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© BP p.l.c. 2018
BP Energy Outlook2018 edition
William ZimmernLead Economist Energy Transitions
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Agenda
2
• Today’s energy landscape
• Future energy trends
• Key questions
• Q&A
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Today’s energy landscape
© BP p.l.c. 2018
The transport sector made up what proportion of global primary energy demand in 2016?
A. 20%
B. 50%
C. 75%
Question 1
© BP p.l.c. 2018
The transport sector made up what proportion of global primary energy demand in 2016?
A. 20%
B. 50%
C. 75%
Question 1
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Passenger cars made up what proportion of liquids (oil) demand in 2016?
A. 20%
B. 50%
C. 80%
Question 2
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Passenger cars made up what proportion of liquids (oil) demand in 2016?
A. 20%
B. 50%
C. 80%
Question 2
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Primary energy demand by end-use sector
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016
45%
6%
29%
20%
Domestic & commercial buildings, agriculture
Cars, trucks, aviation, shipping
Petrochemicals, lubricants etc
Energy used in the industrial sector
© BP p.l.c. 2018
BP Energy Outlook2018 edition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
2016 ET ICEban
Lessgas
switch
REpush
FT EFT
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition (ET)Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban)Less gas switchingRenewables push (RE push)Faster transition (FT)Even faster transition (EFT)
2040
Alternative scenarios
Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2
10
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Conventional
LNG
Russian pipeline
11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
World China India Africa OECD Other
Productivity
Population
1990-2016
2016-2040
Economic backdrop
GDP growth by region and factor
% per annum
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20 Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
0
5
10
15
20Renewables
Hydro
NuclearCoal
Gas
Oil
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20Transport
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Three windows on the energy transition
12
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Region
13
Primary energy consumption by region Primary energy growth and regional contributions
% per annum
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
Billion toe
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Fuel
14
Shares of primary energy
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil GasCoal NuclearHydro Renewables
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Diversified fuel mix
15
Shares of primary energy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Oil
Gas
Coal
Non-fossil
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Key questions
16
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• What does this mean for carbon emissions?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Key questions
17
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• What does this mean for carbon emissions?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Electric vehicles
18*Internal combustion engine
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Electric vehicles
19*Internal combustion engine
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Electricity
Gas
Liquids
Trillion km
Car kilometres by fuel type
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars
20
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Electric car sales as a share of total car sales
Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricityShareShare
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars
Carbon emissions from energy
Billion tonnes CO2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
2016 ET ICE ban
Number of EV’s
Billion
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
Even faster transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars
Carbon emissions from energy
Billion tonnes CO2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
2016 ET ICE ban
Number of EV’s
Billion
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transitionICE banEven faster transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Key questions
23
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• What does this mean for carbon emissions?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels
24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Cars TrucksNon-road Non-combustedIndustry BuildingsPower
Liquids demand
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
2005- 2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
Power Buildings
Industry Non-combusted
Transport Total
Mb/d, average annual growthMb/d
Liquids demand growth
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Liquids demand
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Supply with no investment
Liquids demand
(3% decline rate)
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Key questions
27
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• What does this mean for carbon emissions?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Impact of faster transition on global energy
28
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
0
10
20
30
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20
2016 ET FT EFT
Renew.
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
2040
Primary energy consumption under different scenarios
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Appendix
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Oil (1877)
Gas (1899)
Coal ()
Nuclear (1974)
Hydro (1922)
Renewables (2008)
Years from reaching 1% share
% Share
Shares of global primary energy
Energy transitions are measured in decades
30
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Oil (1877)
Gas (1899)
Nuclear (1974)
Hydro (1922)
Renewables (2008)
(projected)
Years from reaching 1% share
% Share
Shares of global primary energy
Energy transitions are measured in decades
31
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Oil (1877)
Gas (1899)
Nuclear (1974)
Hydro (1922)
Renewables (2008)
ET
EFT
Years from reaching 1% share
% Share
Shares of global primary energy
Energy transitions are measured in decades
32
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