Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 · 2020. 12. 22. · Thibaut ABERGEL Chiara DELMASTRO | Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018 Commitment to net-zero

Page 1

Energy Technology

Perspectives 2020

A path for the decarbonisation

of the buildings sector

14 December 2020

Opening remarks

Head, Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency (IEA)

Timur Gül

The IEA buildings technology work across four main deliverables

The IEA is unfolding a series of resources setting an ambitious pathway to reach the Paris Agreement and other Sustainable Development goals.

Tracking clean energy progress

Energy Technology Perspectives

Clean Technology guide

Tracking Clean

Energy ProgressAssessing critical energy technologies for global clean energy transitions

Special Report on Innovation

https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pumps

https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020

https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide

https://webstore.iea.org/energy-technology-perspectives-2020-special-report-on-clean-energy-innovation

Opening remarks

Director, Sustainable Buildings and Cities, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)

Roland Hunziker

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 presentation

Co-leads, Buildings Energy Technology, Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency (IEA)

Thibaut ABERGEL Chiara DELMASTRO

| Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018

Commitment to net-zero emissions is globalising

Countries responsible for around 60% of global energy-related CO2 emissions have formulated net-zero emissions ambitions in laws, legislation, policy documents or official discussions.

Share of energy-related CO2 emissions covered by national and supra-national public net-zero emissions targets

0

2

4

6

8

10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GtC

O2

No target

Under discussion

In policy document

Proposed legislation

In law

Total emissions(right axis)

Carbon or climate

neutrality target

as of 01st September 2020as of 01st December 2020

Source: IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.


The heavy direct and indirect buildings carbon footprint

The buildings sector is responsible for 35% of global final energy consumption and 38% of global CO2 emissions, when both operational and construction phases are accounted for.

Global share of buildings and construction final energy and emissions, 2019

Buildings construction industry5%

Other industry32%

Other5%

Transport28%

Non-residential8%

Residential22%

Buildings construction industry10%

Other industry32%

Other7%

Transport23%

Residential (direct)6%

Residential (indirect)11%

Non-residential (direct)3%

Non-residential (indirect)8%

Final energy CO2 emissions

35% 38%

Source: IEA (2020), Based on Energy Technology Perspectives. All rights reserved.

Around half of today’s buildings stock is likely still in use in 2050

…but floor area is expected to increase more than twofold in the period to 2070, which is equivalent to adding a city the size of Paris to the world every week.

Building stock by year of construction and share of stock that remains in 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

20

40

60

80

NorthAmerica

EuropeanUnion

China India Otheradvanced

Otheremerging

Share

of 2019 s

tock

mill

ion m

2

2010-2019

2000-2009

1990-1999

1980-1989

1970-1979

1960-1969

1945-1959

<1945

Remaining in 2050(right axis)


What do net-zero ambitions mean for buildings and construction?

• Deployment of early adoption technologies

Heat pumps, district energy, LEDs, rooftop PV, solar thermal and other technologies can not only deliver on emissions

reductions but also on job creation and energy expenditure savings in the COVID19 recovery context.

• Buildings integration in the energy system

Buildings need to support the transition of the power and industry sectors. In 2019, electricity use in buildings accounted for

nearly 19% of global CO2 emissions, and material use for construction and renovation accounted for another 10%

• Clean energy innovation

Despite a number of technologies being available on markets today, R&D needs to further enhance technology performance,

deliver on new services (e.g. demand response) and foster the development of new technologies (e.g. advanced cooling).


Page 10IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

1.

Clean energy technology deployment


Reaching net-zero requires a rapid decline of building emissions

The phase-out of fossil fuel, the deployment of high-efficiency electric equipment and the decarbonisation of the heat and power sectors together drive buildings-sector CO2 emissions to net-zero by 2070.

CO2 emissions from the use phase of buildings in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

By subsector

Non-residential (indirect) Non-residential (direct)

Residential (indirect) Residential (direct)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

By region

Rest of World India China European Union United States



Electrification and energy efficiency are key

The share of electricity in final energy use grows to nearly 70% at net zero emissions, while the average buildings intensity is more than halved.

