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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
Dated: 22.09.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD 18.09.2020.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week,10 September to 16 September 2020, has been 7% higher
than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country,
against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 143% in South Peninsula
- Higher by 14% in East & North East India
- Lower by 83% in North West India,
- Lower by 6% in Central India,
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to16 September 2020, has been 7% higher
than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 28% in South Peninsula,
- Higher by 14% in Central India,
- Higher by 1% in East & North East India and
- Lower by 15% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 34% of total area
- Normal in 19 MET sub-divisions constituting 52% of total area, and
- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total
live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 17 September 2020 was145.80 BCM, which is:
- 100% of last year’s storage on the same day (17 September 2019) of 145.40 BCM.
- 116% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 125.30 BCM.
As per latest information, around 104.0% of the normal area under Kharif crops has been sown up
to 18.09.2020. Total area sown under Kharif reported at 1113.63 lakh hectares as compared to
1053.52 lakh hectares during the same period last year.
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has decreased from 4.32% in July 2020 to 4.07% in August 2020.
Status of change of WPI in August 2020 over July 2020 for some major items is as under.
- All Commodities: increased from -0.58% to 0.16%.
- Primary Articles: increased from 0.63% to 1.60%.
- Food Articles: declined from 4.08% to 3.84%.
- Non-food Articles: increased from -3.57% to -1.46%.
- Pluses: declined from 10.24% to 9.86%.
- Cereals: declined from 0.75% to -1.79%.
- Wheat: declined from 2.67% to -1.47%.
- Paddy: declined from 3.75% to 2.49%.
- Fruits and Vegetables: increased from 3.59% to 4.05%.
- Milk: declined from 4.61% to 4.25%.
All-India progressive procurement
As on 18 September, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.85
lakh MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.
As on 18 September, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 512.20
lakh MT compared to 439.75 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.
This year in ongoing marketing season, procured quantity of Wheat & Rice has reached
at All Time High level.
I. MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week
ending 16 September 2020
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (10 Sept.2020 to16 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in
16 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-division and in
01 sub-division received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution
is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 16 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13
met sub-divisions, normal in 19 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 04 sub-
divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (16.09.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 16.09.2020)
(in mm) Deviation (%)
Category (in mm) Deviation (%)
Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 5.1 29.9 -83 LD 484.0 566.2 -15 N
Central 40.8 43.3 -6 N 1040.0 912.8 14 N
South Peninsula 83.0 34.1 143 LE 822.2 643.9 28 E
East & North-East 83.0 72.9 14 N 1302.1 1287.9 1 N
Country as a whole 44.8 42.1 7 N 868.0 813.2 7 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and
All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 16 September 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with
rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
16 SEP
2015
14 SEP
2016
13 SEP
2017
19 SEP
2018
18 SEP
2019
16 SEP
2020
Large Excess Excess
Normal
Total
- 01
18
19
- 03
24
27
00 06
23
29
00 01
23
24
00 11
18
29
02 11
19
32
Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain
Total
17
- 00
00
17
09
- 00
00
09
07
00 -
00
07
12
00 -
00
12
07
00 -
00
07
04
00 -
00
04
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 16% (-) 5% (-) 6% (-) 10% 5% 7%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 17 - 23 Sept. 2020
A low pressure area is likely to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal around 20 September 2020.
Shear zone likely to persist over peninsular India in the middle levels.
Northwest & adjoining central India very likely to get deficient rainfall leading to rise in
maximum temperature over the region.
In association with likely formation of low pressure system on 20 September over North Bay of
Bengal, and consequent strengthening of lower level westerly winds along the West Coast,
Northeast & south Peninsular India (excluding Tamilnadu and South Interior Karnataka) very
likely to experience above normal rainfall activity during the week.
Rest of India to receive near normal rainfall during the week. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall
Forecast for week 17–23 Sept, 2020 is given in Annex-III).
Week-2: 24 - 30 Sept. 2020
Northwest India & interior peninsular India likely to get deficient rainfall.
Northeast India and west peninsular India likely to experience above normal rainfall activity
during the week.
Normal rainfall activity likely over the central Indian region.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 17 September 2020)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major
reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about
66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 145.80 BCM from the previous week’s
level of 142.53 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage
position of 145.40 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of
125.30 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of
Last Year
Storage as % of
10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 85 100 116
Last Week 83 102 118
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 85% on 17-09-2019, 75% on 17-09-2018, 58% on 17-
09-2017 and 66% on 17-09-2016.
Source: CWC
There were 117 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 6 reservoirs with storage
between 51% to 80%, 00 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 00 reservoir with
storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers
(UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 17.09.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130
Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642
Estimated Requirement during Sept. 2020 2479 809 337 901 392
Cumulative Receipt upto17.09.2020 14869 5443 1652 5109 2382
Cumulative Availability upto 17.09.2020 15482 6242 1884 6193 2512
Cumulative Sales upto 17.09.2020 15262 5575 1558 5633 2371
Closing Stock as on 17.09.2020 220 667 326 560 141
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds Position:
The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the
requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is
met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with
public sector agencies.
Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60%
again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of
soybean seed.
