Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
EU BIODIESEL MARKET
1
JOSE ANGEL OLIVERO- LIPSA OCT 2014
POTS 2014
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
There are different sustainabilityschemes
ISCC (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification)
2BSVS (Biomass Biofuels voluntary scheme) RSPO RED (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil RED) RTRS EU RED (Round Table on Responsible Soy EU RED) RSB EU RED (Roundtable of Sustainable Biofuels EU RED) RBSA (Abengoa RED Bioenergy Sustainability Assurance) Others…
11
12
13
MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD IN MILLION MT
6,6% IN THE LAST 4 YEARS. 4,1% IN THE LAST 6
4,018 4,000
3,925
4,040
4,085
4,139
4,185
3,750
3,800
3,850
3,900
3,950
4,000
4,050
4,100
4,150
4,200
4,250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TOTAL WORLD
14
MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION PER REGION IN MILLION MT
1,123 1,068
1,017 1,040 1,030 1,014 1,024
262 273 272 283 291 299 312
957 957 912 906 902 884 879
314 336 347 354 361 378 385
145 153 156 164 158 166 171
1,217 1,213 1,220 1,292
1,342 1,398 1,415
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NorthAm
SCAmerica
Europe/Eurasia
ME
Africa
Asia Pac
15
MINERAL OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE EU-28
298 295 303 312 320 326 320
182 178 174 172 168 162 159
682 678 681 687 693 693 678
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DIESEL
GASOLINE
TOTAL
16
17
18
(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10TOTAL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINAL
PRODUCTION 203.182 198.229 188.171 186.295 177.803 171.088
17 MAIN OILS & FATS PRODUCED WORLDWIDE
Source: Oil World + Own estimations
TOTAL VEG OIL PRODUCTION IN THEWORLD
19
(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10SOYBEAN OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 47.150 44.218 42.140 42.220 41.380 38.890
(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10PALM OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 60.930 58.920 55.950 52.470 49.520 46.260
Source: Oil World + Own estimations
TOTAL SOYBEAN OIL AND PALM OILPRODUCTION IN THE WORLD
20
(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10SUNFLOWER OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 15.410 16.330 13.570 15.260 12.407 12.658
(000 MT) 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10RAPESEED OIL ESTIM ESTIM UPDATED FINAL FINAL FINALPRODUCTION 26.850 26.730 25.190 24.430 24.060 23.732
Source: Oil World + Own estimations
TOTAL SUNFLOWER OIL AND RAPE OILPRODUCTION IN THE WORLD
21
(000 MT) 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020TOTAL (17 OILS & FATS) 82.006 94.715 113.497 138.953 170.918 203.032 239.000SOY 15.975 20.307 25.331 32.870 38.890 47.150 55.000PALM 11.476 15.203 21.219 33.510 46.080 60.930 78.000SUNFLOWER 8.124 8.686 9.551 9.422 12.620 15.410 18.000
RAPE 8.932 10.975 14.476 15.858 23.750 26.850 31.000
Source: Oil World + Own estimations
ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FOR 2020
22
23
VEGETABLE OIL CONSUMPTION PER TYPE OF USE
24
VEGETABLE OIL CONSUMPTION PER SECTOR IN THOUSAND MT
7,636 7,680 7,789 8,510
13,189 12,918 12,879 12,515
24,574 23,740 23,826
24,632
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
BIODIESEL
FOOD
TOTAL
25
26
RAW MATERIALS USED IN THE BIODIESEL PRODUCTION IN THE EU-28 IN 2011
27
RAW MATERIALS USED IN THE BIODIESEL PRODUCTION IN THE EU-28 IN 2014
3%
25%
55%
1%1%
4%
11%
Soybean oil
Palm oil
Rapeseed oil
Others
Sunflower oil
Animal fat
UCO
28
29
RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION IN THEEU-28 (OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2014)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013France 2,0 2,0 1,8 2,1 2,0Germany 2,5 2,8 2,8 2,6 2,7Italy 0,8 0,8 0,5 0,4 0,6Poland 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6Spain 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,5 0,6Austria 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,4Belgium 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,4Netherlands 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,8 1,0Finland 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,3U.K. 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3Portugal 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3Czech Rep. 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2Other EU 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9Total EU-28 8,9 9,7 9,3 9,6 10,2Use of UCO 0,6 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,2
net use of fresh oils & fats 8,3 8,9 8,4 8,5 9,0
30
EU-28 RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION (BP)
16192037
3157
5058
6,826
8,223
10,280
11,200
10,318
11,133 10,988
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU
31
EU-28 RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION PER COUNTRY (BP)
613
890
1525
2488
3,181
2,720 2,728
2,888 2,825
2,888
2,615
368 387 439
665
1,121
2,012
2,312 2,269
1,859
2,071 1,936
0 6 3 2280 77
241 385
627
1,255 1,182
172.6 210282 251
352 359
958
1,267
809
586 674
232.2 272340
585443
617 758
670
456
292 292
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GERMANY
FRANCE
NETHERLANDS
SPAIN
BELGIUM
ITALY
32
EU-28 HVO PRODUCTION IN THOUSAND MT. MAINLY NETHERLANDS AND SPAIN
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 1st S
33
34
35
36
37
IMPORTS BIODIESEL SPAIN
348,204
607,642
828,844
1,066,047
1,386,610
136,101 112,963
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
38
39
40
41
42
43600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
11 12 13 14
CPO CIF NW EUR SBO FDM SFO NWE Diesel CIF Med. USD/MT RSO FDM
Usd/mt Diesel vs CPO- SBO- SFO- RSO
44
45
POGO-BOGO-SOGO-ROGO 2011-2014 USD
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
11 12 13 14
POGO BOGO SOGO ROGO
46
POGO VS STOCK MALASIA 2011-2014 ('000 MT.)
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
11 12 13 14
POGO Stock MPOB
47
48
49
Thanks for your attentionJose Angel Olivero
+34 666551112
50
