Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems Meha Jain, Ph.D. Candidate...

Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems

Meha Jain, Ph.D. CandidateDept of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology

Columbia University

Governance of Adaptation

• Need to understand autonomous adaptation and drivers of adaptive capacity to design effective adaptation policies• Framework• Case Study

Framework Goals

• Identify which socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors enhance adaptive capacity

• Identify current gaps in research methodology and important next steps for adaptation research

Methods

• Searched for studies that assess the socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors that are associated with increased adaptive capacity • ISI Web of Knowledge• 200 studies that were most cited• Span the disciplines of anthropology,

economics, geography, psychology, and social-ecology

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Factors Associated With Adaptive Capacity

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Adaptation Research Next Steps

• Consider multiple factors in the same analysis

• Multi-disciplinary

• Explicitly consider climate as a driving factor

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Economic

Decision to Cope

Climate

Biophysical

Perceptional

Social

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Adaptive

Economic

Decision to Cope

Climate

Biophysical

Perceptional

Social

Current Research Limitations

• Quantify whether a changed behavior is actually adaptive

Current Research Limitations

• Understand the scale of interactions

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Current Research Limitations

• Understand the scale of interactions

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Current Research Limitations

• Understand the scale of interactions

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New FrameworkFr

am

ew

ork

Effects

Multiple Drivers

Nati

onal or

Glo

bal S

cale

Regio

nal Sca

le

Loca

l Sca

le

Decision-making

Agricultural Communities in Northwest India

Case

Stu

dy

Study Area

• Hierarchical study design• Household-level

Surveys• Regional remote

sensing analyses

Meth

ods

Household-level Adaptation

• Are farmers shifting behavior based on climate variability?

• Which socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors are associated with farmers who adapt?

• Are these coping strategies adaptive?

House

hold

-Sca

le

Effects

Multiple Drivers

Decision-making

Adaptation Strategies

• Switch crop type

• Shift planting date

• Alter cropping intensity

Water-intensive Drought-tolerant

Main Monsoon Crops

Cotton Cash-CropShort Duration

Castor Cash-CropLong Duration

Sorghum Household-useShort Duration

Millet Household-useShort Duration

Wate

r In

tensi

ve

House

hold

-Sca

le

Crop Planting Date by Rainfall

-3

-2

-1

1 2 3

Adjusted R2= .173

Previous Crop Failure

Water Insecurity

Precipitation Required to Sow

Land Owned

Asset Index

House

hold

-Sca

le

Adjusted R2= .127

Land Owned

Soil Fertility

Date Planted

# of Irrigations

Amt of Fertilizer

Amt of Pesticides

Predictors of Cotton Yield

Parameter Value

House

hold

-Sca

le

Regional-level Adaptation

• How consistent are these patterns at the regional scale?

Effects

Multiple Drivers

Regio

nal Sca

le

Decision-making

Loca

l Sca

le

Study Area

• Hierarchical study design• Household-level

Surveys• Regional remote

sensing analyses• Assess cropping

patterns and their association with climate

Meth

ods

First Planting Date

Crop 1Crop 2

May November April

Remote Sensing AnalysesR

egio

nal-

Sca

le

MODIS (250 m) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)

WaterSingle Double Triple

Association with Climate

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Rainfall (avg mm/day – TRMM)Cropping Intensity

Regio

nal-

Sca

le

WaterLowMedium High

Conclusions

• Farmers alter cropping strategies based on inter-annual rainfall variability at both local and regional scales

• Farmers with irrigation access are less likely to alter cropping strategies

• Yield is best explained by number of irrigations but is not affected by planting date

Conclusions

• Framework allows us to assess:• the relative importance of various inter-

disciplinary drivers for decision-making• whether coping strategies are adaptive• whether our results are generalizeable

across a broader region

Acknowledgements

Advising CommitteeDr. Ruth DeFries, Dr. Shahid NaeemDr. Trevor Birkenholtz, Dr. Vijay Modi, Dr. Ben Orlove, Dr. Paige West

CollaboratorsDr. Chris Small, Dr. Gillian Galford, Dr. Pinki Mondal, Columbia Water Center (CWC), Amir Jina (and photo credits)

FundingNSF, NASA, CWC, AC4, National Geographic