Forecasting - School Nutrition · © COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS...

ForecastingNo More Guessing Games: Using Data to Get Exactly What You Need

Barry Sackin, SNS

Facilitator

Kristen BeallerSchool Nutrition Director

Davidson County Schools

Lexington, NC

• Board Chair for the North Carolina Procurement Alliance (NCPA) 2017-18• Served 3 years on NCPA Board• Member of NCPA since 2009

• Medium size district:• 36 School Sites

• 31 Kitchens• 5 Transport Sites• Approx. 19,000 students

• 43.86% Free & Reduced• No CEP sites

Affiliation or Financial Disclosure

• Kristen Bealler

⎻ NCDPI School Nutrition

The Procurement Process

Your Cycle Menu drives your bid!

• Decide what new products will be placed on the bid and what items need to be taken off

• Compare it to last years menu and look for product trends• Will I be using an item more or less frequently? • Make adjustments (+/-) for changes in the menu

• Look at participation trends• What was my average daily participation with this menu pairing?• Will district enrollment increase or decrease? How will this effect daily

participation?

• Request usage report from Distributor for first half of the school year (Excel sheet so you can sort by brand or item)• Use software Bid Estimation Report for the same time frame for

comparison

• Communication in any bid changes must take place with your Distributor as soon as you are aware• This is a two way street so make sure you set your expectations up front

with your Distributor and be the example to follow!

• Pay attention to case size and quantities as they can change from year to year

• Track your substitutions• Substitutions not only wreak havoc on special diets but also they effect

your forecasting numbers for the following bid year!

MealsPlus Bid Estimation Report

Sysco Charlotte, LLC. Usage Report

Procurement Timeline

Procurement Checklist

Standard Operational Procedures for Procuring Food/Supplies

JANUARYDevelop cycle menus for the next school year

Determine usages for the next school year based off of the new cycle menu

Request usage report from distributor and amend usages as necessary

FEBRUARYComplete Mid-Year price changes from Distributor received February 1

Complete usages for the next school year based off of the new cycle menu

Review NC-ECOS catalog for commodities and commodity processing

Review DTM Bid

Determine source of commodities (brown box: delivered and held at distributor,NOI, FFS, or commercial)

Complete review of DTM Bid

Determine source of commodities (brown box: delivered and held atdistributor, NOI, FFS, or commercial)

Complete commodity calculators

Finalize & Submit NC-ECOS commodity purchases and planning

Submit commodity calculators to brokers

APRILEnter usages on bid spreadsheets and send to distributors

Enter commodity specifications on bid spreadsheets and send to

distributorsMAY

Check for any products distributor is not stocking (NS) or list as specialorder and adjust bid usage; if needed

Review sources and usage on bid spreadsheets and submit any changes to

distributors

JUNEEnter new product information in to the inventory system

Enter new product nutritional information in to the menus system

Managers enter orders for the beginning of next school year

Review end of year commodity balances, transfer unusable balances; list

unused products on Bob’s ListJULY

Complete new product information in the inventory system

Complete new product nutritional information in the menus system

AUGUST

Place initial order with distributors

Review distributor invoices for commercial, NOI, and FFS pricing for

accuracy and handle any discrepancies

SEPTEMBERComplete review of distributor invoices for commercial, NOI, and FFSpricing for accuracy and handle any discrepancies

OCTOBER

NOVEMBERAttend March Across the Carolinas USDA Donated & NCPA New ProductsFoods Show

DECEMBER

ONGOINGCommunicate any product/bid changes to distributors

Communicate any menu/usage changes to distributors

Enter/Verify USDA inventory upon receipt (K-12 Foodservice & ProcessorLink)

Monitor commodity account balances and report any changes to

brokers/distributors

ONGOINGReview FFS delivery schedules and communicate any changes tobrokers/distributorsReview 209 Report and communicate with NCDA for any changes, delays, andcancellations

Enter changes from distributor as they are received (code changes or price

changes)

North Carolina Procurement Alliance

(NCPA)

• Founded in 2008 as a pilot study

• Board of Directors consisting of 14 members (7 zones)

• 103 School District Members (piloting 4 RCCI’s)⎻ 2,051 Schools

⎻ ADM: 1,230,695

• 12 Distributor Houses Awarded 2016-17

• Over $156,500,000 in food purchases in 2016-17

NCPA Facts & Figures

• Two (2) bid documents completed on behalf of the membership⎻ Direct to Manufacturer (DTM)

