FIVE INSIGHTS FROM ACROSS THE CLEAN ... - delta-ee.com

FIVE INSIGHTS FROM ACROSS THE CLEAN HYDROGEN SECTOR

CONTACT:Robert Bloom – [email protected]

Robert Castek – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


© Delta Energy & Environment Ltd 2021GLOBAL HYDROGEN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE

Global Hydrogen Intelligence Service

How do we deliver these views and analyses?

2

We offer realistic, no-hype analyses and views on the whole of the developing

clean hydrogen value chain in Europe and across key global markets.

More

difficult

to find

data

Easier

to find

data

Micro trends Macro trends

Clean Hydrogen Projects Database

Reports

ViewpointsProject Profiles

Not in the public domain

Providing insight on clean hydrogen to the energy sector


What have we learned so far?

1. Blending: many small-scale demonstrations; regulatory frameworks are the next step

2. Power: OEMs are demonstrating possibilities; but not a priority application today

3. National strategies: a variety of value chain and end-use focuses

4. Project profiles: large green hydrogen projects today are focused on electrolyser operation

5. Green hydrogen: building experience and strategic positioning

4

Five insights from across the clean hydrogen sector


Blending: demonstrated at small scales in multiple markets

5

From our Database

Blending only a focus in some

countries

Active countries only at Step 2 of 5 in journey to

widespread blending

But regulatory frameworks must play catch-up for more progress

30%

5%

10%

20%

30%

2%

Non-public grids

Not yet operational

Least activity in

commercial or

industrial industry

Max 100s homes








6



Customer

type

Market

today

Growth to

2030Main driver

ResidentialHydrogen blending in

gas networks.

CommercialDemonstration projects

to showcase solutions.

Industrial

Onsite generation for

industries requiring

high temperature heat.

Power Plants

System integration of

renewables, mainly

after 2030.

Hydrogen for power generation is not yet a priority

Long-term drivers for power

generation

7

From our Viewpoint

Engine, turbine and fuel cell

OEMs all demonstrating

hydrogen capability

The market today is focused on commercial & industrial trials

Low

10s

MW

10s

MW

Low

System integration,

including adding more

intermittent renewables.

Providing flexible clean

power upon demand

and building resiliency

into the system.

Ease to upgrade

existing generators to

decarbonise heat &

power. In some sectors

alternatives won’t be

available.


The industrial sector is the prime target for clean hydrogen

Typical prioritisation order

for hydrogen utilisation

8

Power

Heat

IndustryTransport

Multiple sectors

Green hydrogen demand by end-use sector, Europe, 2020 (t / yr)

Total = ~4,700 tonnes per year

Power Heat

Industry

Transport

Multiple sectors

Undefined

Green hydrogen demand by end-use sector, Europe, 2025 (t / yr)

Total = ~300,000 tonnes per year

From our database

Power generation and heat for

buildings are regarded by most

governments as secondary sectors

to use clean hydrogen this decade.








9



Country strategies vary by value chain and utilisation focus

10

0

2

4

6

8

Industry Transport Electricity Heating

H2 Utilisation focus: sector priority ranking

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Utilisation

Storage & Distribution

Production

Value chain focus

High Priority Medium Priority Low Priority

CL, DE, ES, FR, PT, UK

NL

DE, FR, JP, NL, PT, UK

JP, NL

DE, JP, PT, UK CL, ES, FR

CL, ES

Countries where sector is

leading utilisation focus

Japan

Power generation using

imported low-cost clean

hydrogen to have a

central role

Chile

Aims to become world’s

cheapest exporter of

green hydrogen by 2030.

United Kingdom

Including a market for

blue hydrogen with a

developed market

mechanisms plan.

Netherlands

Storage & distribution

have a higher status in

H2 strategy, as NL is

aiming to be an EU hub.

From our Viewpoint








11



REFHYNE

Wesseling Refinery, Germany

◼ Major learnings on collaboration

◼ No contract for set amount of

green hydrogen provision

◼ Electrolyser gives a solution to a

site specific issue

Major players: Shell, ITM Power

Live green hydrogen projects are still building experience

12

H2Future

Voestalpine Steel plant, Austria

◼ Quasi-commercial operation for

ancillary services

◼ No contract for set amount of

green hydrogen provision

◼ Blends green hydrogen into steel

makers coke oven gas grid

Major players: VERBUND,

voestalpine, Siemens

From our project profiles

Some of the largest projects have no contracts for H2 provision

10

MW1,300

t/yr980

t/yr

6

MW

Electrolysis capacity

Max output Electrolysis capacity

Max output

16MW

Operational electrolysis capacity

Europe (MW)

Total = ~108 MW

From REFHYNE

and H2Future








13



Delta-EE’s framework for green hydrogen projects Most projects and company activity is in the first two categories

Building experience Strategic positioning Scaling up

Pilots and demonstration projects

exploring technical feasibility of assets.

Projects focussing on securing long term,

large scale demand & building on incentivesProjects in planning now awaiting FID1

in 2022/23 based on policy environment Typ

ica

l s

ca

le o

f g

ree

n h

yd

rog

en

pro

du

cti

on

Early 2020s Mid 2020sEarly 2010s2030

Leading decision driver:

Pick the place

Early projects have been built to

secure public funding; regions

and countries where funding has

been available correlate with the

highest density of early projects.

Leading decision driver:

Pick the end-users

These projects will sell “competitive”

green hydrogen solutions to customers

based on predictions of possible

incentives and regulations. FIDs will be

rare until policy direction is determined.

These projects will solidify early

partnerships and establish value chains.

Leading decision drivers:

Pick the end users / place

With incentives in place,

business models will follow.

Securing large industrial

customers with long-term clean

hydrogen demand will be vital to

de-risk large scale investments.

Until cost of hydrogen distribution

reduces, the end-user will define

the location.

1000 MW+

100 MW

10 MW

0 MWYear








15



What is our research plan for FY 2021/22?

16

In process

Future

Published

Key

TBD = to be decided

Event

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

EU

electrolyser

market

Hydrogen blending

into natural gas

networks

Clean hydrogen use in

distributed power

Clean hydrogen for

industrial

applications.

Decision making factors for

green hydrogen projects National hydrogen

strategy summaries


Contact

17

Website:www.delta-ee.com

Twitter:@delta_EE

Linkedin:Delta-EE

Phone:+44 (0)131 625 1011

Find out how we can help your business achieve its goals

Robert Bloom

Product Manager | Senior Analyst

[email protected]

+44 (0)1223 800 301

Robert Castek

Senior Analyst

[email protected]

+44 (0)131 285 1776

Nerea Martinez

Analyst

[email protected]

+44 (0)131 625 1006

Leon Gielen

Head of Business Development – Asia

[email protected]

+44 (0)131 378 8889

http://www.delta-ee.com/

http://www.twitter.com/delta_ee

https://www.linkedin.com/company/delta-ee/






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