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European Elections in the UKMedia Briefing
7th May 2014
UKIP and the 2014 EuropeanParliament elections
Dr Philip Lynch (PLL3@le.ac.uk)
& Dr Richard Whitaker (rcw11@le.ac.uk)
University of Leicester
UKIP and the 2014 European Elections
Philip Lynch (PLL3@leicester.ac.uk, @drphiliplynch) and Richard Whitaker (rcw11@leicester.ac.uk,
@rickwhitaker)
Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester
UKIP go into the 2014 European elections in a far stronger position than they did five years earlier.
The crucial differences are first, that UKIP have not experienced the decline in support in general
election polling that they normally do after a European election. On the contrary, they are now
consistently placed in third position in polls of general election vote intentions. Second, their
ratings in polls of European election vote intention are some ten points higher on average than they
were in the run up to the 2009 contest for seats in the European Parliament (EP). Third, they have
more than double the number of members and a much better, even if still small base in local
councils having secured 147 seats in the 2013 local elections. Fourth, while they have benefitted in
the past from Conservative supporters lending UKIP their vote, they are in an even better position
to do so this time around given that the Tories are now in government. On top of that, if UKIP’s
campaign to win even more support from working class voters is successful, they will make
headway in areas where Labour are traditionally strong. The presence of the Liberal Democrats in
government alongside the collapse of the BNP add to the auspicious conditions for UKIP in 2014.
What do we know about likely UKIP voters at the 2014 European elections? Many Conservative
supporters do appear to be lending their vote to UKIP. Around one quarter of those who would
vote Conservative if a general election were held tomorrow, will vote UKIP at the European
elections, on the basis of a YouGov poll of over 5,000 respondents in late April. Furthermore, 41%
of those who voted Cons in 2010 say they will vote UKIP in May 2014. UKIP are therefore gaining in
the European elections at the expense of the Conservatives far more than from other parties. UKIP
are performing better among older and male voters and better among those in the C2DE classes
compared with those classified as ABC1. Nevertheless, they still gain support from a little below
one-quarter of ABC1 voters, a point that often seems to be neglected amid the party’s focus on
picking up working class voters. At the 2009 European elections, Euroscepticism was the most
powerful factor explaining the UKIP vote, with a desire to express views on the UK and the EU,
dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and attitudes to immigration also important. A recent
YouGov poll indicated that wanting out of the EU was the most frequently cited reason for
supporting UKIP at the upcoming EP elections, although this may be partly a result of some
respondents giving what they perceive to be the ‘right answer’ to the question.
Looking at those saying they will vote UKIP at a general election, the party has made the biggest
gains in the post-2010 election period among working class voters, as Ford and Goodwin spell out in
their book Revolt on the Right. Nevertheless, they also show that UKIP gains on support from across
a range of groups. Drawing on the British Election Study’s Continuous Monitoring Survey, fully 35%
of UKIP supporters in the April 2012-April 2013 period were managers or professionals.
The working class support that UKIP is gaining poses a problem for the Conservatives as well as
Labour. Some of these working class UKIP voters are ex-Conservatives, others are blue collar voters
who are part of a social group that the Conservatives used to attract but who now seem beyond
their reach. These are the type of voters for whom the patriotism, social authoritarianism and
aspirational aspects of Thatcherism were attractive. In winning working class support, UKIP makes it
more difficult for the Conservatives to be a cross-class, cross-national party. Working class
conservatives now face a Tebbit test about which side to cheer for, the Conservative Party or UKIP.
UKIP’s expansion has brought with it some growing pains. The party has broadened its narrative to
encompass policies – such as immigration – beyond its core issue of leaving the EU. However, a
disconnect persists between the views of many in the UKIP leadership who favour Thatcherite
economic policies and are socially liberal, and UKIP’s socially conservative, working class
supporters. Nigel Farage has disowned UKIP’s 2010 election manifesto, and the party’s 2014 local
and European election manifestos have a sharper focus on ‘betrayed working people’ than
previously. Their current policy review could be used to dilute their small state, low tax approach
but whether donors and activists would tolerate major changes in the party’s economic policy is not
clear. In addition, growth has brought pressure for organisational change. The party has improved
its approach with tougher candidate selection procedures for the European elections for instance.