VI. Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table –6
Period /
Commodities Weight
Inflation (year on year)
August-2020 July-2020 August-2019
All Commodities 100 0.16 -0.58 1.17
Primary Articles 22.62 1.60 0.63 6.51
(a) Food Articles 15.26 3.84 4.08 7.80
Cereals 2.82 -1.79 0.75 8.48
Paddy 1.43 2.49 3.75 3.34
Wheat 1.03 -1.47 2.67 5.32
Pulses 0.64 9.86 10.24 16.36
Gram 0.26 -0.21 -1.10 6.93
Arhar 0.13 5.16 6.59 38.09
Moong 0.07 24.20 26.62 15.39
Masur 0.05 15.08 14.55 13.47
Urad 0.09 37.48 38.17 20.04
Vegetables 1.87 7.03 8.20 12.90
Potato 0.28 82.93 69.07 -22.26
Onion 0.16 -34.48 -25.56 33.01
Fruits 1.60 -0.25 -3.03 19.77
Milk 4.44 4.25 4.61 1.53
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 6.23 5.27 7.04
(b) Non-Food
Articles 4.12 -1.46 -3.57 4.68
Oilseeds 1.12 2.64 2.60 8.28
VII. All India Crop Situation Table –7
All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2020-21) as on 18.09.2020
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area
for whole
Kharif Season
(DES)
Area sown reported Absolute
Change over
2019 This Year 2020
% of Normal
for whole
season
Last Year
2019
Rice 397.29 406.97 102.4 378.71 28.26
Jowar 20.56 16.77 81.6 16.85 -0.08
Bajra 72.98 67.51 92.5 65.97 1.54
Maize 74.70 82.71 110.7 81.19 1.51
Total Coarse
Cereals 184.85 182.17 98.5 178.65 3.53
Total
Cereals 582.14 589.14 101.2 557.36 31.79
Tur 44.29 48.24 108.9 45.46 2.78
Urad 35.53 38.63 108.7 38.03 0.59
Moong 30.49 35.79 117.4 30.75 5.04
Kulthi 2.13 0.34 16.0 0.49 -0.15
Others 16.45 15.61 94.9 17.61 -1.99
Total Pulses 128.88 138.62 107.6 132.34 6.28
Total
Foodgrains 711.03 727.76 102.4 689.70 38.06
Groundnut 41.41 50.95 123.1 39.13 11.83
Soyabean 110.32 121.21 109.9 113.41 7.81
Sunflower 1.64 1.23 74.8 0.99 0.24
Sesamum 16.73 14.01 83.8 13.64 0.37
Nigerseed 2.23 1.63 73.1 1.84 -0.21
Castorseed 9.07 7.74 85.4 9.10 -1.36
Total
Oilseeds 181.39 196.78 108.48 178.10 18.68
Cotton 122.27 129.47 105.9 127.09 2.38
Sugarcane 48.46 52.65 108.7 51.78 0.87
Jute & Mesta 7.60 6.97 91.7 6.86 0.12
All- Crops 1070.75 1113.63 104.0 1053.52 60.11
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 18 September 2020
Table 8.1: Rice
(in lakh tonnes)
State Target in Marketing
season 2019-20
(October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on
18.09.2020
In Marketing season
2019-2020
In Marketing season
2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.92 48.09
Telangana 91.62 74.54 51.86
Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 39.13
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41
Kerala 4.50 4.82 4.65
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80
Odisha 43.50 47.28 43.83
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 13.44 21.46 12.67
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62
West Bengal 26.00 16.32 16.96
All-India 527.60 512.20 439.75
Table 8.2: Wheat
(in lakh tonnes)
State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21
(April– March)
Progressive Procurement as on
18.09.2020
In Marketing season
2020-2021
In Marketing season
2019-2020
Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03
Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05
Haryana 95.00 74.00 93.21
Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01
Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70
Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21
Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11
Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04
Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42
All-India 442.49 389.85 347.90
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 17 – 23 September, 2020 for 36 Met Sub-
Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 17 SEP 18 SEP 19 SEP 20 SEP 21 SEP 22 SEP 23 SEP
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● WS●TS WS●●TS WS●TS FWS FWS FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS●TS FWS SCT SCT FWS● WS●● WS●
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS●●TS FWS●TS SCTTS SCT FWS●●TS FWS●● WS●
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWSTS FWS●TS SCTTS SCT● FWS●TS FWS● FWS●
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●TS WS● SCT FWS WS●TS WS●● WS●●
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCTTS SCTTS SCT WS●TS WS●TS WS● WS●
7 ODISHA SCTTS SCTTS SCT●TS FWS●● WS●● FWS● FWS
8 JHARKHAND SCTTS SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS WS●TS WS● FWS
9 BIHAR FWS●TS SCT●TS ISOL ISOL SCTTS FWS FWS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT●TS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS SCT SCT
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
14 PUNJAB DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOLTS SCT●TS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT●TS SCT●TS SCTTS SCT●TS SCT● SCT● SCT●
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT● ISOL ISOL SCT● SCT● SCT● ISOL
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
23 KONKAN & GOA WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS● WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS●TS WS● FWS● WS● WS● WS● FWS
25 MARATHAWADA WS●TS WS● WS● FWS● FWS FWS● FWS
26 VIDARBHA FWS●TS FWSTS FWSTS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOLTS SCTTS SCT●TS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS● FWS●TS WS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS● SCT
29 TELANGANA WS●●TS WS●TS WS●TS WS●TS WS●TS FWS● SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA FWSTS SCTTS SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS SCT SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOLTS ISOL ISOLTS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS● FWS
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS●● FWS● FWS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS● SCT
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS SCT SCT
35 KERALA & MAHE WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS● FWS
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS
LEGENDS: WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
● Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●● Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm)
●●● Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$ TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 18 - 22 September 2020:
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