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Energy Technology
Perspectives 2020
A path for the decarbonisation
of the buildings sector
14 December 2020
Opening remarks
Head, Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Timur Gül
The IEA buildings technology work across four main deliverables
The IEA is unfolding a series of resources setting an ambitious pathway to reach the Paris Agreement and other Sustainable Development goals.
Tracking clean energy progress
Energy Technology Perspectives
Clean Technology guide
Tracking Clean
Energy ProgressAssessing critical energy technologies for global clean energy transitions
Special Report on Innovation
Opening remarks
Director, Sustainable Buildings and Cities, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
Roland Hunziker
Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 presentation
Co-leads, Buildings Energy Technology, Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Thibaut ABERGEL Chiara DELMASTRO
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Commitment to net-zero emissions is globalising
Countries responsible for around 60% of global energy-related CO2 emissions have formulated net-zero emissions ambitions in laws, legislation, policy documents or official discussions.
Share of energy-related CO2 emissions covered by national and supra-national public net-zero emissions targets
0
2
4
6
8
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GtC
O2
No target
Under discussion
In policy document
Proposed legislation
In law
Total emissions(right axis)
Carbon or climate
neutrality target
as of 01st September 2020as of 01st December 2020
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
The heavy direct and indirect buildings carbon footprint
The buildings sector is responsible for 35% of global final energy consumption and 38% of global CO2 emissions, when both operational and construction phases are accounted for.
Global share of buildings and construction final energy and emissions, 2019
Buildings construction industry5%
Other industry32%
Other5%
Transport28%
Non-residential8%
Residential22%
Buildings construction industry10%
Other industry32%
Other7%
Transport23%
Residential (direct)6%
Residential (indirect)11%
Non-residential (direct)3%
Non-residential (indirect)8%
Final energy CO2 emissions
35% 38%
Source: IEA (2020), Based on Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Around half of today’s buildings stock is likely still in use in 2050
…but floor area is expected to increase more than twofold in the period to 2070, which is equivalent to adding a city the size of Paris to the world every week.
Building stock by year of construction and share of stock that remains in 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
20
40
60
80
NorthAmerica
EuropeanUnion
China India Otheradvanced
Otheremerging
Share
of 2019 s
tock
mill
ion m
2
2010-2019
2000-2009
1990-1999
1980-1989
1970-1979
1960-1969
1945-1959
<1945
Remaining in 2050(right axis)
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
What do net-zero ambitions mean for buildings and construction?
• Deployment of early adoption technologies
Heat pumps, district energy, LEDs, rooftop PV, solar thermal and other technologies can not only deliver on emissions
reductions but also on job creation and energy expenditure savings in the COVID19 recovery context.
• Buildings integration in the energy system
Buildings need to support the transition of the power and industry sectors. In 2019, electricity use in buildings accounted for
nearly 19% of global CO2 emissions, and material use for construction and renovation accounted for another 10%
• Clean energy innovation
Despite a number of technologies being available on markets today, R&D needs to further enhance technology performance,
deliver on new services (e.g. demand response) and foster the development of new technologies (e.g. advanced cooling).
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Page 10IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
1.
Clean energy technology deployment
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Reaching net-zero requires a rapid decline of building emissions
The phase-out of fossil fuel, the deployment of high-efficiency electric equipment and the decarbonisation of the heat and power sectors together drive buildings-sector CO2 emissions to net-zero by 2070.
CO2 emissions from the use phase of buildings in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
By subsector
Non-residential (indirect) Non-residential (direct)
Residential (indirect) Residential (direct)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
By region
Rest of World India China European Union United States
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Electrification and energy efficiency are key
The share of electricity in final energy use grows to nearly 70% at net zero emissions, while the average buildings intensity is more than halved.
Buildings energy use and intensity in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070
0
40
80
120
160
0
40
80
120
160
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
kW
h/m
2
EJ
Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity Heat Hydrogen Bioenergy (traditional) Other renewables Intensity (right axis)
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Technology shifts are necessary to decarbonise heat
Decarbonizing heat in buildings requires increased coordination of measures to improve the building envelope and to deploy clean and efficient heating technologies.