Nevertheless, the selection of candidates for council seats has clearly not been without problems.
UKIP have belatedly realised the need to build up representation on local councils as part of the
route towards winning seats at Westminster. In addition they are aware of their poorer
performance among young people, women and ethnic minorities, and chose to feature all of these
groups in their first Party Election Broadcast of the campaign.
UKIP are set to expand their delegation in the European Parliament by some way at these elections.
The ‘new UKIP’ contingent will look different partly because there are only six incumbent MEPs
standing for the party and also because there are 6-7 women in winnable positions. Jane Collins
and Jill Seymour top the lists in Yorkshire and the Humber, and the West Midlands respectively.
Female UKIP candidates are in second place on the party’s lists in the North West, East Midlands,
South East and South West plus a third-placed female candidate (Diane James) in the 10-seat South
East region. 11 of the UKIP candidates in with a chance of winning a seat are former Conservatives
including William Dartmouth, formerly a Conservative peer, and Roger Helmer who defected from
the Tories in March 2012.
Success for UKIP would mean many of their key personnel will be MEPs including not only the
leader and deputy leader but their Director of Communications (Patrick O’Flynn), General Secretary
(Jonathan Arnott) and the head of their policy unit (Tim Aker). While UKIP are open about the
variation in approaches taken by their MEPs, those in major strategic positions for the party will
surely have to spend a good deal of their time in the UK in order to carry out their party-based
roles.
In the aftermath of the European elections comes the process of forming groups in the European
Parliament. Here UKIP may find things difficult in that their largest partner, the Italian Northern
League, looks set to join a group led by Marine Le Pen’s Front National and Geert Wilders’ Freedom
Party, if they can summon up the numbers of MEPs and member states needed. There may also be
some competition with the European Conservatives and Reformists group for the more palatable
Eurosceptics in the EP.
UKIP success will pose strategic dilemmas for other parties. Should UKIP win the 2014 European
elections, we can expect more dissent from Eurosceptic Conservative MPs who want to see the
party take a tougher line on the EU and immigration. If UKIP perform well in Labour’s heartlands at
a time when Miliband’s party are in opposition, Labour will face questions about how to respond to
UKIP’s appeal. Ignoring it may not be an option. Alternatives are to hold their position and
emphasise the Thatcherite elements of UKIP’s policies, or to move closer to UKIP on immigration
and the EU. Evidently some Lib Dem voters have shifted to UKIP – most likely those who wanted an
option other than the largest two parties. This trend could contribute to a sharp fall in Liberal
Democrat vote share in 2014. In any case, a UKIP victory will pose questions of strategy for all three
main parties.
06/05/2014
1
UKIP’s general and European electoral
performance
0.3
7
1.5
16.1
2.2
16.5
3.1
024681012141618
1997 1999 2001 2004 2005 2009 2010
Percentage of vote
Percentage of vote
Percentage of vote
Percentage of vote
Election yearElection yearElection yearElection year
General elections European elections
General election vote intention (2012-14, YouGov polls)
010
20
30
40
50
Date
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
spo
nde
nts
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14
Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP
Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/
European election vote intention (from YouGov polls) 2014
010
20
30
40
50
Date
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
spo
nde
nts
15_Jan 18_Mar 27_Mar 28_Mar 4_Apr 22_Apr 25_Apr 27_Apr
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
UKIP
Green
BNP
Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/
06/05/2014
2
Region Cons Lab UKIP Lib Dem BNP Green Others
South
West30.2 7.7 22.1 17.2 3.9 9.3 9.6
West
Midlands28.1 17 21.3 12 8.6 6.2 6.7
East 31.2 10.5 19.6 13.8 6.1 8.8 10.1
