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Energy Dialogue: Transport 20 th September 2006. Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Energy Dialogue: Transport. The Energy Review Historic Trends Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
CRedcarbon reduction
Energy Dialogue: Transport
20th September 2006
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA
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CRedcarbon reduction
Energy Dialogue: Transport
• The Energy Review
• Historic Trends
• Technical Issues• Fuel Efficiency
• New Fuels
• The Social Dimension• How important is it?
• New Ideas
• Conclusions
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CRedcarbon reduction
• Just 3.2% of Review but Transport is 33.1% of energy demand
• Mostly what has been done
• Limited on future measures
• Has major omissions
The Energy Review
Band G covers a broad rangeBase taxation directly on carbon emission?
but much with a positive spin.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 100 200 300 400 500 600CO2 Emissions (g/km)
Em
issi
on C
ateg
ory G
FEDCBA
Petrol
0
2
4
6
8
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
CO2 Emissions (g/km)
Em
issi
on C
ateg
ory
Diesel
Data from Vehicle Emissions Database
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CRedcarbon reduction
Historic Trends: Personal Mobility
• Increase in personal mobility by ~400% in 50 years• Mostly by car journeys• Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed )• Nearly 50% increase in rail travel since privatisation
– represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of CO2 per annum compared to road.
0
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1952
1956
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2003
bill
ion
pass
enge
r ki
lom
etre
s
buses and coaches cars and vans
other rail
air
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10
20
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60
1952
1956
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1999
2003
bill
ion
pas
sen
ger
kilo
met
res
Privatisation
If this travel is replacing road travel!!
Will investment in public transport necessarily reduce car journeys?
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CRedcarbon reduction
Historic Trends: Freight
• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:– 223% since 1960– 20% since 1990
• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Tra
nsp
ort
of g
oods
km
/ton
ne
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CRedcarbon reduction
Private Motoring
• Components of Energy Demand in personal transport.
• Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency improvements until 1990.
• Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in balance.
• Need to reduce further increases in mobility if CO2 is to be reduced significantly.
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800
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1200
140019
64
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Ene
rgy
(PJ)
Fuel Efficiency
vehicle ownership
distance travelled
Fuel Efficiency
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MJ/
km
0
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bill
ion
Veh
icle
km
Personal mobility
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CRedcarbon reduction
Energy Efficiency Trends
Average Engine Size of Cars
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Eng
ine
Size
(ccs
)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
<700 700 -1000
1000 -1200
1200 -1500
1500 -1800
1800 -2000
2000 -2500
2500 -3000
> 3000
Engine Size (ccs)
1994
2004
Vehicles available - 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
A B C D E F G
Emission Classification
Diesel
Petrol
Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005.
Mean CO2 emissions – voluntary targets will not reach 140 g/km by 2008/09
Trends in car engine size
Consequence of increase in engine size is 2.9 Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum.
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CRedcarbon reduction
Percentage of models available compared to social desire.
-ve means less models on market than people intending to buy.
Size of Car Engines in Market 2006
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1200
1400
1600
<1000 1000 -1300
1300 -1600
1600 -2000
2000 -2500
2500 -3000
> 3000
Engine Size (ccs)
Nu
mb
er o
f M
od
els
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<1000 1000-1300
1300-1600
1600-1800
1800-2000
2000-2500
2500-3000
>3000
Engine Size (ccs)
per
cen
tage
Size of Choice according to survey
Data: Vehicle Emission DatabaseDepartment of Transport Report: “Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty”
<1000 1000 - 1300
1003 - 1600
1600 - 2000
2000 - 2500
2500 - 3000
>3000
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CRedcarbon reduction
Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour
• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris
• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.
• Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%%
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10
20
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Average Speed (mph)
(m
pg)
Driver 1
Driver 2
• A small car emits: equivalent of 1 party balloon every 60m.
• Driving just 1.6 miles emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour.
Raising Awareness
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CRedcarbon reduction
Technical Issues: New Fuels• Biofuels: one part of the solution in near term with Fuel Cells in longer
Term??
Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have a major impact in reducing CO2 from transport.
However, other studies give differing results and clarity and robustness of methodolgy is needed – including “Real Road Tests”
Biofuel Options• Biogas• Bioethanol (5% or 85%)• Biodiesel (5% to 100%)• Vegetable oil
• Benefit > Reduced CO2 and other emissions?
020406080
100120140160180200
biod
iese
l
beet
beet
+ h
eat
whe
at +
CH
P
Et:
was
te w
ood
Syn
dies
el
DM
E
coal
woo
d
win
d
nucl
ear
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(g/k
m)
hybridsconventional
petrol and diesel
bioethanol second generation fuels Bio-reactors
fuel cells
Overall CO2 emissions for different fuels/production methods/power trains.