Buildings energy use and intensity in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070

0

40

80

120

160

0

40

80

120

160

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

kW

h/m

2

EJ

Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity Heat Hydrogen Bioenergy (traditional) Other renewables Intensity (right axis)



Technology shifts are necessary to decarbonise heat

Decarbonizing heat in buildings requires increased coordination of measures to improve the building envelope and to deploy clean and efficient heating technologies.

Heating equipment sales share and share of NZEB in buildings stock by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2019 SDS2040

SDS2070

2019 SDS2040

SDS2070

2019 SDS2040

SDS2070

2019 SDS2040

SDS2070

2019 SDS2040

SDS2070

United States European Union China India World

Renewable equipment

District heat

Other electric and hybrid equipment

Electric heat pumps

Hydrogen boilers and fuel cells

Oil boilers

Natural gas boilers and heat pumps

Coal boilers

Share of NZEB


Source: IEA (2020), Is cooling the future of heating?, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating. All rights reserved.

Decarbonisation strategies are highly geographically-dependent

Local thermal needs are at the heart of building decarbonisation strategies. A third of global population needs both heating and cooling and an additional 5 billion people will gain access to cooling by 2070.

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating

Spillovers between air conditioners and heat pumps

Synergies between heating and cooling results in around 15% lower cost for heating equipment

Cumulative capacity and capital cost learning curve for vapour compression applications in the SDS


0

20

40

60

80

100

0

40

80

120

160

200

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Cost In

dex (

2019=

100)

TW

Capacity for heatingdemand

Capacity for coolingdemand

Capacity for heatingand cooling

Heat pump cost -without spillover

Heat pump cost - SDS


2.1

Integration with power systems

A growing electricity demand met by intermittent sources

Variable renewables dominate the electricity generation mix in 2070 as emissions reach net-zero.

Global electricity use and generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2019 2040 2070

thou

san

d T

Wh

Other

Transport

Industry

Buildings

0

20

40

60

80

2019 2040 2070

thou

san

d T

Wh

Variable renewables

Hydro and bioenergy

Nuclear

Fossil fuels

Electricity useElectricity generation


Buildings hold both the potential and responsibility to provide flexibility services.

Cooling is one of the drivers of building electricity demand growth

The number of installed air conditioners could quadruple by 2070, but more efficient air-conditioners and building envelopes could halve electricity demand for cooling relative to baseline trends.

Global electricity use and generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70

Source: IEA (2020), IEA (2020), Is cooling the future of heating?, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating. All rights reserved.

Average number of air-conditioners per household by country relative to income per capita and heat-index cooling degree-days, 2020-2070

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/is-cooling-the-future-of-heating


Thermal demand is set to be driving the peak load in key regions

Growing cooling demand may lead to additional power capacity needs of more than 150 GW in China by 2030. Cooling storage systems and other flexibility measures need to address such variability in demand.

Cooling load profile in China, 2030(Cooling demand of the Sustainable Development Scenario)

0

100

200

300

400

0

GW

Hours of the year

Commercial cooling

Residential cooling

8 760

Low variable renewable generation

High variable renewablegeneration

Direct use of renewablesNeed for

storage &

flexibility

Coupling buildings and EVs to deliver flexibility services

Vehicle-to-grid services could unlock up to 600 GW of flexible capacity in 2030 (distributed across EV markets).600 GW represents nearly half of current hydropower capacity.

Vehicle-to-grid potential relative to total generation capacity, 2030(EV deployment of the Sustainable Development Scenario)

Note: V2G = Vehicle-to-grid

0

350

700

1050

1400

China India United States EuropeanUnion


Peak capacity (average of the 10% of hours ofhighest electricity demand)

Off-peak capacity (average of the 90% of hours of lowestelectricity demand)

GW

Generation capacityneeds

0

350

700

1050

1400





GW

Variable renewables

Other generationcapacity needs

0

350

700

1050

1400





GW

Vehicle charging forV2G

Variable renewables

V2G potential

Other generationcapacity needs

Source: IEA (2020), Global Electric Vehicle Outlook. All rights reserved.


2.2

Integration with material manufacturing value chains


Embodied emissions rise due to growing floor area

Embodied emissions in the cement and steel used in buildings have increased sharply since 2000, with increased construction outweighing the effect of a fall in the carbon intensity of both materials.

