F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi

Dated: 22.09.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP

HELD 18.09.2020.

Summary

All-India level rainfall during the week,10 September to 16 September 2020, has been 7% higher

than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country,

against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 143% in South Peninsula

- Higher by 14% in East & North East India

- Lower by 83% in North West India,

- Lower by 6% in Central India,

Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to16 September 2020, has been 7% higher

than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 28% in South Peninsula,

- Higher by 14% in Central India,

- Higher by 1% in East & North East India and

- Lower by 15% in North West India,

Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 13 MET sub-divisions constituting 34% of total area

- Normal in 19 MET sub-divisions constituting 52% of total area, and

- Deficient/large deficient in 04 MET sub-divisions constituting 14% of total area.

Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total

live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 17 September 2020 was145.80 BCM, which is:

- 100% of last year’s storage on the same day (17 September 2019) of 145.40 BCM.

- 116% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 125.30 BCM.

As per latest information, around 104.0% of the normal area under Kharif crops has been sown up

to 18.09.2020. Total area sown under Kharif reported at 1113.63 lakh hectares as compared to

1053.52 lakh hectares during the same period last year.

Inflation (WPI Food Index) has decreased from 4.32% in July 2020 to 4.07% in August 2020.

Status of change of WPI in August 2020 over July 2020 for some major items is as under.

- All Commodities: increased from -0.58% to 0.16%.

- Primary Articles: increased from 0.63% to 1.60%.

- Food Articles: declined from 4.08% to 3.84%.

- Non-food Articles: increased from -3.57% to -1.46%.

- Pluses: declined from 10.24% to 9.86%.

- Cereals: declined from 0.75% to -1.79%.

- Wheat: declined from 2.67% to -1.47%.

- Paddy: declined from 3.75% to 2.49%.

- Fruits and Vegetables: increased from 3.59% to 4.05%.

- Milk: declined from 4.61% to 4.25%.

All-India progressive procurement

As on 18 September, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.85

lakh MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.

As on 18 September, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 512.20

lakh MT compared to 439.75 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.

This year in ongoing marketing season, procured quantity of Wheat & Rice has reached

at All Time High level.

I. MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week

ending 16 September 2020

1.1 Rainfall

Rainfall during the week (10 Sept.2020 to16 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in

16 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-division and in

01 sub-division received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution

is in Annex-I).

Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2020 to 16 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13

met sub-divisions, normal in 19 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 04 sub-

divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (16.09.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 16.09.2020)

(in mm) Deviation (%)

Category (in mm) Deviation (%)

Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 5.1 29.9 -83 LD 484.0 566.2 -15 N

Central 40.8 43.3 -6 N 1040.0 912.8 14 N

South Peninsula 83.0 34.1 143 LE 822.2 643.9 28 E

East & North-East 83.0 72.9 14 N 1302.1 1287.9 1 N

Country as a whole 44.8 42.1 7 N 868.0 813.2 7 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and

All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 16 September 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with

rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

16 SEP

2015

14 SEP

2016

13 SEP

2017

19 SEP

2018

18 SEP

2019

16 SEP

2020

Large Excess Excess

Normal

Total

- 01

18

19

- 03

24

27

00 06

23

29

00 01

23

24

00 11

18

29

02 11

19

32

Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain

Total

17

- 00

00

17

09

- 00

00

09

07

00 -

00

07

12

00 -

00

12

07

00 -

00

07

04

00 -

00

04

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 16% (-) 5% (-) 6% (-) 10% 5% 7%

Source: IMD

1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 17 - 23 Sept. 2020

A low pressure area is likely to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal around 20 September 2020.

Shear zone likely to persist over peninsular India in the middle levels.

Northwest & adjoining central India very likely to get deficient rainfall leading to rise in

maximum temperature over the region.

In association with likely formation of low pressure system on 20 September over North Bay of

Bengal, and consequent strengthening of lower level westerly winds along the West Coast,

Northeast & south Peninsular India (excluding Tamilnadu and South Interior Karnataka) very

likely to experience above normal rainfall activity during the week.

Rest of India to receive near normal rainfall during the week. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall

Forecast for week 17–23 Sept, 2020 is given in Annex-III).

Week-2: 24 - 30 Sept. 2020

Northwest India & interior peninsular India likely to get deficient rainfall.

Northeast India and west peninsular India likely to experience above normal rainfall activity

during the week.

Normal rainfall activity likely over the central Indian region.

II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 17 September 2020)

Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major

reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about

66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 145.80 BCM from the previous week’s

level of 142.53 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage

position of 145.40 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of

125.30 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of

Last Year

Storage as % of

10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 85 100 116

Last Week 83 102 118

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 85% on 17-09-2019, 75% on 17-09-2018, 58% on 17-

09-2017 and 66% on 17-09-2016.

Source: CWC

There were 117 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 6 reservoirs with storage

between 51% to 80%, 00 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50% and 00 reservoir with

storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers

(UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 17.09.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes)

Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130

Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642

Estimated Requirement during Sept. 2020 2479 809 337 901 392

Cumulative Receipt upto17.09.2020 14869 5443 1652 5109 2382

Cumulative Availability upto 17.09.2020 15482 6242 1884 6193 2512

Cumulative Sales upto 17.09.2020 15262 5575 1558 5633 2371

Closing Stock as on 17.09.2020 220 667 326 560 141

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

V. Seeds Position:

The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the

requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is

met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with

public sector agencies.

Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60%

again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of

soybean seed.

