Upload
percival-kory-neal
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Framework for Assessing Adaptive Capacity in Social-Ecological Systems
Meha Jain, Ph.D. CandidateDept of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology
Columbia University
Governance of Adaptation
• Need to understand autonomous adaptation and drivers of adaptive capacity to design effective adaptation policies• Framework• Case Study
Framework Goals
• Identify which socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors enhance adaptive capacity
• Identify current gaps in research methodology and important next steps for adaptation research
Methods
• Searched for studies that assess the socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors that are associated with increased adaptive capacity • ISI Web of Knowledge• 200 studies that were most cited• Span the disciplines of anthropology,
economics, geography, psychology, and social-ecology
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Factors Associated With Adaptive Capacity
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Adaptation Research Next Steps
• Consider multiple factors in the same analysis
• Multi-disciplinary
• Explicitly consider climate as a driving factor
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Economic
Decision to Cope
Climate
Biophysical
Perceptional
Social
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Adaptive
Economic
Decision to Cope
Climate
Biophysical
Perceptional
Social
Current Research Limitations
• Quantify whether a changed behavior is actually adaptive
Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
Current Research Limitations
• Understand the scale of interactions
Lite
ratu
re R
evie
w
New FrameworkFr
am
ew
ork
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Nati
onal or
Glo
bal S
cale
Regio
nal Sca
le
Loca
l Sca
le
Decision-making
Agricultural Communities in Northwest India
Case
Stu
dy
Study Area
• Hierarchical study design• Household-level
Surveys• Regional remote
sensing analyses
Meth
ods
Household-level Adaptation
• Are farmers shifting behavior based on climate variability?
• Which socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors are associated with farmers who adapt?
• Are these coping strategies adaptive?
House
hold
-Sca
le
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Decision-making
Adaptation Strategies
• Switch crop type
• Shift planting date
• Alter cropping intensity
Water-intensive Drought-tolerant
Main Monsoon Crops
Cotton Cash-CropShort Duration
Castor Cash-CropLong Duration
Sorghum Household-useShort Duration
Millet Household-useShort Duration
Wate
r In
tensi
ve
House
hold
-Sca
le
Crop Planting Date by Rainfall
-3
-2
-1
1 2 3
Adjusted R2= .173
Previous Crop Failure
Water Insecurity
Precipitation Required to Sow
Land Owned
Asset Index
House
hold
-Sca
le
Adjusted R2= .127
Land Owned
Soil Fertility
Date Planted
# of Irrigations
Amt of Fertilizer
Amt of Pesticides
Predictors of Cotton Yield
Parameter Value
House
hold
-Sca
le
Regional-level Adaptation
• How consistent are these patterns at the regional scale?
Effects
Multiple Drivers
Regio
nal Sca
le
Decision-making
Loca
l Sca
le
Study Area
• Hierarchical study design• Household-level
Surveys• Regional remote
sensing analyses• Assess cropping
patterns and their association with climate
Meth
ods
First Planting Date
Crop 1Crop 2
May November April
Remote Sensing AnalysesR
egio
nal-
Sca
le
MODIS (250 m) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)
WaterSingle Double Triple
Association with Climate
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Rainfall (avg mm/day – TRMM)Cropping Intensity
Regio
nal-
Sca
le
WaterLowMedium High
Conclusions
• Farmers alter cropping strategies based on inter-annual rainfall variability at both local and regional scales
• Farmers with irrigation access are less likely to alter cropping strategies
• Yield is best explained by number of irrigations but is not affected by planting date
Conclusions
• Framework allows us to assess:• the relative importance of various inter-
disciplinary drivers for decision-making• whether coping strategies are adaptive• whether our results are generalizeable
across a broader region
Acknowledgements
Advising CommitteeDr. Ruth DeFries, Dr. Shahid NaeemDr. Trevor Birkenholtz, Dr. Vijay Modi, Dr. Ben Orlove, Dr. Paige West
CollaboratorsDr. Chris Small, Dr. Gillian Galford, Dr. Pinki Mondal, Columbia Water Center (CWC), Amir Jina (and photo credits)
FundingNSF, NASA, CWC, AC4, National Geographic