, is the source of our current problems
- resource use, pollution and climate change
- inequality and unemployment
More growth will make these problems worse
Green business and the circular economy buy time
The market cannot reduce emissions or inequality
We need effective government and functioning global institutions
That means political change, to elect people with understanding and vision
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