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Foresight 101
Automotive Supply Channel’s Future: Where are we headed?
Presented by: Garry Golden
Presentation Copy: www.garrygolden.com/Arizona2014
Taking Action Drivers of Change Warm up & Foresight 101
Next
ten years Last
ten years
More of Less Change ahead?
In the News
Images Removed
A Goodyear Tire dealership in San Francisco now requires Google Glass devices to be worn by mechanics during tire installation and vehicle system repair. The shop provides customers and insurance agents with a video copy of the installation.
True False
How do we prepare talent culture for the age of wearable technologies that might bring more transparency, accountability and assistance?
Applications: Transparency & Support
Across the Supply Chain (e.g. Inventory; Check-in; Installation)
Unique Content for Technicians & Customers
The Manufacturing Institute is creating a National Manufacturing Badge System for skills and achievements needed to be successful in today’s Advanced Manufacturing workplace
True False
How do we apply micro-credentials to training talent and empowering enthusiasts?
The Cumulating Career Path
Micro-credentials & the Future of Learning & Work
Badges are Not What They Appear…
Micro-Credentials as a Platform for Training & Learning Pathways
Hankook has invested in Dijain a retail startup founded by a 28-year old South Korean. The store provides customers with kits and training on 3D design, manufacturing and then supports installation.
True False
Building Enthusiasts in an Age of Design-focused Prosumers
Impact of Design & Maker Culture on Manufacturers, Distributors & Retails?
What is a Futurist?
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Every day I make an effort to move toward what I do not understand.
- Cellist, Yo-Yo Ma
How do you think about the Future of an industry or regional economy?
Continued Growth Decline / Collapse
Disciplined / Constrained Transformed
Foresight 101: Four Future Scenarios
?
Images Removed
• Risk: Growing Gap in Changes Inbound changes (Global) vs Outbound changes (Personal)
• Opportunity: Foundation = Movement not an Industry Movements can thrive in an age of digital and fragmented marketplaces
• Imperative: Commit to Learning & Innovating Focus on understanding the why; Find people and partners to show you the how
2015 – 2025: Changes Around Us…
Empowering
Enthusiasts
Data-driven Innovations
Empowering Local Shops
Empowered Enthusiasts… Research Influence & Inspiration Niche Markets / Communities Designing & Making Things Shaping Local Marketplaces
Demographic Transitions: 2015 - 2025
Aging Boomers Millennials Grow up
Aging Baby Boomers: Transforming the Economy (Again)
By 2015
Regional Dynamics By 2030
60%
consumer
spending
40%
wealth 65+ pop.
71MM
Spending Population
Wellness Focus
Baby Boomer Strategies:
Mobility = Youthful Feeling
Performance Bridge to Safety & Comfort
Ownership or Access ?
Shops as Social Places
Tools for Storytelling
Millennials (Gen Y)
Seamless & On-Demand
Involve Me Data Driven, Measure More
Millennials (Gen Y)
Seamless & On-Demand
• Apps & Membership eliminate perception of transaction
• I share data because I want you to anticipate my needs
Millennials (Gen Y)
Involve Me: Crowd Projects
Millennials (Gen Y)
Involve me: Sharing Economy (Performance + Fleets?)
Source: Fearless Dollar
Millennials (Gen Y)
Data Driven, Measure More
• My Phone is a Vehicle Accessory & Control Hub
• Show me the data
Millennial Strategies: • Membership Models
• Crowd Projects
• Connected Cars + Performance
= Speed & Flow • Branding for
Urban On-demand Fleets
2015 – 2025: Changes Around Us…
Empowering
Enthusiasts
Data-driven Innovations
Empowering Local Shops
Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation
Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Use analytics to influence customer behavior
Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models)
Use of ‘Intelligent Assistants’ & Natural Language
Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Business challenges:
• Increased costs for analytics
• Insights to drive customer engagement
Image & Video Analytics
Scanning Social Media… • Find potential enthusiasts
• Identify brands and models
• See context of
Performance Experiences
Innovations Beyond 2015
Connected Device (Internet of Things) Analytics
What % of performance products will be ‘connected’?
How might connected parts transform the supply chain?
Product Integration Strategy: Place Many Bets, Watch Many Indicators of Change
Pendulums will swing: Empowered OEMs & Mfg
for Mission Critical Empowered Suppliers for
Behavior Focused Apps Non-Auto Industry Dynamics: Internet of Things (IoT) &
Data Privacy Standards
Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation
Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Use analytics to influence customer behavior
Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models)
Use of ‘Intelligent Assistants’ & Natural Language
Co
mp
etit
ive
Ad
van
tage
Complexity of Data & Relationship Management
Descriptive What happened?
Predictive What might happen?
Prescriptive What should happen?
Guiding Customer Behavior Evolution of Supply Chain & Prescriptive Analytics
Co
mp
etit
ive
Ad
van
tage
Complexity of Data & Relationship Management
Descriptive Insight Transaction History This is last month’s statement
Predictive Insight Budget & Spending Forecast This is what we think you will spend this week
Prescriptive Insight
Personal Spending Goals This is your budget for dinner
Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior
Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior
Consider Customer Life Goals with Money Management
+
What is the value of guiding customer behavior?
