Foresight 101 Automotive Supply hannels Future: Where · PDF fileForesight 101 Automotive Supply hannels Future: ... Commit to Learning & Innovating ... the 25% of web retail services

Foresight 101

Automotive Supply Channel’s Future: Where are we headed?

Presented by: Garry Golden

Presentation Copy: www.garrygolden.com/Arizona2014

Taking Action Drivers of Change Warm up & Foresight 101

Next

ten years Last

ten years

More of Less Change ahead?

In the News

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A Goodyear Tire dealership in San Francisco now requires Google Glass devices to be worn by mechanics during tire installation and vehicle system repair. The shop provides customers and insurance agents with a video copy of the installation.

True False

How do we prepare talent culture for the age of wearable technologies that might bring more transparency, accountability and assistance?

Applications: Transparency & Support

Across the Supply Chain (e.g. Inventory; Check-in; Installation)

Unique Content for Technicians & Customers

The Manufacturing Institute is creating a National Manufacturing Badge System for skills and achievements needed to be successful in today’s Advanced Manufacturing workplace

True False

How do we apply micro-credentials to training talent and empowering enthusiasts?

The Cumulating Career Path

Micro-credentials & the Future of Learning & Work

Badges are Not What They Appear…

Micro-Credentials as a Platform for Training & Learning Pathways

Hankook has invested in Dijain a retail startup founded by a 28-year old South Korean. The store provides customers with kits and training on 3D design, manufacturing and then supports installation.

True False

Building Enthusiasts in an Age of Design-focused Prosumers

Impact of Design & Maker Culture on Manufacturers, Distributors & Retails?

What is a Futurist?

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Every day I make an effort to move toward what I do not understand.

- Cellist, Yo-Yo Ma

How do you think about the Future of an industry or regional economy?

Continued Growth Decline / Collapse

Disciplined / Constrained Transformed

Foresight 101: Four Future Scenarios

?

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• Risk: Growing Gap in Changes Inbound changes (Global) vs Outbound changes (Personal)

• Opportunity: Foundation = Movement not an Industry Movements can thrive in an age of digital and fragmented marketplaces

• Imperative: Commit to Learning & Innovating Focus on understanding the why; Find people and partners to show you the how

2015 – 2025: Changes Around Us…

Empowering

Enthusiasts

Data-driven Innovations

Empowering Local Shops

Empowered Enthusiasts… Research Influence & Inspiration Niche Markets / Communities Designing & Making Things Shaping Local Marketplaces

Demographic Transitions: 2015 - 2025

Aging Boomers Millennials Grow up

Aging Baby Boomers: Transforming the Economy (Again)

By 2015

Regional Dynamics By 2030

60%

consumer

spending

40%

wealth 65+ pop.

71MM

Spending Population

Wellness Focus

Baby Boomer Strategies:

Mobility = Youthful Feeling

Performance Bridge to Safety & Comfort

Ownership or Access ?

Shops as Social Places

Tools for Storytelling

Millennials (Gen Y)

Seamless & On-Demand

Involve Me Data Driven, Measure More

Millennials (Gen Y)

Seamless & On-Demand

• Apps & Membership eliminate perception of transaction

• I share data because I want you to anticipate my needs

Millennials (Gen Y)

Involve Me: Crowd Projects

Millennials (Gen Y)

Involve me: Sharing Economy (Performance + Fleets?)

Source: Fearless Dollar

Millennials (Gen Y)

Data Driven, Measure More

• My Phone is a Vehicle Accessory & Control Hub

• Show me the data

Millennial Strategies: • Membership Models

• Crowd Projects

• Connected Cars + Performance

= Speed & Flow • Branding for

Urban On-demand Fleets


Empowering

Enthusiasts



Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation

Increase in non-traditional forms of data

Use analytics to influence customer behavior

Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models)

Use of ‘Intelligent Assistants’ & Natural Language

Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data

Business challenges:

• Increased costs for analytics

• Insights to drive customer engagement

Image & Video Analytics

Scanning Social Media… • Find potential enthusiasts

• Identify brands and models

• See context of

Performance Experiences

Innovations Beyond 2015

Connected Device (Internet of Things) Analytics

What % of performance products will be ‘connected’?

How might connected parts transform the supply chain?

Product Integration Strategy: Place Many Bets, Watch Many Indicators of Change

Pendulums will swing: Empowered OEMs & Mfg

for Mission Critical Empowered Suppliers for

Behavior Focused Apps Non-Auto Industry Dynamics: Internet of Things (IoT) &

Data Privacy Standards






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etit

ive

Ad

van

tage

Complexity of Data & Relationship Management

Descriptive What happened?

Predictive What might happen?

Prescriptive What should happen?

Guiding Customer Behavior Evolution of Supply Chain & Prescriptive Analytics

Co

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ive

Ad

van

tage

Complexity of Data & Relationship Management

Descriptive Insight Transaction History This is last month’s statement

Predictive Insight Budget & Spending Forecast This is what we think you will spend this week

Prescriptive Insight

Personal Spending Goals This is your budget for dinner

Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior

Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior

Consider Customer Life Goals with Money Management

+

What is the value of guiding customer behavior?

