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FIVE INSIGHTS FROM ACROSS THE CLEAN HYDROGEN SECTOR
CONTACT:Robert Bloom – robert.bloom@delta-ee.com
Robert Castek – robert.castek@delta-ee.com
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Global Hydrogen Intelligence Service
How do we deliver these views and analyses?
2
We offer realistic, no-hype analyses and views on the whole of the developing
clean hydrogen value chain in Europe and across key global markets.
More
difficult
to find
data
Easier
to find
data
Micro trends Macro trends
Clean Hydrogen Projects Database
Reports
ViewpointsProject Profiles
Not in the public domain
Providing insight on clean hydrogen to the energy sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
4
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Blending: demonstrated at small scales in multiple markets
5
From our Database
Blending only a focus in some
countries
Active countries only at Step 2 of 5 in journey to
widespread blending
But regulatory frameworks must play catch-up for more progress
30%
5%
10%
20%
30%
2%
Non-public grids
Not yet operational
Least activity in
commercial or
industrial industry
Max 100s homes
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
6
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Customer
type
Market
today
Growth to
2030Main driver
ResidentialHydrogen blending in
gas networks.
CommercialDemonstration projects
to showcase solutions.
Industrial
Onsite generation for
industries requiring
high temperature heat.
Power Plants
System integration of
renewables, mainly
after 2030.
Hydrogen for power generation is not yet a priority
Long-term drivers for power
generation
7
From our Viewpoint
Engine, turbine and fuel cell
OEMs all demonstrating
hydrogen capability
The market today is focused on commercial & industrial trials
Low
10s
MW
10s
MW
Low
System integration,
including adding more
intermittent renewables.
Providing flexible clean
power upon demand
and building resiliency
into the system.
Ease to upgrade
existing generators to
decarbonise heat &
power. In some sectors
alternatives won’t be
available.
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
The industrial sector is the prime target for clean hydrogen
Typical prioritisation order
for hydrogen utilisation
8
Power
Heat
IndustryTransport
Multiple sectors
Green hydrogen demand by end-use sector, Europe, 2020 (t / yr)
Total = ~4,700 tonnes per year
Power Heat
Industry
Transport
Multiple sectors
Undefined
Green hydrogen demand by end-use sector, Europe, 2025 (t / yr)
Total = ~300,000 tonnes per year
From our database
Power generation and heat for
buildings are regarded by most
governments as secondary sectors
to use clean hydrogen this decade.
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
9
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Country strategies vary by value chain and utilisation focus
10
0
2
4
6
8
Industry Transport Electricity Heating
H2 Utilisation focus: sector priority ranking
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Utilisation
Storage & Distribution
Production
Value chain focus
High Priority Medium Priority Low Priority
CL, DE, ES, FR, PT, UK
NL
DE, FR, JP, NL, PT, UK
JP, NL
DE, JP, PT, UK CL, ES, FR
CL, ES
Countries where sector is
leading utilisation focus
Japan
Power generation using
imported low-cost clean
hydrogen to have a
central role
Chile
Aims to become world’s
cheapest exporter of
green hydrogen by 2030.
United Kingdom
Including a market for
blue hydrogen with a
developed market
mechanisms plan.
Netherlands
Storage & distribution
have a higher status in
H2 strategy, as NL is
aiming to be an EU hub.
From our Viewpoint
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
11
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
REFHYNE
Wesseling Refinery, Germany
◼ Major learnings on collaboration
◼ No contract for set amount of
green hydrogen provision
◼ Electrolyser gives a solution to a
site specific issue
Major players: Shell, ITM Power
Live green hydrogen projects are still building experience
12
H2Future
Voestalpine Steel plant, Austria
◼ Quasi-commercial operation for
ancillary services
◼ No contract for set amount of
green hydrogen provision
◼ Blends green hydrogen into steel
makers coke oven gas grid
Major players: VERBUND,
voestalpine, Siemens
From our project profiles
Some of the largest projects have no contracts for H2 provision
10
MW1,300
t/yr980
t/yr
6
MW
Electrolysis capacity
Max output Electrolysis capacity
Max output
16MW
Operational electrolysis capacity
Europe (MW)
Total = ~108 MW
From REFHYNE
and H2Future
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
13
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Delta-EE’s framework for green hydrogen projects Most projects and company activity is in the first two categories
Building experience Strategic positioning Scaling up
Pilots and demonstration projects
exploring technical feasibility of assets.
Projects focussing on securing long term,
large scale demand & building on incentivesProjects in planning now awaiting FID1
in 2022/23 based on policy environment Typ
ica
l s
ca
le o
f g
ree
n h
yd
rog
en
pro
du
cti
on
Early 2020s Mid 2020sEarly 2010s2030
Leading decision driver:
Pick the place
Early projects have been built to
secure public funding; regions
and countries where funding has
been available correlate with the
highest density of early projects.
Leading decision driver:
Pick the end-users
These projects will sell “competitive”
green hydrogen solutions to customers
based on predictions of possible
incentives and regulations. FIDs will be
rare until policy direction is determined.
These projects will solidify early
partnerships and establish value chains.
Leading decision drivers:
Pick the end users / place
With incentives in place,
business models will follow.
Securing large industrial
customers with long-term clean
hydrogen demand will be vital to
de-risk large scale investments.
Until cost of hydrogen distribution
reduces, the end-user will define
the location.
1000 MW+
100 MW
10 MW
0 MWYear
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What have we learned so far?
1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step
2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today
3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses
4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation
5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning
15
Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
What is our research plan for FY 2021/22?
16
In process
Future
Published
Key
TBD = to be decided
Event
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
EU
electrolyser
market
Hydrogen blending
into natural gas
networks
Clean hydrogen use in
distributed power
Clean hydrogen for
industrial
applications.
Decision making factors for
green hydrogen projects National hydrogen
strategy summaries
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
Contact
17
Website:www.delta-ee.com
Twitter:@delta_EE
Linkedin:Delta-EE
Phone:+44 (0)131 625 1011
Find out how we can help your business achieve its goals
Robert Bloom
Product Manager | Senior Analyst
Robert.bloom@delta-ee.com
+44 (0)1223 800 301
Robert Castek
Senior Analyst
Robert.castek@delta-ee.com
+44 (0)131 285 1776
Nerea Martinez
Analyst
Nerea.martinez@delta-ee.com
+44 (0)131 625 1006
Leon Gielen
Head of Business Development – Asia
Leon.gielen@delta-ee.com
+44 (0)131 378 8889
© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
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Where this report contains projections, these are based on assumptions that are subject to uncertainties and contingencies. Because of the
subjective judgements and inherent uncertainties of projections, and because events frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no
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