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Forecast system for coffee rustrational management in Brazil
MSc. Fernando Hinnah – ESALQ - BRASIL
• Coffee inBrazil
• Coffee rust inBrazil
• Forecast systems:why to use?
• Development ofacoffee rust forecast system
• Evaluating coffee rust forecast
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Presentation Outline
Coffee inBrazil• Grown since 1727• 1.5million haarabica coffee• 0.5million harobustacoffee
• Major producer:• MinasGerais• 586thousand km2
• 1.1million ha
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Coffee inBrazil• Grown mainly under fullsun• Current trends:
• Higher plant population• Moremachinery• Gourmetcoffees• Mountainous areas
• Coffee rust• First occurrence:1970• Chemical control• Usually 3calendarsprays(Dec,Feb,Apr)
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Agrifolha
Forecast system• Must be:
• simple• not expensive• trustable• reliable
• Applicable inall conditions (regions/countries/shaded);• Require aminimumweather data;
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
http://www.genovese.com.au/author/genovese/ http://www.donevelio.com/blogs/
Reuters
Forecast system:why to use?Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Reuters
X
Forecast system developmentForecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Rust progress dataWheather dataacquisition
Epidemiologicalanalysis
Wheather dataconsistency
Apparentinfectionrate(r)
Correlation matrix
Most important wheather variables
RUSTFORECASTSYSTEM
• Forecastinghasbecomeamanagement system tool
• Forecastingallows to schedule fungicide sprays
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
RUSTFORECASTSYSTEM
Evaluatedwithindependentdisease data
Develop achemical controlmanagement
system
Fieldtrials forvalidation
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
ForecastsystemevaluationLogistic GompertzLinear
Real Incidence (%)
Pred
icte
dIn
cide
nce
(%)
Pred
icte
dIn
cide
nce
(%)Variables
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Forecastsystemevaluation
Pred
icte
dIn
cide
nce(
%)
Variables
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
ForecastsystemevaluationPr
edic
ted
Inci
denc
e(%
)
Pred
icte
dIn
cide
nce(
%)
Variables
Fieldvalidation
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
Fieldvalidation
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
• Inthese experiments,we tested:• Nocontrol• Calendar-based control• Different thresholds
• Trying to have better controlduring allthe growing season
Thanks!Gracias!Obrigado!
www.leb.esalq.usp.br/agmfacil+5519999924432
Forecastsystemforcoffee rust rational management inBrazil – FernandoHinnah
