View
0
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
Eloy Alvarez PelegrySecretary GeneralUNION FENOSA gas6th June
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
• Electricity demand and ageing of existing facilities drive new generation capacity development
• Environmental policies favour gas & renewables
• CCGTs are “easy” and “complex”
• Prices are now a concern
• Items for security of supply:
Diversification (origins, gas infrastructures generation mix)
Participation throughout the gas chain
Electricity demand and ageing of existing facilities drive new generation capacity development
World Electricity demand (2002-2030)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
X 2
Source: IEA
European Electricity demand (2002-2030)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
X 1.5
Source: IEA
Spanish Electricity demand (2002-2030)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2002 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
X 1.8
Source: EU, MITyC
Age of generation facilites EU 29
Source: WEC
6%
50%
6%
48%
19%
17%
19%
44%
23%
22%
38%
52%
11%
37%
4%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nuclear Coal Natural Gas oil
<10 years 10-20 years 20-30 years >30 years
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
Environmental policies favour gas & renewables
ETS Directiveenters into
force
European Level
2003 2005 2007
March: EUcountriesto submit
NAPsto the
Commission
June:Countries
to submit NAPsfor second
trading phase
Second trading phase(First Kyoto period)
Country Level
20122004 2006 2008
ETS critical reviewAddition
of other sectorsand
other gases?
May:Accessioncountriesto submit
NAPsto the
Commission
Firsttradingphase
Commissionto approve
NAPs
April:Installationsto surrenderallowances
for 2005emissions
February:Kyoto
Protocolenters
into force
Final NAPapproval?
Kyoto Protocol Process
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
CCGTs are “easy”
Energy Efficiency (%)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
COALTRADITIONAL
GASTURBINE
COALSUPERCRÍTIC
DIESELCCGT
Source: Own elaboration
Estimated construction period (years)
Source: Own elaboration
0
1
2
3
4
+5
CCGTCoalNuclear
Typical Investment (€/kW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
NUCLEAR HYDRO COAL CCGT
Source: Own elaboration
Land requirement (Ha)
CCGTCCTT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ha
Source: Own elaboration
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
CCGTs are “complex”
Source: Cera, Wood Mackenzie & Own elaboration
Kenai
Libya LNG Damietta
Idku
Atlantic LNG 1Atlantic LNG 2Atlantic LNG 3Atlantic LNG 4
Bolivia LNG
Perú LNG
P. Deltana
Angola LNG
Mauritania
Skikda
ArzewBethioua
Snohvit
Sakhalin
Oman LNGQalhat LNG
Qatargas LNG 2
Qatargas LNG 3
Yemen
Qatargas LNGRas Gas 1RasGas 2
NIOC LNGIran LNG
Abu Dhabi LNG
Alba GuineaEcuatorial
Nigeria LNG BaseNigeria LNG Expansion
Nigeria LNG Plus
Brass LNGOlokola LNG
NLNG 6NLNG 7
Arun
MLNGMLNG DuaMLNG Tiga
Darwin
Australia NWS 1Australia NWS 2Australia NWS 3Australia NWS 4
Bontang
Brunei
Australia NWS 5Gorgon
Tangguh
Donggi
SunriseBrowse Basin
Ust Luga
Gassi Touil
Pars LNGPersian LNG
Ras Gas 3RL 3
EXISTING LIQUEFACTION PLANT
LIQUEFACTION PLANT UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PROBABLE LIQUEFACTION PLANT
POSIBLE LIQUEFACTION PLANT
Reserves: 23.783 bcmProduction: 1.103 bcm
LNG current production: 94,5 bcm/a
Existing LNG trains: 32
Reserves: 6.173 bcm
Production: 29 bcm
LNG current production: 22,7 bcm/a
Existing LNG trains: 5
Reserves: 68.785 bcm
Production: 1.163 bcm
LNG current production: 20,6 bcm/a
Existing LNG trains: 4
Reserves: 80.787 bcm
Production: 396 bcm
LNG current production: 108,8 bcm/a
Existing LNG trains: 40
ASIA-PACIFIC(*) ASIA-PACIFIC
SOUTH ATLANTIC
MAGREB - MIDDLE EAST
NORTH ATLANTIC
Shtokman
(*) Includes USA and Canada
International gas marketsNG & LNG ChainsE&P
PIPELINE TRANSPORT PIPELINE TRANSPORT
PRESSURE & M ETERING STATION
LIQUEFACTION PLANT
MARITIME TRANSPORT
LNG STORAGE
REGASIFICATION PLANT
TRANSPORT GRID
DISTRIBUTION GRID
CONSUMERS
LNG STORAGE
UNDERGROUND
TREATMENT
STORAGE
Source: Own elaboration
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
Prices are now a concern
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
Indicative relationships gas,coal,CO2.
Gas ($/ )
Natural gas
Coal
-80
-30
20
70
120
170
2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0
MMBtu
Co
al($
/t)
CO2 40 €/t
CO2 5 €/t
Source: Own elaboration
Generation cost structure (high prices scenario )
11%22%
9%
71%32%
12%
37%
5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CCGT Coal Superc
Capital O&M Fuel CO2
Source: Own elaboration
Brent and MCIS price evolution
Source: Own elaboration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
jan-9
1se
p-91
may
-92
jan-9
3se
p-93
may
-94
jan-9
5se
p-95
may
-96
jan-9
7se
p-97
may
-98
jan-9
9se
p-99
may
-00
jan-0
1se
p-01
may
-02
jan-0
3se
p-03
may
-04
jan-0
5se
p-05
$/t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$/b
bl
MCIS Brent
Natural Gas supplies to Spain
Source: Own elaboration
North Atlantic
South Atlantic
Asia
North Africa&
Middle East
Spanish demand 2005
32,3 bcm
8%
15% 77%
0%
Items for security of supply: Diversification (origins,infrastructure gen.mix)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
bcm
Asia
North Africa&ME
North Atlantic
South Atlantic
Demand
40
0
510
15
20
25
30
35
1.998 1.999 2.000 2.001 2.002 2.003 2.004 2.005
bcm
Domestic Algeria Libya Egypt Middle East Norway T&T Nigeria Others
GAS TO POWER EUROPE
Sabón
ReganosaSagunto
LIQUEFACTION SHIPPING
Cádiz Knutsen
Galicia SpiritSEGAS - Damietta
QalhatLNG Oman
CCGT
NGS
Aceca
Palos
Sagunto
REGASIFICATION
2001 2005 2007
Damietta, Egypt (photograph)
and QalhatLNG Oman
PROJECTS
Items for security of supply: Participation throughout the gas chain
GAS & POWER IN EUROPE
Thank you for your attention
Recommended