South East 34.8 8.2 18.8 14.1 4.4 11.6 8
Yorks &
Humber24.5 18.8 17.4 13.2 9.8 8.5 7.9
East
Midlands30.2 16.9 16.4 12.3 8.7 6.8 8.7
North
West25.6 20.4 15.8 14.3 8 7.7 8.2
North East 19.8 25 15.4 17.6 8.9 5.8 7.5
Wales 21.2 20.3 12.8 10.7 5.4 5.6 24.0
London 27.4 21.3 10.8 13.7 4.9 10.9 11.1
GB 27.7 15.7 16.5 13.7 6.2 8.6 11.6
2009 European Parliament elections – share of vote (%)
UKIP in the 2009 European Parliament elections
Region UKIP vote % UKIP MEPs Round elected
South West 22.1 2 of 6 2, 5
West Midlands 21.3 2 of 7* 2, 6
East 19.6 2 of 7 2, 7
South East 18.8 2 of 10 2, 7
Yorks & Humber 17.4 1 of 6 3
East Midlands 16.4 1 of 5 3
North West 15.8 1 of 8 3
North East 15.4 0 of 3 -
Wales 12.8 1 of 4 4
London 10.8 1 of 8 6
Scotland 5.2 0 of 6 -
TOTAL 13 MEPs
2010 vote choice and current Westminster vote
choice by intention to vote UKIP in Euro elections
41
24
148
19
6
98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 vote choice Current Westminster preference
% i
n c
ate
go
ry w
ho
wo
uld
vo
te
UK
IP i
n E
uro
ele
ctio
ns
Cons Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=5331
06/05/2014
3
05
10
15
20
25
Date
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
spo
nde
nts
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14
Conservative Labour Lib Dem
Source: First YouGov poll in each month (http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/)
Percentages of main party voters switching to UKIP, Jan
2012-Apr 2014
Sex, age, class by intention to vote
UKIP in European elections
29
26
10
17
31
37
23
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Male Female 18-24 25-39 40-59 60+ ABC1 C2DE
% i
n c
ate
go
ry w
ho
wo
uld
vo
te U
KIP
in E
uro
ele
ctio
ns
Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=1141 UKIP EP voters
Why vote UKIP in Euro elecs?
Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=1141 UKIP EP voters
05
101520253035404550
% o
f re
spo
nd
en
ts
06/05/2014
4
Percentage support for UKIP within
occupational groups
Source: CMS monthly
polls aggregated into 12
month groups.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% o
f o
ccu
pa
tio
na
l g
rou
p s
up
po
rtin
g
UK
IP
Pro or manager
Routine non-manual
(clerical or sales)
Skilled manual or
supervisor
Semi or unskilled manual
Breakdown of UKIP support by occupation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Never worked
Semi or unskilled manual
Skilled manual or supervisor
Routine non-manual
(clerical or sales)
Pro or manager
Source: CMS monthly
polls aggregated into 12
month groups.
UKIP at 21: growing pains & maturity
• Growing pains
– maintaining support from former Conservatives while
repositioning as party for the working class
– tensions between ideology/policy of UKIP leadership &
positions of UKIP supporters
• UKIP a maturing party – ‘new UKIP’
– becoming more professional
– recognises need to build local presence
– sharper focus on winning working class support
06/05/2014
5
Age profile of UKIP European election
candidates, 2009 and 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+
2009
2014
Source: Lynch and Whitaker survey for 2009 n=47 (68% response rate). For 2014:
UKIP internal publication, 2014 MEP Candidate details: Your candidates, your choice.
UKIP 2014 leading candidates
North East (3 seats): Jonathan Arnott
North West (8 seats): Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours, Steven Woolfe,
Shneur Odze
Yorkshire & Humber (6 seats): Jane Collins, Amjad Bashir, Mike Hookem
East Midlands (5 seats): Roger Helmer, Margot Parker, Jonathan Bullock
West Midlands (7 seats): Jill Seymour, James Carter, Bill Etheridge
East (7 seats): Patrick O’Flynn, Stuart Agnew, Tim Aker
London (8 seats): Gerard Batten, Paul Oakley
South East (10 seats): Nigel Farage, Janice Atkinson, Diane James,
Ray Finch
South West (6 seats): William Dartmouth, Julia Reid, Gawain Towler
Wales (4 seats): Nathan Gill
Scotland (6 seats): David Coburn
Post-EP election opportunities and
dilemmas
• Forming group in European Parliament
– Problems as most sizable partner at present is
Lega Nord (will go to Le Pen/Wilders group)
– Competition with Conservatives for more
palatable Eurosceptics
• Strategic dilemmas for other parties
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