First Quarter Earnings Release - Union Pacific...First Quarter Earnings Release April 23, 2009 Jim...

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First Quarter Earnings ReleaseApril 23, 2009

Jim Young, Chairman and CEO

2

First Quarter 2009 Results

• EPS = $0.72

– Down 15% versus 2008

• Record Operating Ratio

• Quarterly Safety “Bests”

• Excellent Service

• Strong Balance Sheet

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First Quarter Marketing & Sales ReviewApril 23, 2009

Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales

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Intermodal

Agricultural

Chemicals

Automotive

Industrial

Energy

TOTAL

First Quarter Recap

-21%

-27%

-20%

-10%

-48%

-12%

-23%

Volume Revenue

-20%

-29%

-15%

-6%

-55%

-13%

-22%

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AgriculturalFirst Quarter 2009 Quarterly Results

• $661M, -13%

• -12% Carloadings

• $3,116 ARC, -1%

Quarterly Drivers

• Lower Grain Demand

• Reduction in Soybean Crush and Ethanol Production

• Produce RailexpressGrowth

Whole Grains*

2008 2009

103.2

76.1

-26%

Food & Refrigerated*

2008 2009

41.7

41.4

-1%

*Volume in (000s) of carloads

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AutosFirst Quarter 2009

Quarterly Results

• $162M, -55%

• -48% Carloadings

• $1,675 ARC, -13%

Quarterly Drivers

• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Down 38% Year-Over-Year

• Extended Auto Shutdowns

Finished Vehicles*

2008

112.1

2009

51.4

-54%

2008

76.0

Vehicle Parts*

2009

45.6

-40%

*Volume in (000s) of carloads

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ChemicalsFirst Quarter 2009

Quarterly Results

• $513M, -15%

• -20% Carloadings

• $2,843 ARC, +6%

Quarterly Drivers

• Weak Demand Across Major Market Segments

Fertilizer*

2008

33.9

2009

22.4

-34%

2008

62.0

Liquid and Dry*

2009

44.5

-28%

*Volume in (000s) of carloads

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EnergyFirst Quarter 2009

Quarterly Results

• $807M, -6%

• -10% Carloadings

• $1,550 ARC, +5%

Quarterly Drivers

• SPRB Contract Losses

• Higher-than-Normal Coal Stockpiles

• CO/UT Production Issues

– Loaded 205 Fewer CO/UT Trains Year-Over-Year

SPRB Tonnage*

2008

45.0

2009

50.2-10%

2008

8.0

CO/UT Tonnage*

2009

10.1-21%

*Millions of Tons

First Quarter

Record

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2008

Steel*

2009

40.8

20.5

-50%

Industrial ProductsFirst Quarter 2009

Quarterly Results

• $546M, -29%

• -27% Carloadings

• $2,459 ARC, -3%

Quarterly Drivers

• Sharp Downturn in Steel Market

• Continued Softness in Housing & Construction

• High Inventories and Reduced Production of Paper

*Volume in (000s) of carloads

2008

Lumber & Building Materials*

2009

33.3

20.9

-37%

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IntermodalFirst Quarter 2009

International Volume*

2008

Domestic Volume*

2009

*Volume in (000s) of units

Quarterly Results

• $551M, -22%

• -23% Carloadings

• $897 ARC, +1%

Quarterly Drivers

• Weak Economy Impacts International and Domestic

• Lapping 2008 Contract Loss

• Service-Driven Product Offerings

510.6

355.9

285.0

258.7

-9%

-30%

2008 2009

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Inventories Working Against Rail Volume*

• Inventory Levels Down, But Not Enough

• Consumer Confidence at All-Time Lows

• Consumer Patterns Must Change to Break the Cycle

Average Retail Trade Inventories(First Quarter)

Average U.S. Car & Light Truck Inventories(January - April)

