EUROPEAN INVESTMENT MARKET - zhonglun.com · 2 CBRE | EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR Economic ... 30...

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT

MARKET July 2014

2 CBRE | EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

Economic

trends

Major markets +

Key transactions Outlook

Economic

trends

Major markets +

Economic sentiment, vs long-run average

SENTIMENT HAS IMPROVED

(20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20

France

EU Average

Germany

April 14

April 13

Source: Eurostat

Eurozone

France

Germany

United Kingdom

Source: CBRE Research, Oxford Economics

Q1 2004 = 100

REAL EUROPEAN GDP INDEXED TO 2004

VARIED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Average annual GDP growth

2014-2016

3.5% and above

2.6% to 3.4%

1.5% to 2.5%

0.5% to 1.4% RUSSIA

IRELAND UK

SWEDEN

NORWAY FINLAND

NETHERLANDS

BELGIUM GERMANY

FRANCE

PORTUGAL

SWITZERLAND

LUXEMBOURG

REPUBLIC

POLAND

AUSTRIA

BELARUS

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

SLOVAKIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA

GREECE

BULGARIA

CROATIA

SERBIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

MOLDOVA

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

ALBANIA MACEDONIA

TURKEY

ICELAND

MONTENEGRO

DENMARK

Office (regions)

EVM EUROPEAN VALUE INDICES

Q4 2007 = 100

Source: CBRE Valuation

France

Germany

Office

Quarterly yield shift in the EU-15 countries

INCREASING INVESTMENT HAS PUSHED DOWN YIELDS

Q-on-Q Change (Bps)

Source: CBRE Research

All Property

SPREAD OF PRIME AND SECONDARY YIELDS

Spread

Secondary

Source: CBRE Valuation

Percentage Points

EUROPEAN CRE in 2013 €166 billion

EUROPEAN CRE in 2012 €128 billion

America 2013 €20.5 billion

2012 €11.9 billion

Asia 2013 €9.9 billion 2012 €4.9 billion

Australia 2013 €0.6 billion 2012 €0.2 billion

Middle East 2013 €9.85 billion

2012 €5.8 billion

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H12014*

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN EUROPE

Billion €

* Preliminary results

Housto

Domestic

Intra-regional

Cross-regional

LONDON A MAJOR TARGET Billion €

Note: * All commercial real estate and hotels

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN EUROPE

15% 4% 1% 1%

22% USA

Middle East

Canada

Australia

Other Global

Germany

Other European

Destination hierarchy

GLOBAL INVESTORS

TRADITIONAL PRIME

HIGHER GROWTH POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES

London

Major German cities

UK Regions

Major cities –

Rest of Europe

Spain | Portugal | Italy

Economic

trends

Major markets +

Market highlights

UNITED KINGDOM

Country overview

Population 64.2 million

GDP output (2013) £1.5 trillion

Investment market

CRE investment 2013 £54 billion (Central London: 50%)

Prime yield 3.75% - 4.5%

Prime rent p/sq m £1,130

Market structure

Typical lease length 10 years

VAT 21%

Transfer tax 4% stamp duty

1 Lime Street, EC3, London

THE LLOYDS BUILDING

Purchaser: Ping An

Vendor: CLI Group

Q3 2013

348,000 sq ft

£260m

61 Aldwych, WC2, London

CENTRIUM

Purchaser: China Overseas

Holdings

Vendor: GLL

Q4 2013

179,712 sq ft

£170m

London West End, W1

HANOVER SQUARE ESTATE

Purchaser: HKMA

Vendor: Great Portland Estate

Q4 2013

208,000 sq ft

£101m

Canary Wharf, London

10 UPPER BANK STREET

Vendor: Clifford Chance

Purchaser: China Life Insurance

Q2 2014

93,000 sq m

£795m

FRANCE

Market highlights

FRANCE

Country overview

GDP output (2013) €2.1 trillion

Investment market

CRE investment 2013 €16.4 billion (Paris: 68%)

Prime yield 4% - 4.5%

Prime rent p/sq m €800

Market structure

Typical lease length 3/6/9 years

VAT 20%

Transfer tax 5.9% stamp duty

Paris, La Defense

TOUR ADRIA

Purchaser: Primonial

Vendor: Testa

Q3 2013

54,000 sq m

€450m

Paris, 9ème

ROSSINI

Purchaser: Aviva

Vendor: Innovalis

Q1 2014

6,270 sq m

In excess of €90m

GERMANY

Market highlights

GERMANY

Country overview

GDP output (2013) €2.5 trillion

Investment market

CRE investment 2013 €30.4 billion

Prime yield 4.5% - 5%

Market structure

Typical lease length 5+5 years

VAT 19%

Transfer tax 3.5% - 6.5%

Office

GERMANY PRIME RENTS

€ per sq m pa

Frankfurt

Munich

Hamburg

Berlin

Office

GERMANY PRIME YIELDS

Berlin

Frankfurt

Hamburg

Munich

60327 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

TOWER 185

Purchaser: PwC Pension Fund

Vendor: CA Immo Deutschland GmbH

Q3 2013

100,201 sq m

Asset value in excess of €500m

Munich, Germany

SIEMENS FORUM

Purchaser: NPS with Hines

Vendor: Siemens RE

Q3 2013

32,000 sq m

€151m

Berlin, Germany

LINDENCORSO

Purchaser: Generali

Vendor: Lindencorso Grundstucks

Q2 2013

28,700 sq m

€150m

Market highlights

Country overview

GDP output (2013) €1 trillion

Investment market

CRE investment 2013 €64 billion (Madrid 35%, Barcelona 21%)

Prime yield 5.75%

Market structure

Typical lease length 3-5 years

VAT 21%

Transfer tax 7% (+1.5% stamp duty)

Purchaser: PSP

Vendor: Santander, BBVA, Sabadell and

Under offer

Mixed-use office: 37,750 sq m

€140m

Madrid, Spain

CASTELLANA 200

Market highlights

Country overview

GDP output €1.4 trillion

Investment market

CRE investment 2013 €4.8 billion (Milan 31%, Rome 21%)

Prime yield 6.00%

Market structure

Typical lease length 6 + 6 years

VAT 21%

Transfer tax 4% for non-Italian investors

Milan, Italy

PORTA NUOVA

Purchaser: Qatar Holdings

Vendor: Hines Italia Sgr

Q1 2013

250,000 sq m

€600m

Milan, Italy

SANTA MARGHERITA

Purchaser: Qatar - Sovereign Wealth

Vendor: Tishman Speyer

Q1 2014

131,987 sq ft

€105m

Economic

trends

Major markets +

Outlook

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Germany

Percent

Outlook

PRIME OFFICE YIELDS

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Munich

London West End

Percent

5 years to 2019 (local currency*)

PRIME OFFICES TOTAL RETURNS

Percent per annum

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Berlin

Frankfurt

Munich

London (City)

London (West End)

Paris (La Defense)

Barcelona

Madrid

Dublin

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT MARKET - zhonglun.com · 2 CBRE | EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR Economic ... 30...

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