View
213
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
From the Lab to UbiquitySpeech Technology’s Road to Mainstream
Eric Chang, Ph.D.Assistant Managing DirectorMSR Asia Advanced Technology Center
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Impact of Disruptive Impact of Disruptive Technology Technology
9/3/2004, 6:03 AM, Pacific Green Bay9/3/2004, 6:03 AM, Pacific Green Bay
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Human Language Human Language Capability Capability
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption LifecycleLifecycle
Successful technology adoptions increase exponentiallyBut it’s not a smooth process, there is a “chasm”*
**Geoffrey Moore, Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the ChasmCrossing the Chasm
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption LifecycleLifecycle
VisionarieVisionariess
LateLateMajorityMajority
EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter LaggardsLaggardsEarlyEarly
MajorityMajority
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
VisionariesVisionariesEarly AdoptersEarly AdoptersEarly MajorityEarly MajorityLate MajorityLate MajorityLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
VisionariesVisionaries Technology for technology’s sakeTechnology for technology’s sakeTechnology fansTechnology fansWon’t be a major market Won’t be a major market
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Early AdopterEarly Adopter Adopts technology for its benefits Adopts technology for its benefits Not afraid to try something newNot afraid to try something new
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Early MajorityEarly Majority
Will not be the first to adopt a new Will not be the first to adopt a new technology technology Practical and utilitarian Practical and utilitarian Heavily influenced by what other Heavily influenced by what other people are doingpeople are doingStrong “viral” effectStrong “viral” effect
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Late MajorityLate Majority
Will adopt a technology only when Will adopt a technology only when necessarynecessaryBy this stage, a few dominant By this stage, a few dominant technology providers have emerged.technology providers have emerged.
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Laggards Laggards
Suspicious of new technologySuspicious of new technologyCan get alone fine without new Can get alone fine without new technology technology
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Discontinuous TechnologyDiscontinuous Technology
Not a simple extension of Not a simple extension of repackaging of existing technologyrepackaging of existing technologyAutomobile replacing horse and cartsAutomobile replacing horse and cartsTelephones replacing telegraphsTelephones replacing telegraphs
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption LifecycleLifecycle
VisionarieVisionariess
LateLateMajorityMajority
EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter LaggardsLaggardsEarlyEarly
MajorityMajority
ChasmChasm
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Into the TornadoInto the Tornado
VisionariVisionarieses
LateLateMajorityMajority
EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter LaggardsLaggardsEarlyEarly
MajorityMajority
TornadoTornado
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
Visionaries: Speech Search & Visionaries: Speech Search & TranscriptionTranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
Visionaries: Speech Search & Visionaries: Speech Search & TranscriptionTranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Example: Visual Audio Example: Visual Audio NotebookNotebook
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Example: Visual Audio Example: Visual Audio NotebookNotebook
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Example: Automatic Example: Automatic Processing of VoicemailProcessing of Voicemail
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
Visionaries: Speech Search & Visionaries: Speech Search & TranscriptionTranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Early Adopter: DictationEarly Adopter: Dictation
Continuous dictation first sold in 1996Continuous dictation first sold in 1996ShelfwareShelfware
English, Chinese, and Japanese English, Chinese, and Japanese dictation in Office XP in 2001dictation in Office XP in 2001Current statusCurrent status
Vital for people who need itVital for people who need itNo viral effect yetNo viral effect yetDifficulties in handling speaker accent, Difficulties in handling speaker accent, wearing microphone, individual wearing microphone, individual vocabularyvocabulary
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Language is a live Language is a live mediummedium
Dalian: Dalian: 腕狭子 腕狭子 Japan: WaiShaTsuJapan: WaiShaTsuEngland: White ShirtEngland: White ShirtUS: SuitUS: SuitJapan: SeBiRooJapan: SeBiRooEngland: Saville RowEngland: Saville Row
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
Visionaries: Speech Search & Visionaries: Speech Search & TranscriptionTranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption LifecycleLifecycle
YearYear Nuance Nuance SalesSales
19961996 $ 1.5M$ 1.5M
19971997 $ 4.4M$ 4.4M
20012001 $ 23.0M$ 23.0M
20022002 $ 32.6M$ 32.6M
20032003 $ 42.1M$ 42.1M
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
The Business Value of Speech for Call Centers
Customer Focus
Less Time/Call
Efficient Agents
Less Time in Queue
Increased System Usage
Customer Retention
$5/call to $.20/call
Reduced Call Time
Fewer Agents
New Revenue Opportunities
Up-Sell/Cross-Sell
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Amtrak61% Increase in Satisfaction
75% Increase in Automation Rate
90% Increase in Ticket Sales
Thrifty Car Rental40% increase in CSR productivity $1 million first year savings
Merrill LynchAutomation rates from 82% to 90%
First Year Savings $6.3M
Call Center Examples
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
The Business Value of Speech The Business Value of Speech for Operatorsfor Operators
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Data RevenueVoice Revenue
RevenueIn US$M
The mobile operators need to make money from value-added services!