Heating equipment sales share and share of NZEB in buildings stock by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2019 SDS2040
SDS2070
2019 SDS2040
SDS2070
2019 SDS2040
SDS2070
2019 SDS2040
SDS2070
2019 SDS2040
SDS2070
United States European Union China India World
Renewable equipment
District heat
Other electric and hybrid equipment
Electric heat pumps
Hydrogen boilers and fuel cells
Oil boilers
Natural gas boilers and heat pumps
Coal boilers
Share of NZEB
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Source: IEA (2020), Is cooling the future of heating?, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating. All rights reserved.
Decarbonisation strategies are highly geographically-dependent
Local thermal needs are at the heart of building decarbonisation strategies. A third of global population needs both heating and cooling and an additional 5 billion people will gain access to cooling by 2070.
Spillovers between air conditioners and heat pumps
Synergies between heating and cooling results in around 15% lower cost for heating equipment
Cumulative capacity and capital cost learning curve for vapour compression applications in the SDS
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
40
80
120
160
200
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Cost In
dex (
2019=
100)
TW
Capacity for heatingdemand
Capacity for coolingdemand
Capacity for heatingand cooling
Heat pump cost -without spillover
Heat pump cost - SDS
Page 16IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
2.1
Integration with power systems
A growing electricity demand met by intermittent sources
Variable renewables dominate the electricity generation mix in 2070 as emissions reach net-zero.
Global electricity use and generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2019 2040 2070
thou
san
d T
Wh
Other
Transport
Industry
Buildings
0
20
40
60
80
2019 2040 2070
thou
san
d T
Wh
Variable renewables
Hydro and bioenergy
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Electricity useElectricity generation
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Buildings hold both the potential and responsibility to provide flexibility services.
Cooling is one of the drivers of building electricity demand growth
The number of installed air conditioners could quadruple by 2070, but more efficient air-conditioners and building envelopes could halve electricity demand for cooling relative to baseline trends.
Global electricity use and generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70
Source: IEA (2020), IEA (2020), Is cooling the future of heating?, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating. All rights reserved.
Average number of air-conditioners per household by country relative to income per capita and heat-index cooling degree-days, 2020-2070
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Thermal demand is set to be driving the peak load in key regions
Growing cooling demand may lead to additional power capacity needs of more than 150 GW in China by 2030. Cooling storage systems and other flexibility measures need to address such variability in demand.
Cooling load profile in China, 2030(Cooling demand of the Sustainable Development Scenario)
0
100
200
300
400
0
GW
Hours of the year
Commercial cooling
Residential cooling
8 760
Low variable renewable generation
High variable renewablegeneration
Direct use of renewablesNeed for
storage &
flexibility
Coupling buildings and EVs to deliver flexibility services
Vehicle-to-grid services could unlock up to 600 GW of flexible capacity in 2030 (distributed across EV markets).600 GW represents nearly half of current hydropower capacity.
Vehicle-to-grid potential relative to total generation capacity, 2030(EV deployment of the Sustainable Development Scenario)
Note: V2G = Vehicle-to-grid
0
350
700
1050
1400
China India United States EuropeanUnion
China India United States EuropeanUnion
Peak capacity (average of the 10% of hours ofhighest electricity demand)
Off-peak capacity (average of the 90% of hours of lowestelectricity demand)
GW
Generation capacityneeds
0
350
700
1050
1400
China India United States EuropeanUnion
China India United States EuropeanUnion
Peak capacity (average of the 10% of hours ofhighest electricity demand)
Off-peak capacity (average of the 90% of hours of lowestelectricity demand)
GW
Variable renewables
Other generationcapacity needs
0
350
700
1050
1400
China India United States EuropeanUnion
China India United States EuropeanUnion
Peak capacity (average of the 10% of hours ofhighest electricity demand)
Off-peak capacity (average of the 90% of hours of lowestelectricity demand)
GW
Vehicle charging forV2G
Variable renewables
V2G potential
Other generationcapacity needs
Source: IEA (2020), Global Electric Vehicle Outlook. All rights reserved.
Page 21IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
2.2
Integration with material manufacturing value chains
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Embodied emissions rise due to growing floor area
Embodied emissions in the cement and steel used in buildings have increased sharply since 2000, with increased construction outweighing the effect of a fall in the carbon intensity of both materials.