Implications for Predictive & Prescription Analytics?
WD Network Services Services to Mfg & Shops based on Market & Sentiment Analysis
Shop Tools & Services
Customers Look to Shops for Guidance; Technicians as Coaches
Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation
Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Use analytics to influence customer behavior
Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models)
Use of ‘Intelligent Assistants’ & Natural Language
Trend: Data Models for Big Data Innovation
Link Graph
Social Graph
Interest Graph
Health Graph
Learning Graph
???
Graph Database Model for Connected Data
Transportation Graph ???
Entity (Node)
Relationship
Graph Database Model for Recommendation Systems
Entity (Node)
Relationship
Ability to ask new questions to expand business:
Who owns x-vehicle? Who is 50+?
Who purchased or installed x-part? Who Tweeted about it?
Show me people like them – that have not yet purchased x-part?
Graph Database Model for Customer Segmentation
New Sources of Data Inputs
Graph Database Model for Path-finding & Logistics
Hyper Efficient Logistics as a Service
Graph Example: Location & Path-finding for Delivery
Bought startup:
Venture Capital is Betting Big on Graph-driven Supply Chains
Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation
Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Use analytics to influence customer behavior
Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models)
Use of ‘Intelligent Assistants’ & Natural Language
Popular Images of the Intelligent Assistant
If you look at what Apple is doing with 'Siri,' IBM is doing with 'Watson,' Google is doing with Now, [Microsoft with ‘Cortana’] …it is clear that the most powerful technology companies are investing immense resources to make virtual intelligent assistants ubiquitous before the end of the decade. -Daniel Nadler, CEO of Kensho Developer of ‘Warren’ Financial Services Intelligent Assistant
Signal to Watch: Rise of Intelligent Assistants
Signals of Change: New Era of Service & Customer Support
Consumer-grade Natural Language Answer Engines & Assistants
*Finance Industry *API for Answer Engine
*White Label *Service Platform Enterprise-grade Products & Platforms
Assumption: Artificial Intelligence reshapes Knowledge Work By 2020, the 25% of WD support staff will use intelligent assistants to:
improve customer support support collaboration enhance decision-making manage workflows
By 2020, the 25% of web retail services will be based on natural language and use intelligent assistants
‘Online’ vs ‘Offline’ ‘Software-Guided’ or not
What is the new assumption for service work & web experiences?
Tabular Computing Calculate
Programmable Computing Tell machine what to do
Cognitive Computing Machine will learn what to do
Understanding Major Eras of Computing
True False
Implications of Intelligent Assistants WD Service support could be prompted with potential
answers during real-time phone conversations
Shops and customers could ‘ask’ questions rather than type in keyword search
Shop websites could ask people questions to learn more about their problem
2015 – 2025: Changes Around Us…
Empowering
Enthusiasts
Data-driven Innovations
Empowering Local Shops
Empowering Local Shops
Strategy Learn from other industries and movements who have redefined enthusiasts and support for local business
Strategy We All Work to Create Influential Customers
Storytelling Tools & Guides to Share Experiences
Strategy Test Radical Business Models: Crowd Funding
Local Shops Build Local Community of
Investors & Customers
Lowering Barriers to Co-ownership of Performance Vehicles
+ Expanding Access to Performance Fleets =
Strategy Local Shops Bridge Design-Maker & Performance Culture
Pushing Design Tools from Maker Community to Mainstream Auto Culture
Rethinking Co-Innovation & WD-based Fabrication
Private Industry: Rapid Prototypes for Nike: No Tooling or Molds
Source; Gizmodo
Accelerated Phase of Commercialization has begun…
Metals-based Additive Manufacturing
Source of Excitement (if not viable products)
Bridge Performance Market & Maker Communities
Retail Channels with Maker Spaces
Object Scanning Open 3D Specs Hackathons Culture: Designers
& Installers Pilot Radical
Business Models
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I want to become a Futurist “We need to be ahead of these trends! Sign me up!!”
Your Job: Socializing Ideas Start a Signals Team
(Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics)
Create Monthly or Quarterly
Programs to Share Insights
I am not convinced by this vision of the future “Not our future. Let’s get back to basics.”
Show how futuristic scenarios can be wrong
Challenge Key Assumptions
Rally Existing Stakeholders to Return to a Traditional Era of Performance Markets
Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency R
ead
ine
ss
Urgency
Not Urgent Urgent – Critical
Not Ready
Ready
Somewhat Ready
Important
Adaptive Marketing
Maker Culture
Data – Analytics
Graph Marketing
Social Media
I want to Encourage Others “Interesting subjects. I want to empower my team.”
Support an Entrepreneurial Culture within the Company
Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships
Establish Programs for Risk-taking: Failfaire & Grand Challenges
Thank you!
Garry Golden
garrygolden@gmail.com
347-463-7412
Copy of Presentation:
www.garrygolden.com/Arizona2014
Questions, Comments, Challenges…
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