Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications

Tom Hopson

OutlineI. Thorpex-Tigge data setII. Ensemble forecast examples:

a) Southwestern African flooding

• TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

• component of the World Weather Research Programme

• TIGGE archive consists of ensemble forecast data from ten global NWP centers

• designed to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity.

• starting from October 2006

• available for scientific research

• near-real time forecasts (some centers delayed)

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

Archive Status and Monitoring, Data Receipt

Archive Centre

Current Data Provider

NCAR NCEP

ECMWFMeteoFrance

JMAKMA

BoMCPTEC

IDD/LDM

Unidata IDD/LDMInternet Data Distribution / Local Data ManagerCommodity internet application to send and receive data

Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers

N200N128

0.56x0.561.00x1.001.25x0.831.25x1.251.50x1.50

0 1 2 3 4

Spatial Resolution

ECMWF UKMO JMA NCEP CMA CMC BOM MF KMA CPTEC

Number of Data Providers

UKMOJM

CMACMC

BOM MFKMA

80 # fields, # ensemble members

Conforming parameters

Ensemble Members

ECMWFUKMO

NCEPCMA

CMCBOM MF

KMACPTEC

1012141618

Forecast Length, Initialization

Forecast Length (Days)

Forecasts/day

Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive Completeness

PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320K θ Level, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level

Variable LvL ECWF UKMO JMA NCEP CMA CMC BOM MetF KMA CPTC

Geopotential Z PL

Specific H PL

U-velocity PL

V-velocity PL

Potential Vor PT

Potential T PV

U-velocity PV

V-Velocity PV

U 10m SL

V 10m SL

CAPE SL

Conv. Inhib. SL

Land-sea SL

Mean SLP SL

Orog. SL

Skin T SL

Snow D. H20 SL

Snow F. H20 SL

Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive CompletenessVariable LvL ECWF UKMO JMA NCEP CMA CMC BOM MetF KMA CPTCSoil Moist. SL

Soil T SL

Sunshine D. SL

Surf. DPT SL

Surf. ATmax SL

Surf. ATmin SL

Surf. AT SL

Surf. P SL

LW Rad. Out SL

LH flux SL

Net Rad SL

Net Therm. Rad SL

Sensible Rad. SL

Cloud Cov SL

Column Water SL

Precipitation SL

Wilt. Point SL

Field Cap. SL

PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320K θ Level, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level

OutlineI. Motivation for ensemble forecasting and post-

processinga) Introduce Quantile Regression (QR; Kroenker and

Bassett, 1978) post-processing procedureII. Ensemble forecast verificationIII. Thorpex-Tigge data setIV. Ensemble forecast examples:

a) Southwestern African floodingb) African meningitisc) US Army test range weather forecastingd) Bangladesh flood forecasting

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa-- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 24hr precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa-- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 24hr precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa-- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 5-day precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa-- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 5day precip

Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications

Documents

Munehiko Yamaguchi 1 21 August 2014 (Thu.) Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones using TIGGE World Weather Open Science Conference Montreal,

DEVELOPMENTAL TESTBED CENTER (DTC) ENSEMBLE TEAM …xs1.somas.stonybrook.edu/~na-thorpex/tigge_workshop... · Office Mesoscale Modeling Hurricanes Data Assimilation Ensembles Verification

The TIGGE experience Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO S2S project planning group meeting, Exeter,

TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella

Memo re... · Web viewBecause in general, ensemble weather forecast information needs to be calibrated, we use the past year’s ensemble data from 8 of the TIGGE-reporting weather

WWRP THORPEX Alan Dickinson Chair THORPEX ICSC and David Burridge THORPEX IPO

Page 1 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble David Richardson Met Office, Exeter

Report from DAOS-WG - SoMASxs1.somas.stonybrook.edu/~na-thorpex/tigge...This highlights a general issue of challenges of sharing data internationally. c/o Seth Gutman, NOAA/ESRL Challenge

Application to Heavy Rainfall KYOUDA Masayuki Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 9 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting

Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Activity Prediction using TIGGE datasevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/JMAworkshop/3-1-2... · 2. Ensemble tropical cyclone activity prediction Motivation, Verification

Report from GIFS-TIGGE working group Richard Swinbank, and Young-Youn Park, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and other colleagues

Comparing TIGGE multi-model forecasts with reforecast … · 2019. 4. 24. · Page 1 of 48 Comparing TIGGE multi-model forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts

SF.2a: THORPEX/TIGGE applications to TC motion and forecasting

TIGGE LAM - World Meteorological Organization Extranet · The TIGGE LAM archive will continue to be maintained at ECMWF, ... Large ensemble ... WMO secretariat and ECMWF to arrange

Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Activity Prediction using TIGGE data

NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)xs1.somas.stonybrook.edu/~na-thorpex/documents/... · PROJECT OVERSIGHT JOINT TEAM MEMBERS Meteorological Research Branch MRB Peter

African THORPEX Status By Aida Diongue-Niang Senegal Meteorological Agency THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair ICSC-9, Geneve,

xs1.somas.stonybrook.eduxs1.somas.stonybrook.edu/~na-thorpex/TTISS/TTISS Program... · Web viewAndrew Snyder and Zhaoxia Pu (U. Utah): NOGAPS ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone

Report from GIFS-TIGGE working group Richard Swinbank, and Zoltan Toth, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and other colleagues Presentation

Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on