VI. Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table –6

Period /

Commodities Weight

Inflation (year on year)

August-2020 July-2020 August-2019

All Commodities 100 0.16 -0.58 1.17

Primary Articles 22.62 1.60 0.63 6.51

(a) Food Articles 15.26 3.84 4.08 7.80

Cereals 2.82 -1.79 0.75 8.48

Paddy 1.43 2.49 3.75 3.34

Wheat 1.03 -1.47 2.67 5.32

Pulses 0.64 9.86 10.24 16.36

Gram 0.26 -0.21 -1.10 6.93

Arhar 0.13 5.16 6.59 38.09

Moong 0.07 24.20 26.62 15.39

Masur 0.05 15.08 14.55 13.47

Urad 0.09 37.48 38.17 20.04

Vegetables 1.87 7.03 8.20 12.90

Potato 0.28 82.93 69.07 -22.26

Onion 0.16 -34.48 -25.56 33.01

Fruits 1.60 -0.25 -3.03 19.77

Milk 4.44 4.25 4.61 1.53

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 6.23 5.27 7.04

(b) Non-Food

Articles 4.12 -1.46 -3.57 4.68

Oilseeds 1.12 2.64 2.60 8.28

VII. All India Crop Situation Table –7

All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2020-21) as on 18.09.2020

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area

for whole

Kharif Season

(DES)

Area sown reported Absolute

Change over

2019 This Year 2020

% of Normal

for whole

season

Last Year

2019

Rice 397.29 406.97 102.4 378.71 28.26

Jowar 20.56 16.77 81.6 16.85 -0.08

Bajra 72.98 67.51 92.5 65.97 1.54

Maize 74.70 82.71 110.7 81.19 1.51

Total Coarse

Cereals 184.85 182.17 98.5 178.65 3.53

Total

Cereals 582.14 589.14 101.2 557.36 31.79

Tur 44.29 48.24 108.9 45.46 2.78

Urad 35.53 38.63 108.7 38.03 0.59

Moong 30.49 35.79 117.4 30.75 5.04

Kulthi 2.13 0.34 16.0 0.49 -0.15

Others 16.45 15.61 94.9 17.61 -1.99

Total Pulses 128.88 138.62 107.6 132.34 6.28

Total

Foodgrains 711.03 727.76 102.4 689.70 38.06

Groundnut 41.41 50.95 123.1 39.13 11.83

Soyabean 110.32 121.21 109.9 113.41 7.81

Sunflower 1.64 1.23 74.8 0.99 0.24

Sesamum 16.73 14.01 83.8 13.64 0.37

Nigerseed 2.23 1.63 73.1 1.84 -0.21

Castorseed 9.07 7.74 85.4 9.10 -1.36

Total

Oilseeds 181.39 196.78 108.48 178.10 18.68

Cotton 122.27 129.47 105.9 127.09 2.38

Sugarcane 48.46 52.65 108.7 51.78 0.87

Jute & Mesta 7.60 6.97 91.7 6.86 0.12

All- Crops 1070.75 1113.63 104.0 1053.52 60.11

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 18 September 2020

Table 8.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes)

State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20

(October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on

18.09.2020

In Marketing season

2019-2020

In Marketing season

2018-2019

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.92 48.09

Telangana 91.62 74.54 51.86

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 39.13

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41

Kerala 4.50 4.82 4.65

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80

Odisha 43.50 47.28 43.83

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 21.46 12.67

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 16.32 16.96

All-India 527.60 512.20 439.75

Table 8.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes)

State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21

(April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on

18.09.2020

In Marketing season

2020-2021

In Marketing season

2019-2020

Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03

Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05

Haryana 95.00 74.00 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70

Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21

Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42

All-India 442.49 389.85 347.90

Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 17 – 23 September, 2020 for 36 Met Sub-

Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 17 SEP 18 SEP 19 SEP 20 SEP 21 SEP 22 SEP 23 SEP

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● WS●TS WS●●TS WS●TS FWS FWS FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS●TS FWS SCT SCT FWS● WS●● WS●

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS●●TS FWS●TS SCTTS SCT FWS●●TS FWS●● WS●

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWSTS FWS●TS SCTTS SCT● FWS●TS FWS● FWS●

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS●TS WS● SCT FWS WS●TS WS●● WS●●

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCTTS SCTTS SCT WS●TS WS●TS WS● WS●

7 ODISHA SCTTS SCTTS SCT●TS FWS●● WS●● FWS● FWS

8 JHARKHAND SCTTS SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS WS●TS WS● FWS

9 BIHAR FWS●TS SCT●TS ISOL ISOL SCTTS FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT●TS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS SCT SCT

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

14 PUNJAB DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL

16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY

18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOLTS SCT●TS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT●TS SCT●TS SCTTS SCT●TS SCT● SCT● SCT●

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT● ISOL ISOL SCT● SCT● SCT● ISOL

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS● WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS●TS WS● FWS● WS● WS● WS● FWS

25 MARATHAWADA WS●TS WS● WS● FWS● FWS FWS● FWS

26 VIDARBHA FWS●TS FWSTS FWSTS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOLTS SCTTS SCT●TS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS● FWS●TS WS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS● SCT

29 TELANGANA WS●●TS WS●TS WS●TS WS●TS WS●TS FWS● SCT

30 RAYALASEEMA FWSTS SCTTS SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS SCT SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOLTS ISOL ISOLTS SCTTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS● FWS

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS●● FWS● FWS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS FWS● SCT

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS●TS WS●●TS WS●●TS SCT SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●● WS● FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

LEGENDS: WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

● Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●● Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm)

●●● Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

$ TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 18 - 22 September 2020: