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Energy and EnergyResources: Carbon DioxidePerspective
A.R. Kovscek
Stanford University
Energy Resources Engineering
Stanford, CA 94305-2220
Outline
• A half century of economic growth
• What does a fully developed Chinalook like?
• Strategies for managing carbondioxide emissions
• Closing thoughts
A half century of economic growth
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48
S1
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
per c
ap
ita G
DP
(2
00
0 $
)
year
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
coal
0
1
2
3
4
5
ind
ex,
year 1
tota
l =
1
year
coal
total
Growth has demanded energyPrimary Energy
Coal dominates energy portfolioDistribution at end of half century
Primary Energy
coal
natural gas
petroleum
renewables
“…first take the log outof your own eye, andthen you will seeclearly to take thespeck out of yourneighbor’s eye.”
U.S.A. 1850-1900
So what about China?Primary Energy 1971-2004,http://www.iea.org
1
2
3
4
Inde
x, t
otal
197
1 =
1
Electricity generation by “fuel”kWh
Coal Reserves–2000
U.S.A.
25%
Australia
8%India
9%
Africa
6%
Russia
16%
Rest of
World
24%
China
12%
Sedimentary Basins of ChinaCoal Resource/Primary Energy = 2090 years
What does a fully developed Chinalook like from an energy perspective?
“We even see huge brown cloudsof sulfur making their way acrossthe ocean… The haze in L.A. is notjust from L.A. anymore." LisaMastny, Worldwatch Instituteproject director.
Shanghai
2005: 6000 coal mine fatalities
-12 fatalities per million tons
2006: 4800 coal mine fatalities
Li Yizhong Director Administration of Work Safety,http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-12-21-voa9.cfm
Economy and Energy2005 Statistics
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
energy (MJ) per person per year
$G
DP
per c
ap
ita
China (28 MJ/$GDP)
Mexico (9.1 MJ/$GDP)
European Union (5.8 MJ/$GDP)
Japan (5.2 MJ/$GDP)
U.S.A.(8.9 MJ/$GDP)
Economy and Energy2005 Statistics
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
energy (MJ) per person per year
$G
DP
per c
ap
ita
China (28 MJ/$GDP)
Mexico (9.1 MJ/$GDP)
European Union (5.8 MJ/$GDP)
Japan (5.2 MJ/$GDP)
U.S.A.(8.9 MJ/$GDP)
$GDP“developed”
beginning of industrialization
ideal path
Projected CO2 Emissions“Kaya Identity”
CO2 Emissions = (Population)*(GDP/person)*
(Energy/GDP)*(CO2/energy)
carbon intensity
energy intensity
standard of living
• 2025– 1.48 billion people
– $6800 per capita
– 8.9 MJ/$GDP
– 7.5x10-8 kgCO2/J
• 2050– 1.52 billion people
– $27,200 per capita
– 8.9 MJ/$GDP
– 7.5x10-8 kgCO2/J
Projected CO2 Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
ind
ex,
US
A 2
00
5 =
1
2005 2025 2050
USA
China
Strategies for Reducing CO2 Emissions
• Change fuel mix (switch coal to gas)
• Nuclear
• Energy efficiency
• Geological CO2 sequestration
• Renewables– hydro
– wind
– biogas
LifecycleCO2EmissionsfromElectricityGeneration
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
coal oil
nat
ura
l gas
hyd
ro
geo
ther
mal
sola
rw
ind
nuclea
r
g C
O2 /
kW
h
Fuel Mix
Fuel Mix: Petroleum
China
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
year
mil
llio
n b
arrels
per d
ay production
consumption
World
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
year
rate
(Bbbl/
yr) conservative prediction
best prediction
actual data
Energy EfficiencyUse Japanese Efficiency of 5 MJ/$GDP, same fuelmix as today
0
1
2
3
4
5
ind
ex,
US
A 2
00
5 =
1
2005 2025 2050
USA
China
Geological Storage of CO2Efficiency goes down
<2% of Emissions to 2050
20-45% of Emissions to 205020-500 % of Emissions to 2050
20-185% of Emissions to 2050
45% of Emissions to 2050
90% of Emissions to 2050
IEA: Comparative potentials at storage costs of up to $20/t CO2 Source: Freund, IEASource: Parson & Keith, Science 282, 1053-1054, 1998
Renewable Energy Law• took effect Jan 1, 2007
• 15% renewable energy by 2020 (2 times current)
• $180 billion investment
• $0.03 per kWhr subsidy
• includes large hydropower
Three Gorges (18,200 MW Projected)Inner Mongolia
Hydroelectric Potential of China• 378-540 GW
potential = 15-22 timesBonnevillePowerAdministration
• currentutilization isabout 25%
• by 2020, about50% utilization
• ~12 powerplants on upperYangtze River
Top Ten Problems of the World(Richard Smalley 1996 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry)
1. Energy • Water
• Food
• Environment
• Poverty
• Terrorism/war
• Disease
• Education
• Democracy
• Population
Some or all of theseproblems are solvedif economic,environmentallyacceptable, energysources are found
{
Technical Resources
• Halldór Ármannsson, “ CO2 Emissions from Geothermal Plants,”International Geothermal Conference, Reykjavík, Sept. 2003
Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov
• International Energy Agency, www.iea.org
• “Kaya Identity”: Energy Conv. and Management 36, 375-380, 1995.
• Kexi Pan, The Depth Distribution of Chinese Coal Resource, GCEPInternational Workshop, Beijing China, Aug 23, 2005.
• Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection,http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/
• Xuemin, C. and Chengchang, Z., “China’s Hydropower and ItsUtilization, Geojournal 10(2) 1985, 141-149.
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