Decomposition of CO2 emissions from steel and cement manufacturing for buildings construction, 2000-2020
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2000 Buildingsfactors
Industryfactors
2019 2020*
MtC
O2/y
r
Emissions Construction (floor space) Building frames Height Other Material CO₂ intensity
Cement
0
250
500
750
1 000
2000 Buildingsfactors
Industryfactors
2019 2020*
Steel
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Construction activity fell in the wake of the pandemic
Material demand is strongly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic; residential construction activity could decline by up to around 15% in 2020 relative to 2019, depending on the country.
Projected year-to-year growth of residential construction activity in 2020 relative to 2019
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Canada UnitedStates
Japan UnitedKingdom
France Germany Italy EUNordics
Other EU China India
Gro
wth
ra
te
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Embodied carbon is harder to abate than use phase emissions
Despite reductions in material use and material manufacturing emissions, the share of cement- and steel-related emissions in total buildings emissions jumps from less than a fifth today to 40% by the 2060s.
CO2 emissions in the buildings and construction value chain in the Sustainable Development Scenario
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
Buildings use phase
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity and heat
Buildings construction
Construction energy use
Material manufacturing
Cement and steelmanufacturingShare of cement and steelmanufacturing
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018
Sustainable action needs to be stimulated along value chains
Material efficiency measures contribute to around a third of the total reduction in emissions by 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario.
World cement- and steel-related CO2 emissions in the buildings construction sector by scenario and driver
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
Cement
Material manufacturingLifetime extensionPrecasting, prefabrication, reuse, recycling, material propertiesStructural optimisation
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Steel
STEPS
SDS SDS
STEPS
Material efficiency
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Page 26IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
3. Innovation
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Deployment is a priority, but innovation remains necessary
Three quarters of necessary emissions reductions could be achieved through the use of mature and early adoption technologies, but further innovation is also required to achieve the full decarbonisation of heating and cooling.
Cumulative global buildings sector emissions reduction by maturity category in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2020-2070
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Heating Cooling Other end-uses
GtC
O2
Mature Early adoption Demonstration Large prototype
Building energy storage and integration in theETP Clean Energy Technology Guide
The ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide contains information for over 400 individual technology designs and components across the whole energy system that contribute to achieving net-zero emissions.
Buildings technologies
Source: IEA (2020), ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide, https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide. All rights reserved.
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Greater adoption relies on innovation
The deployment of heat pumping technologies is closely linked to innovation as they need to be scalable and suitable to many buildings, climate and operating conditions.
Heat pumping technology deployment by market segment in the Sustainable Development Scenario in 2030
0
3
6
9
12
15
All (SDS) Integrated (heating,cooling, storage)[Large prototype]
Advanced vapourcompression
[Demonstration]
Non-vapourcompression
[Early adoption]
Cold-climate[Early adoption]
Hot and humidclimate
[Early adoption]
In renovatedbuildings
[Early adoption]
TW
of th
erm
al o
utp
ut
Heating only Heating and cooling Cooling only Innovative
Innovation needs in the buildings sector
• Packaged multi-service solutions
To exploit synergies between technologies and deliver cost reduction and performance improvements.
• Integration among different end-uses
To exploit the and maximize the synergies of different services.
• Solutions tailored to local conditions
To guarantee high perfomances in all climates and buildings stock conditions
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
Reaching net-zero by 2050: the Faster Innovation Case
Global energy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 by sector
In the Faster Innovation Case, in buildings, accelerated innovation in space cooling technologies, which also benefits the heating sector, contribute up to 60% of total annual emissions reductions in buildings.
Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
SDS Faster Innovation Case
GtC
O2/y
r
Other transformation
Power
Industry
Transport
Buildings
Agriculture
Total
Conclusions
• Tackle emissions from existing buildings.
• Strengthen markets for clean technologies at early stage of adoption.
• Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment.
• Boost support for research, development and demonstration.
• Expand international technology collaboration along material and energy value chains.
Page 33IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Questions & Answers
Panel discussion
Manager,Science-based
targets,WBCSD
Henk KranenbergCécile Faraud Tianzhen HongLuca De Giovanetti
Manager,Clean Construction
Programme, C40
Deputy Head,Building Technologies
Department,LBNL
Senior Manager, Environmental
Research,Daikin & Eurovent Board
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