Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil · 2019. 11. 19. · Coffee in Brazil...

Forecast system for coffee rustrational management in Brazil

MSc. Fernando Hinnah – ESALQ - BRASIL

• Coffee inBrazil

• Coffee rust inBrazil

• Forecast systems:why to use?

• Development ofacoffee rust forecast system

• Evaluating coffee rust forecast

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Presentation Outline

Coffee inBrazil• Grown since 1727• 1.5million haarabica coffee• 0.5million harobustacoffee

• Major producer:• MinasGerais• 586thousand km2

• 1.1million ha

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Coffee inBrazil• Grown mainly under fullsun• Current trends:

• Higher plant population• Moremachinery• Gourmetcoffees• Mountainous areas

• Coffee rust• First occurrence:1970• Chemical control• Usually 3calendarsprays(Dec,Feb,Apr)

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Agrifolha

Forecast system• Must be:

• simple• not expensive• trustable• reliable

• Applicable inall conditions (regions/countries/shaded);• Require aminimumweather data;

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

http://www.genovese.com.au/author/genovese/ http://www.donevelio.com/blogs/

Reuters

Forecast system:why to use?Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Reuters

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Forecast system developmentForecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Rust progress dataWheather dataacquisition

Epidemiologicalanalysis

Wheather dataconsistency

Apparentinfectionrate(r)

Correlation matrix

Most important wheather variables

RUSTFORECASTSYSTEM

• Forecastinghasbecomeamanagement system tool

• Forecastingallows to schedule fungicide sprays

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

RUSTFORECASTSYSTEM

Evaluatedwithindependentdisease data

Develop achemical controlmanagement

system

Fieldtrials forvalidation

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

ForecastsystemevaluationLogistic GompertzLinear

Real Incidence (%)

Pred

icte

dIn

cide

nce

(%)

Pred

icte

dIn

cide

nce

(%)Variables

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Forecastsystemevaluation

Pred

icte

dIn

cide

nce(

%)

Variables

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

ForecastsystemevaluationPr

edic

ted

Inci

denc

e(%

)

Pred

icte

dIn

cide

nce(

%)

Variables

Fieldvalidation

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

Fieldvalidation

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah

• Inthese experiments,we tested:• Nocontrol• Calendar-based control• Different thresholds

• Trying to have better controlduring allthe growing season

Thanks!Gracias!Obrigado!

FernandoHinnahfhinnah@usp.br

www.leb.esalq.usp.br/agmfacil+5519999924432

Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah