View
26
Download
0
Category
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Evaluation of the Requirements of the Forecasters. COST 722, Phase I, WGii Urs Sutter MeteoSwiss. Outline. General Overview Highlights of the Answers Some Analysis. Question 1: Forecaster Services. Question 2: Observations (1). Question 2: Observations (2). Question 2: Observations (3). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Evaluation of theEvaluation of the
Requirements of the Requirements of the ForecastersForecasters
COST 722, Phase I, WGiiCOST 722, Phase I, WGii
Urs SutterUrs Sutter
MeteoSwissMeteoSwiss
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
OutlineOutline
1.1. General OverviewGeneral Overview
2.2. Highlights of the AnswersHighlights of the Answers
3.3. Some AnalysisSome Analysis
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 1: Forecaster ServicesQuestion 1: Forecaster Services
3326
61
86
0102030405060708090
100
Aviation Marine Road Phone etc.
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (1)Question 2: Observations (1)
10
0 0 0
25
11 148
85
13
40 1
23
12
30
14
94
45
21
0102030405060708090
100
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
SYNOPAutoSYNOPMETARAUTOMETAR
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (2)Question 2: Observations (2)
28
29
4
31
13 14
3
82
14
1 3 2
1721
37
10
5450
5
0102030405060708090
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
AWSAuto VIS meas.Upper Air SoundingRoad Weather StationsWindprofilerMast Measurements
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (3)Question 2: Observations (3)
2320
3 3
19
30 0
63
32
18
04
11
64
104
12
36
5
1310 12
43
81
10
54
36
27
0102030405060708090
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
Weather RadarMETEOSATNOAACloud RadarVideo/Web CAMMast Measurements
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (4)Question 2: Observations (4)
6
30
55
15
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
Radiation Balance
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 3: Very Shortrange Question 3: Very Shortrange FCST SystemFCST System
70
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Yes No
YesNo
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 4Question 4Where are OBS?Where are OBS?
4
11
4
1
7
1
25
1
1012
1012
0
28
5
2
22
8
33
10
3
0
29
2525 25
8
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Workstation Internet Intranet Elsewhere
SYNOPMETARAWSUpper Air SoundingWeather radarMETEOSATNOAAVideo/Web
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.1Question 5.1How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
32
39
18
2
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.2Question 5.2Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
10883
177
98
361
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rank points
Update too slowRrepresentation poorInformation dispersedtoo few observationsall data not shown
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.3 (1)Question 5.3 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?
37
2932
16 16
10
42
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SYNOP METAR TEMP SAT (i.e.NOAA)
AWS Visibility Ceilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.3 (2) Question 5.3 (2) How often ?How often ?
15
4
9 9
5
11
46
37
1
5
11 10
1
4 5 43
0 1
4 43
02 1
8
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
more than1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AWSVisibilityCeilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.4 (1)Question 5.4 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?
1816
15 1513
11
19
02468
101214161820
Visib
ility
Profil
er (W
ind-
/Tem
p.-)
Web
)CAM
s
SAT (i.e
. NOAA/M
SG)
Ceilo
met
erAW
S
Cloud
radar
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.4 (2) Question 5.4 (2) How often ?How often ?
1 1
8
9
2
3
7
4
3
1 1
2
9
1
6
7
5
3
4
1 1
5 5
3
2 2
7
4
0123456789
10
morethan 1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
Visibility(Wind-)Profiler/SodarWeb(CAMs)CeilometerSAT (Fog Channel)AWSCloud radar
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.5Question 5.5Opinion about Geographical Opinion about Geographical
locations?locations?
23
29
52
44
4
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
YES by my ownactivity
They ask NO Would liketo
Would notlike to
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.1Question 6.1How often?How often?
26
13
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
never sometimes often
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.2Question 6.2How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
25
12
5
1
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.3Question 6.3Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
4840
123
45
110
020406080
100120140
Updat
e to
o slo
w
Repre
senta
tion
poor
Info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
too fe
w obse
rvat
ions
all d
ata
not s
hown
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.4 (1)Question 6.4 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?
7
12
57
4 4
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
SYNOP
META
R
TEMP
SAT (i.e
. NOAA)
AUTOSYNOP
Visib
ility
Ceilo
met
er
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.4 (2) Question 6.4 (2) How often ?How often ?
12
5
22
5
12
1
2
45
4
1 1
2
1
2
1
2
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
more than1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AUTOSYNOPVisibilityCeilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (1)Question 6.5 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?
4
5
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
TEMP/ra
dioso
undin
g
SAT ("fo
g ch
anne
l")
(Web
-) CAM
sAW
S
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (2)Question 6.5 (2)Others mentionedOthers mentioned
• VisibilityVisibility• AUTOSYNOPAUTOSYNOP• (Net) Radiation(Net) Radiation• CeilometersCeilometers• BuoyBuoy• WindprofilerWindprofiler• More OBSMore OBS
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (3) Question 6.5 (3) How often ?How often ?
12
3
17
8
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
more than 1 h 1 h 30' 15' real time
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.1Question 7.1Official Climate Info?Official Climate Info?
59
12
21
10
31
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
YES Specificdomestic
Specificforeign
mapdomestic
map foreign NO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.2Question 7.2Do you use climate info ?Do you use climate info ?
40
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
YES NO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.3Question 7.3Which sources ?Which sources ?
3539 39
2218
9
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
My
own
Map
/dia
gram
s
paper
com
puter
numer
ical
/sta
tistic
s
paper
com
pter
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.4Question 7.4What kinds ?What kinds ?
1412
97
65
15
02468
10121416
diagra
ms
loca
l/num
erica
l sta
tistic
s
loca
l dia
gram
s (e
.g. a
irp...
exper
ienc
em
aps
tables
case
stu
dies
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.5Question 7.5Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
87102
181
2737
020406080
100120140160180200
Do no
t know
how to
use
poor r
epre
senta
tion
info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
few s
ites
data n
ot av
ailab
le
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.6 (1) Question 7.6 (1) What climate info would you like?What climate info would you like?
1816
1210 9
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
do no
t know
!
numer
ical
met
hods/m
o...
diagra
ms
loca
l sta
tisic
s, p
robb
ilitie
s
more
clim
ate s
ites/
data
map
s
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.6 (2)Question 7.6 (2)additional answersadditional answers
• Frequency maps or variablesFrequency maps or variables• MapsMaps• ProfilesProfiles• More dataMore data• Radiation balanceRadiation balance• Weather type cliamtologyWeather type cliamtology
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.7 (1) Question 7.7 (1) Do you have special statistical Do you have special statistical
model for prediction ?model for prediction ?
17
2 2
74
01020304050607080
NOYES
clim
atol
ogic
al ch
eckl
ists
exper
imen
tal s
tatis
tics
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.7 (2) Question 7.7 (2) additional answers:additional answers:
• MOSMOS• Experimental statisticsExperimental statistics• Model 850 hPa WBPT vs SSTModel 850 hPa WBPT vs SST• Statistical modelStatistical model• Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.1Question 8.1Numerical ModelsNumerical Models
17
13
35
15
74
14 5
14
4
39
2
05
1015202530354045
ECWMF ALADIN ARPEGE HIRLAM(DK, FIN,
ESP)
UK Meso aLMo
WorkstationInternetIntranet
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.2Question 8.2Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level
fieldsfields• In general: In general:
Combination ofCombination of• SFCSFC• 1000 hPa1000 hPa• 950 hPa950 hPa• 925 hPa925 hPa• 850 hPa850 hPa• 800 hPa800 hPa
• ALADIN:ALADIN:– 2, 10, 50, 100, 2, 10, 50, 100,
250, 500, 750 250, 500, 750 1000, 1250, 1000, 1250, 1500 m1500 m
– 1000, 950, 900, 1000, 950, 900, 850, 800 hPa850, 800 hPa
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.3Question 8.3Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level
fields proposedfields proposed• d 20 hPad 20 hPa
• d 5 and 10 hPad 5 and 10 hPa
• 950 hPa950 hPa
• No more levelsNo more levels
• As much as As much as possiblepossible 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
#
d 50 hPad 25 hPa
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.4 (1)Question 8.4 (1)available model products ?available model products ?
9
64
45
27
9
53
81
19
67
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
YES NO
Troposhere modelsounding of tt, rh, wind
model soundingfocused on boundarylayertime-height crosssectinos of differentlevelsMeteograms
cross sections ofdiferent fields
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.4 (2)Question 8.4 (2)available model products ?available model products ?
53
59
10
66
44
7
31
18
32
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
YES NO
diagnosed visibilityfieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase fieldsdiagnosed low cloudstop fieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase amountdiagnosed low cloudsbase phase
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.5Question 8.5How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
44
20
5
0
26
05
101520253035404550
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.6Question 8.6Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
5636
245
31 22
72
050
100150200250300
Produ
cts
too
late
Poor r
epre
senta
tion
Info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
few u
sefu
l pro
ducts
mode
l erro
rs/n
ot reli
abl..
.
FG not p
redict
ed
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
•Question 8.7Question 8.71-d models available ?1-d models available ?
• Check (d)p, tCheck (d)p, tLL, , ttDD, wind, wind
• ALADINALADIN• Only for Only for
visibilityvisibility• 30 years of 30 years of
experienceexperience0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
#
YESNO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.8Question 8.8new productsnew products
• high resolution in the boundary layerhigh resolution in the boundary layer (12)(12)• Boundary layer modelBoundary layer model (11)(11)• Low cloud parameter modelLow cloud parameter model (7)(7)• Fog model (determ./probab./statis.)Fog model (determ./probab./statis.) (7)(7)• Radiation balance modelRadiation balance model (4)(4)• Cross-sectionsCross-sections (4)(4)• 1-d model for specific location1-d model for specific location (4)(4)• ......
Recommended