Decomposition of CO2 emissions from steel and cement manufacturing for buildings construction, 2000-2020

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2000 Buildingsfactors

Industryfactors

2019 2020*

MtC

O2/y

r

Emissions Construction (floor space) Building frames Height Other Material CO₂ intensity

Cement

0

250

500

750

1 000

2000 Buildingsfactors

Industryfactors

2019 2020*

Steel



Construction activity fell in the wake of the pandemic

Material demand is strongly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic; residential construction activity could decline by up to around 15% in 2020 relative to 2019, depending on the country.

Projected year-to-year growth of residential construction activity in 2020 relative to 2019

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Canada UnitedStates

Japan UnitedKingdom

France Germany Italy EUNordics

Other EU China India

Gro

wth

ra

te



Embodied carbon is harder to abate than use phase emissions

Despite reductions in material use and material manufacturing emissions, the share of cement- and steel-related emissions in total buildings emissions jumps from less than a fifth today to 40% by the 2060s.

CO2 emissions in the buildings and construction value chain in the Sustainable Development Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

Buildings use phase

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Electricity and heat

Buildings construction

Construction energy use

Material manufacturing

Cement and steelmanufacturingShare of cement and steelmanufacturing



Sustainable action needs to be stimulated along value chains

Material efficiency measures contribute to around a third of the total reduction in emissions by 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario.

World cement- and steel-related CO2 emissions in the buildings construction sector by scenario and driver

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

Cement

Material manufacturingLifetime extensionPrecasting, prefabrication, reuse, recycling, material propertiesStructural optimisation

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Steel

STEPS

SDS SDS

STEPS

Material efficiency



3. Innovation


Deployment is a priority, but innovation remains necessary

Three quarters of necessary emissions reductions could be achieved through the use of mature and early adoption technologies, but further innovation is also required to achieve the full decarbonisation of heating and cooling.

Cumulative global buildings sector emissions reduction by maturity category in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2020-2070

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Heating Cooling Other end-uses

GtC

O2

Mature Early adoption Demonstration Large prototype

Building energy storage and integration in theETP Clean Energy Technology Guide

The ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide contains information for over 400 individual technology designs and components across the whole energy system that contribute to achieving net-zero emissions.

Buildings technologies

Source: IEA (2020), ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide, https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide. All rights reserved.

https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide


Greater adoption relies on innovation

The deployment of heat pumping technologies is closely linked to innovation as they need to be scalable and suitable to many buildings, climate and operating conditions.

Heat pumping technology deployment by market segment in the Sustainable Development Scenario in 2030

0

3

6

9

12

15

All (SDS) Integrated (heating,cooling, storage)[Large prototype]

Advanced vapourcompression

[Demonstration]

Non-vapourcompression

[Early adoption]

Cold-climate[Early adoption]

Hot and humidclimate

[Early adoption]

In renovatedbuildings

[Early adoption]

TW

of th

erm

al o

utp

ut

Heating only Heating and cooling Cooling only Innovative

Innovation needs in the buildings sector

• Packaged multi-service solutions

To exploit synergies between technologies and deliver cost reduction and performance improvements.

• Integration among different end-uses

To exploit the and maximize the synergies of different services.

• Solutions tailored to local conditions

To guarantee high perfomances in all climates and buildings stock conditions


Reaching net-zero by 2050: the Faster Innovation Case

Global energy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 by sector

In the Faster Innovation Case, in buildings, accelerated innovation in space cooling technologies, which also benefits the heating sector, contribute up to 60% of total annual emissions reductions in buildings.


- 4

- 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

SDS Faster Innovation Case

GtC

O2/y

r

Other transformation

Power

Industry

Transport

Buildings

Agriculture

Total

Conclusions

• Tackle emissions from existing buildings.

• Strengthen markets for clean technologies at early stage of adoption.

• Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment.

• Boost support for research, development and demonstration.

• Expand international technology collaboration along material and energy value chains.


Questions & Answers

Panel discussion

Manager,Science-based

targets,WBCSD

Henk KranenbergCécile Faraud Tianzhen HongLuca De Giovanetti

Manager,Clean Construction

Programme, C40

Deputy Head,Building Technologies

Department,LBNL

Senior Manager, Environmental

Research,Daikin & Eurovent Board

Documents

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 · 2020. 12. 22. · Thibaut ABERGEL Chiara DELMASTRO | Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018 Commitment to net-zero