EU BIODIESEL MARKET 1 POTS 2014 - MY Palm Oil … · eu biodiesel market 1 jose angel olivero-...

EU BIODIESEL MARKET

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JOSE ANGEL OLIVERO- LIPSA OCT 2014

POTS 2014

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There are different sustainabilityschemes

ISCC (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification)

2BSVS (Biomass Biofuels voluntary scheme) RSPO RED (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil RED) RTRS EU RED (Round Table on Responsible Soy EU RED) RSB EU RED (Roundtable of Sustainable Biofuels EU RED) RBSA (Abengoa RED Bioenergy Sustainability Assurance) Others…

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MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD IN MILLION MT

6,6% IN THE LAST 4 YEARS. 4,1% IN THE LAST 6

4,018 4,000

3,925

4,040

4,085

4,139

4,185

3,750

3,800

3,850

3,900

3,950

4,000

4,050

4,100

4,150

4,200

4,250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TOTAL WORLD

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MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION PER REGION IN MILLION MT

1,123 1,068

1,017 1,040 1,030 1,014 1,024

262 273 272 283 291 299 312

957 957 912 906 902 884 879

314 336 347 354 361 378 385

145 153 156 164 158 166 171

1,217 1,213 1,220 1,292

1,342 1,398 1,415

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200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NorthAm

SCAmerica

Europe/Eurasia

ME

Africa

Asia Pac

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MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE EU-28

298 295 303 312 320 326 320

182 178 174 172 168 162 159

682 678 681 687 693 693 678

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

DIESEL

GASOLINE

TOTAL

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(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10TOTAL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINAL

PRODUCTION 203.182 198.229 188.171 186.295 177.803 171.088

17 MAIN OILS & FATS PRODUCED WORLDWIDE

Source: Oil World + Own estimations

TOTAL VEG OIL PRODUCTION IN THEWORLD

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(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10SOYBEAN OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 47.150 44.218 42.140 42.220 41.380 38.890

(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10PALM OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 60.930 58.920 55.950 52.470 49.520 46.260

Source: Oil World + Own estimations

TOTAL SOYBEAN OIL AND PALM OILPRODUCTION IN THE WORLD

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(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10SUNFLOWER OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 15.410 16.330 13.570 15.260 12.407 12.658

(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10RAPESEED OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 26.850 26.730 25.190 24.430 24.060 23.732

Source: Oil World + Own estimations

TOTAL SUNFLOWER OIL AND RAPE OILPRODUCTION IN THE WORLD

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(000 MT) 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020TOTAL (17 OILS & FATS) 82.006 94.715 113.497 138.953 170.918 203.032 239.000SOY 15.975 20.307 25.331 32.870 38.890 47.150 55.000PALM 11.476 15.203 21.219 33.510 46.080 60.930 78.000SUNFLOWER 8.124 8.686 9.551 9.422 12.620 15.410 18.000

RAPE 8.932 10.975 14.476 15.858 23.750 26.850 31.000

Source: Oil World + Own estimations

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FOR 2020

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VEGETABLE OIL CONSUMPTION PER TYPE OF USE

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VEGETABLE OIL CONSUMPTION PER SECTOR IN THOUSAND MT

7,636 7,680 7,789 8,510

13,189 12,918 12,879 12,515

24,574 23,740 23,826

24,632

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

BIODIESEL

FOOD

TOTAL

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RAW MATERIALS USED IN THE BIODIESEL PRODUCTION IN THE EU-28 IN 2011

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RAW MATERIALS USED IN THE BIODIESEL PRODUCTION IN THE EU-28 IN 2014

3%

25%

55%

1%1%

4%

11%

Soybean oil

Palm oil

Rapeseed oil

Others

Sunflower oil

Animal fat

UCO

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RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION IN THEEU-28 (OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2014)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013France 2,0 2,0 1,8 2,1 2,0Germany 2,5 2,8 2,8 2,6 2,7Italy 0,8 0,8 0,5 0,4 0,6Poland 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6Spain 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,5 0,6Austria 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,4Belgium 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,4Netherlands 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,8 1,0Finland 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,3U.K. 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3Portugal 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3Czech Rep. 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2Other EU 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9Total EU-28 8,9 9,7 9,3 9,6 10,2Use of UCO 0,6 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,2

net use of fresh oils & fats 8,3 8,9 8,4 8,5 9,0

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EU-28 RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION (BP)

16192037

3157

5058

6,826

8,223

10,280

11,200

10,318

11,133 10,988

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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU

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EU-28 RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION PER COUNTRY (BP)

613

890

1525

2488

3,181

2,720 2,728

2,888 2,825

2,888

2,615

368 387 439

665

1,121

2,012

2,312 2,269

1,859

2,071 1,936

0 6 3 2280 77

241 385

627

1,255 1,182

172.6 210282 251

352 359

958

1,267

809

586 674

232.2 272340

585443

617 758

670

456

292 292

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500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GERMANY

FRANCE

NETHERLANDS

SPAIN

BELGIUM

ITALY

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EU-28 HVO PRODUCTION IN THOUSAND MT. MAINLY NETHERLANDS AND SPAIN

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2010 2011 2012 2013 1st S

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IMPORTS BIODIESEL SPAIN

348,204

607,642

828,844

1,066,047

1,386,610

136,101 112,963

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200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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43600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

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CPO CIF NW EUR SBO FDM SFO NWE Diesel CIF Med. USD/MT RSO FDM

Usd/mt Diesel vs CPO- SBO- SFO- RSO

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POGO-BOGO-SOGO-ROGO 2011-2014 USD

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POGO BOGO SOGO ROGO

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POGO VS STOCK MALASIA 2011-2014 ('000 MT.)

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POGO Stock MPOB

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Thanks for your attentionJose Angel Olivero

jaolivero@lipsa.es

+34 666551112

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