** January and February 2009

2006 2007 2008 2009**

$475.5

$489.2

$503.3

$475.0

1.48

1.47 1.47

1.54

Retail Inventory (Billions) Inventory/Sales Ratio

2006 2007 2008 2009

3.73.5

3.33.0

70 69 70

99

Inventory (Millions) Days Supply

* Inventory data taken from U.S. Census

Bureau and industry reports

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Leading Indicators

Southern Rock Loadings

Centerbeam Car Orders Gondola Car Orders

Boxcar Orders

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

Apr

Mar

Mar

Feb

Feb

Jan

Jan

Apr MarFebJan Apr

MarFebJan Apr

3,000

1,000

2,000

0

6,000

2,000

4,000

0

1,200

400

800

0

2,000

1,000

0

13

79

87 8788

Customer Satisfaction Index

Good

Q1 JanQ2 Q3 Q4 Q2Q1 Q3 Q4

2007 2008 2009

Feb Mar

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First Quarter Operating ReviewApril 23, 2009

Dennis Duffy, Executive VP – Operations

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2009 Performance RecordsFirst Quarter

AAR VelocityMPH

11.0

Freight Car UtilizationCycle Days

27.2

2006 2009

21.3

9.1

Good

Good

2006 2009

2007 2008

2007 2008 2007 2008

2006

29.0

2009

24.3

2007 2008

AAR Terminal DwellHours

Good

Service Delivery Index*

66.0

2006 2009

91.9

Good

* Includes early deliveries

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120

140

160

180

200

220

2004 2006 2008 2009 YTD

Volume Variability

NetworkCapacity

Demand

7-Day

Carloads

(000)

• Crews

– Low Mileage Strategy

– Cutback Engineers

– AWTS / Furloughs

• Locomotives & Railcars

– Lease Returns

– Storage / Retirements

– Foreign Balance

• Train & Yard Operation

– Overtime / Shifts / Starts

– Business Rules

– Network Redesign

Decre

asin

g V

olu

me In

cre

asin

g V

olu

me

•Fixed Plant

• Working Resources

Thruput

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Aligning Working Resources

• Furloughs

– 26% (~4,500) TE&Y Employees

– ~ 700 Mechanical, Engineering, and Clerical

• Road Locomotives

– 31% (~1,900) in Storage

• Freight Cars

– 31% (~66,000) Parked

GTMs (millions)

Road

Locomotives

Freight Cars-26%

-24%

-18%

-21%

-20%

Train Starts (000s)

TE&Y Employees

First Quarter Average Resource Reductions –

Current Status

~~

~~

~~

~~

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Network Productivity

• Network Re-Design

– Shift Workload to Most

Efficient Facilities

– Combine Auto and

Intermodal Train Networks

• Terminal Cost Control

– Remote Control

Locomotives

– Shift Eliminations

– Staffing Reductions

– Reduced Ramp Operations

14 Major

Network

Yards

30 Regional Yards

60 Local Yards

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2009 Operating Initiatives

• Continue “Zero

Tolerance” on Safety

• Volume Variability with

Excellent Service

• Capital Efficiency

• Well Positioned for

Upside Leverage

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First Quarter Financial ReviewApril 23, 2009

Rob Knight, CFO

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Income Statement SummaryFirst Quarter – In Millions

Operating Revenues

Freight Revenues $ 3,240 $ 4,059

Other Revenues 175 211

Total Operating Revenues $ 3,415 $ 4,270

Operating Expenses

Compensation and Benefits 1,070 1,132

Purchased Services & Materials 399 469

Fuel 386 957

Depreciation 345 340

Equipment & Other Rents 317 342

Other 226 242

Total Operating Expenses $ 2,743 $ 3,482

Operating Income $ 672 $ 788

2009 2008 %

(20)

(17)

(20)

(5)

(15)

(60)

1

(7)

(7)

(21)

(15)

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Freight Revenue Drivers

Q1 Q1

$1,738

-9%

$1,755

Q2 Q3 Q4

$1,835

$1,931$1,891

Average Revenue Per Car

2008 2009

• $3.2 B Freight Revenue

– 20% Decline on 21% Lower Carloadings

• Pricing Gains Consistent with Outlook

– +5 to 6% Average Core Price

• Reduced Fuel Surcharges Lowering Customer Freight Bills

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Expense Initiatives Drive ResultsFirst Quarter

$3,482

$3,078

$2,743

20092008

Reported

Fuel Price

Adjusted*

-12%

Operating Expenses In Millions

55% Variability

Revenue Carloads (000s)

20092008

2,335

1,847

-21%

* See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.