• Issued by the NCPA

• Comprises 80% of the foods used by members

⎻ Invitation for Bid (IFB)

• Issued by each individual school district

• Groceries, Beverages, Supplies, & Produce

NCPA Bids

NCPA Official Bid Document

Today, Tomorrow, and BeyondPittsburgh Public Schools’ Forecasting Evolution

Malik HamiltonPurchasing SupervisorPittsburgh

⎻ Schwan’s Kitchen Circle

⎻ Pittsburgh Regional Food Service Directors

- Campus Cafe(9)

- High School (6-12; 9-12)

- Cooking

- Direct Delivery

Today…

- Site Kitchen

- Middle School (K-8, 6-8)

- Vendor (16)

- Warehouse (9)

- Cooking

- Central Kitchen (20)

- Elementary(K-5)

- Pre-packs

- Miscellaneous

- ASSP

- CACFP

- Outside Contracts

• Forecasting

⎻ Summer Needs

⎻ School Year Usage

⎻ Special Events (Holidays, Themes, District Traditions)

⎻ Commodity Diversion

⎻ Farm to School

The Year Round Problem

• ADP –

⎻ Not Enough Inventory

⎻ Averages Can be Problematic

⎻ Menu Item / Participation

• Enrollment –

⎻ Too Much Inventory

⎻ Menu Item / Participation

⎻ Attendance Factor

⎻ Entire District vs Site-by-Site

Today…

Forecasting using Enrollment vs ADP

Warehouse & Production

- Detailed Production Records

- Production Records

Purchaser

- Distributor

Today…

=ROUNDUP(IFERROR(((G2*900)+(H2*1100)+(I2*500))*0.75," "),0)

=IFERROR(ROUNDUP(J2/F2,0)," ")

=IFERROR(K2*5," ")

• 6 weeks advanced ordering Warehouse / Production

⎻ From Distributor

• 1 week advanced ordering Sites

• 6 weeks advanced planning Purchaser to Distributor

⎻ Back to School Forecasting and Ordering June

⎻ Reverse Forecasting January - June

⎻ Goal to decrease OOS FOY/EOY 35%

Today…

Tomorrow & Beyond

DEEP DATA ANALYSIS

• FORECASTING CATEGORIES

• WHOLISTIC EVALUATIONS

• Commodity vs. Commercial

• Wednesday vs. Friday

• Monday Holiday Effecthttps://www.thedailybeast.com/data-science-is-booming-dont-get-left-behind

Forecasting the FutureHow Dallas ISD is managing the inventory of tomorrow

Speaker

Michael RosenbergerExecutive Director

Food and Child Nutrition ServicesDallas Independent School District

• Michael Rosenberger

⎻ Urban School Food Alliance

201620152014

Roadmap

Request for Proposal (RFP)

yielded a vendor that provided

five, fully integrated systems.

• Point-of-sale

• Back-of-the-house: menu

planning, inventory, production,

records, etc.

• Student accounts

• Online meals application

• Payment processing

Evaluated current information systems and determined they no longer met the needs of the department.

• Data managed locally rather than centrally

• Front-of-the-house and back-of-the-house systems not integrated

• Processes often required manual input or corrections

New systems were fully

implemented in 15 months.

• Training central and campus

• Six full-time vendor employees

to support transition

• Physical inventory count

Bid Awards

Digitizing bid awards allows

the menu and procurement

teams to quickly obtain

product specifications or

vendor information.

Procurement Communication Board

The Procurement Communication Board (PCB) houses

all product inventory in a central location and manages

the weekly orders and deliveries.

Establishing Par Levels

Calculated Periodic

Automatic

Replenishment (PAR)

levels ensure that the

warehouse is always

sufficiently stocked

with to fulfill school

orders.

PO Tracking

The PO Tracking function documents ongoing and past purchase orders.

Product shipment or packaging specifications are pulled from the Bid

Award database.

Forecasting Analytics

Prototype integrates enrollment, participation, item popularity, and

remaining service schedule to calculate the required order each period.

• This session provides one (1) CEU

• Key Area 2: Operations 2400

Professional Standards Code

CONTINUING

EDUCATION

CREDITS

Forecasting - School Nutrition · © COPYRIGHT 2018 SCHOOL NUTRITION ASSOCIATION | #ANC18 | LAS...

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