Based on CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy Taylor
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CRedcarbon reduction
Launch of BioEthanol in UK: Norwich 15th March 2006
Planning is needed both for vehicles and infrastructure
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CRedcarbon reduction
Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry 2004
• Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel, fuel consumption remained the same
0
0.5
1
1.5
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2.5
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3.5
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4.5
23 May 22 Jun 22 Jul 21 Aug 20 Sep
km
/ltr
5% 20%
50% 35%
First trials ever of fuel economy ‘on the road’ using biodiesel8 Volvo FH12 Trucks: 5%, 20%, 35%, 50% biodiesel blends
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CRedcarbon reduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
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3.5
4
02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep
km/l
tr
Driver 1
Driver 2
• Driver behaviour can affect performance• Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel than driver 1
Biodiesel Trials – Banham PoultryDriver behaviour
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CRedcarbon reduction
• Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to 60% saving– Using 50% uvo biodiesel (~40% saving)
– Advanced driver training (~15% saving): cumulative ~49%
– Better route/load planning (~10% saving): cumulative ~54%
– More fuel-efficient trucks (~10% saving): cumulative ~59%
Total CO2 saving ~59%
• However– Widespread availability of biodiesel at this concentration and new trucks will
take time
• Other actions could be taken in shorter time scale– Advanced driver training (~15% saving):
– Better route/load planning (~10% saving):
Total CO2 saving ~24%
Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry
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CRedcarbon reduction
• In UK it is 5% substitution of biofuels by volume. Should it be 5% by energy?
• Will the buy out money necessarily end up promoting UK projects as with Renewable Obligation?
• Significant quantities of wheat are exported which could be used for bioethanol.
• Land Area required for 5% by volume– ~10000 – 12000 sq km (similar to NFU figure of 1.2 Mha)
– or 4-5% of total land area of UK.
area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of Cambridgeshire combined
• Opportunities for use of co-products- animal feed/power generation
• What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is land area requirement sustainable?
Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation for 2010
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CRedcarbon reduction
Personal Mobility: Does Public Transport reduce car travel?
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000
annual car distance (km)
tota
l ann
ual d
ista
nce
(km
)
UK
D
More use of car > more total distance travelled.
Greater distance by train > greater use of car.
Compare UK with Germany
switch UK car journeys to public transport at German levels. saving by train 1.01 M tonnes saving by bus 0.74 M tonnesReducing mobility desire 9.22 M tonnesSuggests overriding issue is increased desire for mobility rather
than significant switching of mode of transport.
8000
8500
9000
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600 700 800 900 1000
train distance (km)
car
dist
ance
(km
)
D
UK
6000
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9000
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Train distance (km)
Car
dis
tan
ce (
km
)
D
UK
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CRedcarbon reduction
Investment in Public Transport• Invest in Public Transport and get people
out of their cars?
• Norwich Orbital bus scheme - £1.2 million
• Links railway station, hospital, University, City Centre with places near Ring Road.
• Not that popular yet. People still using their cars. Fare £1.65 return car park charges at hospital often considerably more.
Smart Dynamic Bus Routing? • Bus Service A > B• People at C not served• Divert route via C
– increased journey times less popular with A > B, particularly if people only occasionally get on at C.
• Dynamic Routing on demand extension of Trinidad Route Bus System
A
B
C
• Mobile phone SMS• Intelligent bus stops
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CRedcarbon reduction
Social Issues: Lift SharingOur congested roads are full of empty seats
The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.comis based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2
52 million km shared each year.
Car travel (2004 statistics):• 679 billion passenger kilometres• 398 billion vehicle kilometres
Average occupancy 1.71.Raising this to an average of 2 would save
9.9 Mtonnes CO2.
Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport.
Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.
CRedcarbon reduction
Social Issues: First car share club in East Anglia
EDP, June 2, 2006
However, some research of Cambridge scheme by Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is additional use not replacement use.
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CRedcarbon reduction
Providing Public with more information
• Impact of carbon emissions
• Petrol receipt from Denmark
• Individuals often go for budget airlines for the cheap weekend break in Europe. Is this rational?
• e.g. Paris for weekend break
29th Sept - 2nd Oct 27th Oct - 30th Oct
BMIBaby EasyJet Eurostar BMIBaby EasyJet Eurostar
Return Tickets £95.00 £86.18 £124.00 £9.00 £56.58 £79.00
Airport Taxes £55.20 £14.50 £55.20 £14.50
London>Airport £8.00 £22.40 £8.00 £22.40
CDG > Gare du Nord £13.00 £13.00 £13.00 £13.00
Total £171.20 £136.08 £124.00 £85.20 £106.48 £79.00
Total Time 04:05 04:15 03:00 04:05 04:15 03:00
Prices as per respective WEB Sites on 19th Sept. 2006
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CRedcarbon reduction
Conclusions• Significant opportunities exist for reducing CO2 using biofuels.
• Government needs clearer statements on its commitments: e.g.RTFO.
• Why not a requirement of 5% by energy content?
• Where will buy out money go?
• Will it promote industry in UK?
• Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from increased RTFO?
• Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more effectively
• Reverse trend towards large engine cars
• Revisit the banding system and related taxation
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
• Social Dimension must not be overlooked.– Better education/awareness - driver behaviour.– Address issue of continual increases in desire for mobility.
Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to reduce CO2?
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