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Compensation & BenefitsFirst Quarter – In Millions

$1,132

2008 2009

$1,070

-5% • 8% Workforce Reduction

– Labor Productivity

– Lower Volume

• Wage & Benefit Inflation

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Purchased Services & MaterialsFirst Quarter – In Millions

$469

2008 2009

$399

-15%• Decreased Contract

Service Expense

• Reduced Crew Transportation & Lodging

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Fuel First Quarter

Average Fuel PricePer Gallon Consumed

Fuel ConsumptionGallons (in millions)

20092008

$2.84

$1.51

20092008

330

252

• 20% Decline in Gross Ton-Miles

• Improved Fuel Efficiency

– Fuel Consumption Rate Better By 5%

• Current Diesel Spot Price ~ $1.55 per gallon~~

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DepreciationFirst Quarter – In Millions

• Increased Capital Spending in 2008

• Lower Depreciation Rates Effective 1/1/09

$340

2008 2009

$345+1%

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Equipment and Other RentsFirst Quarter – In Millions

• Volume Savings

– Autos

– Intermodal

– Industrial Products

• Fewer Leased Assets

$342

2008 2009

$317

-7%

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OtherFirst Quarter – In Millions

• Decreased Freight & Property Damage Expense

• Lower Casualty Expenses

• Higher State & Local Taxes

• Increased Bad Debt Expense

$242

2008 2009

$226

-7%

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Operating Ratio ImprovementFirst Quarter (%)

2006 2007 2008 2009

83.7

81.3 81.580.3

• Lower Fuel Prices

• Price Increases

• Improved Productivity

• Volume Headwind

Average 7-Day Carloadings (000s)

187.2

145.5

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Full Income StatementFirst Quarter – In Millions (Except EPS)

Operating Revenues $ 3,415 $ 4,270

Operating Expenses 2,743 3,482

Operating Income $ 672 $ 788

Other Income – Net 23 25

Interest Expense (141) (126)

Income Before Income Taxes 554 687

Income Tax Expense (192) (244)

Net Income $ 362 $ 443

Diluted EPS $ 0.72 $ 0.85

2009 2008 %

(20)

(21)

(15)

(8)

12

(19)

(21)

(18)

(15)

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Debt & Liquidity*First Quarter – In Millions

* See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.

**Lease Adjusted Total Debt

Lease Adjusted Debt to Capital

• Retired $250M Debt on 2/15

• Issued $750M Debt on 2/20

• 2009 Capital Closer to $2.6B

– ~ $150 - $200M ReductionCash Balance

20092008

20092008

$827

$1,466

Total Debt**

$12,639$14,387

44.8% 47.9%

~~

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Looking Ahead

200,000

100,000

150,000

Apr 16

2009Feb

2009

Dec

2008

Oct

2008

7-Day Carloadings

Chinese

New Year

Weather-Related

SPRB

Christmas

Holiday

Easter

Holiday

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First Quarter Earnings ReleaseApril 23, 2009

Jim Young, Chairman and CEO

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The Year Ahead

• Uncertain Economic Outlook

• Additional Cost and Efficiency Initiatives

• Investing for the Future

• Safety Gains

• Customer Service

• Strong Value of Rail Underscores Need for Balanced Regulation

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Cautionary InformationThis presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of

historical fact, including specifically expectations regarding the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions

and future business volumes, future operating performance, competitiveness of our service and, its ability to reduce

costs. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information

or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and

its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s

beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical

facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not

necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved.

Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the

Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual

performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk

factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other

outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information

regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-

K for 2008, which was filed with the SEC on February 6, 2009. The Corporation updates information regarding risk

factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual

Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the

statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect

actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the

Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the

Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements.

References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the

Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.