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Speech Makes Value-Added Speech Makes Value-Added Services UsableServices Usable
Calendaring / Email E-Commerce / Alerts
Search/BrowsingVoice Dialing
Location Based
Places: Auto Services
Speech SMS / MMS
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Microsoft Speech Microsoft Speech Server & SDKServer & SDK
Extends ASP.NET and Visual StudioExtends ASP.NET and Visual StudioCall center + multimodal solutionCall center + multimodal solution
Unifies web & call centerUnifies web & call center
Reduces TCOReduces TCO
Introduced in March 2004Introduced in March 2004
Strong partner ecosystemStrong partner ecosystemStrategic partnerships with Intel, Intervoice, ScansoftStrategic partnerships with Intel, Intervoice, Scansoft
200+ Beta Program Applications200+ Beta Program Applications
300+ Partner Applications300+ Partner Applications
30,000 Speech SDK Users30,000 Speech SDK Users
ASP.NET
Speech
Speech SDK
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Speech Speech Recognition: Recognition: Approaching Human Error RateApproaching Human Error Rate
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Microsoft licensed CMU Sphinx-II
Whisper in MSR
Speech in Office XP
Speech in Tablet/Office 11
Speech in Longhorn HumanHumanError RateError Rate
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1982 1988 1994 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
The best system in the year
Natu
raln
ess
Text to Speech Text to Speech Approaching Human NaturalnessApproaching Human Naturalness
Na
tura
lne
ss
HumanHumanNaturalnessNaturalness
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle
Visionaries: Meeting TranscriptionVisionaries: Meeting TranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
What is Leapfrog?What is Leapfrog?
$50
$120
$15
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Leapfrog’s TechnologyLeapfrog’s Technology
Crucial technologyCrucial technologySpeech compression technologySpeech compression technologyUsing simple touch sensitive screen Using simple touch sensitive screen with new books and speech coding with new books and speech coding chip.chip.
Sound business modelSound business model>80% highly recommendation rate >80% highly recommendation rate in Amazonin AmazonInvented by a lawyer trying to Invented by a lawyer trying to teach his 3 year old child to read!teach his 3 year old child to read!
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle:Lifecycle:Late Majority, Case of Late Majority, Case of LeapfrogLeapfrog
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003
LeapfrogAnnual Sales inUS$M
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
SummarySummaryDisruptive technology adoption follows Disruptive technology adoption follows the technology adoption lifecyclethe technology adoption lifecycleNatural language understanding is Natural language understanding is hardhard
Domain-free reasoning & common sense Domain-free reasoning & common sense hardesthardestTruly human-level understanding likely Truly human-level understanding likely elusiveelusive
Adoption of speech technology will Adoption of speech technology will increaseincrease
2-3 years: telephony, multimodal, 2-3 years: telephony, multimodal, accessibility.accessibility.7-10 years: intelligent assistance, meeting 7-10 years: intelligent assistance, meeting search/transcription, speech everywhere. search/transcription, speech everywhere.
Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter
Acknowledgement Acknowledgement
Faculty Forum Speech, 2003, Kai-Fu Faculty Forum Speech, 2003, Kai-Fu LeeLeeCrossing the ChasmCrossing the Chasm, Geoff Moore, Geoff MooreInto the TornadoInto the Tornado, Geoff Moore, Geoff Moore
echang@microsoft.com echang@microsoft.com
http://Research.microsoft.com/users/echanghttp://Research.microsoft.com/users/echang
Recommended