Implications for Predictive & Prescription Analytics?

WD Network Services Services to Mfg & Shops based on Market & Sentiment Analysis

Shop Tools & Services

Customers Look to Shops for Guidance; Technicians as Coaches






Trend: Data Models for Big Data Innovation

Link Graph

Social Graph

Interest Graph

Health Graph

Learning Graph

???

Graph Database Model for Connected Data

Transportation Graph ???

Entity (Node)

Relationship

Graph Database Model for Recommendation Systems

Entity (Node)

Relationship

Ability to ask new questions to expand business:

Who owns x-vehicle? Who is 50+?

Who purchased or installed x-part? Who Tweeted about it?

Show me people like them – that have not yet purchased x-part?

Graph Database Model for Customer Segmentation

New Sources of Data Inputs

Graph Database Model for Path-finding & Logistics

Hyper Efficient Logistics as a Service

Graph Example: Location & Path-finding for Delivery

Bought startup:

Venture Capital is Betting Big on Graph-driven Supply Chains






Popular Images of the Intelligent Assistant

If you look at what Apple is doing with 'Siri,' IBM is doing with 'Watson,' Google is doing with Now, [Microsoft with ‘Cortana’] …it is clear that the most powerful technology companies are investing immense resources to make virtual intelligent assistants ubiquitous before the end of the decade. -Daniel Nadler, CEO of Kensho Developer of ‘Warren’ Financial Services Intelligent Assistant

Signal to Watch: Rise of Intelligent Assistants

Signals of Change: New Era of Service & Customer Support

Consumer-grade Natural Language Answer Engines & Assistants

*Finance Industry *API for Answer Engine

*White Label *Service Platform Enterprise-grade Products & Platforms

Assumption: Artificial Intelligence reshapes Knowledge Work By 2020, the 25% of WD support staff will use intelligent assistants to:

improve customer support support collaboration enhance decision-making manage workflows

By 2020, the 25% of web retail services will be based on natural language and use intelligent assistants

‘Online’ vs ‘Offline’ ‘Software-Guided’ or not

What is the new assumption for service work & web experiences?

Tabular Computing Calculate

Programmable Computing Tell machine what to do

Cognitive Computing Machine will learn what to do

Understanding Major Eras of Computing

True False

Implications of Intelligent Assistants WD Service support could be prompted with potential

answers during real-time phone conversations

Shops and customers could ‘ask’ questions rather than type in keyword search

Shop websites could ask people questions to learn more about their problem


Empowering

Enthusiasts




Strategy Learn from other industries and movements who have redefined enthusiasts and support for local business

Strategy We All Work to Create Influential Customers

Storytelling Tools & Guides to Share Experiences

Strategy Test Radical Business Models: Crowd Funding

Local Shops Build Local Community of

Investors & Customers

Lowering Barriers to Co-ownership of Performance Vehicles

+ Expanding Access to Performance Fleets =

Strategy Local Shops Bridge Design-Maker & Performance Culture

Pushing Design Tools from Maker Community to Mainstream Auto Culture

Rethinking Co-Innovation & WD-based Fabrication

Private Industry: Rapid Prototypes for Nike: No Tooling or Molds

Source; Gizmodo

Accelerated Phase of Commercialization has begun…

Metals-based Additive Manufacturing

Source of Excitement (if not viable products)

Bridge Performance Market & Maker Communities

Retail Channels with Maker Spaces

Object Scanning Open 3D Specs Hackathons Culture: Designers

& Installers Pilot Radical

Business Models

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I want to become a Futurist “We need to be ahead of these trends! Sign me up!!”

Your Job: Socializing Ideas Start a Signals Team

(Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics)

Create Monthly or Quarterly

Programs to Share Insights

I am not convinced by this vision of the future “Not our future. Let’s get back to basics.”

Show how futuristic scenarios can be wrong

Challenge Key Assumptions

Rally Existing Stakeholders to Return to a Traditional Era of Performance Markets

Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency R

ead

ine

ss

Urgency

Not Urgent Urgent – Critical

Not Ready

Ready

Somewhat Ready

Important

Adaptive Marketing

Maker Culture

Data – Analytics

Graph Marketing

Social Media

I want to Encourage Others “Interesting subjects. I want to empower my team.”

Support an Entrepreneurial Culture within the Company

Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships

Establish Programs for Risk-taking: Failfaire & Grand Challenges

Thank you!

Garry Golden

[email protected]

347-463-7412

Copy of Presentation:

www.garrygolden.com/Arizona2014

Questions, Comments, Challenges…

Documents

Foresight 101 Automotive Supply hannels Future: Where · PDF fileForesight 101 Automotive Supply hannels Future: ... Commit to Learning & Innovating ... the 25% of web retail services