Energy and EnergyResources: Carbon DioxidePerspective

A.R. Kovscek

Stanford University

Energy Resources Engineering

Stanford, CA 94305-2220

Outline

• A half century of economic growth

• What does a fully developed Chinalook like?

• Strategies for managing carbondioxide emissions

• Closing thoughts

A half century of economic growth

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48

S1

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

per c

ap

ita G

DP

(2

00

0 $

)

year

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

coal

0

1

2

3

4

5

ind

ex,

year 1

tota

l =

1

year

coal

total

Growth has demanded energyPrimary Energy

Coal dominates energy portfolioDistribution at end of half century

Primary Energy

coal

natural gas

petroleum

renewables

“…first take the log outof your own eye, andthen you will seeclearly to take thespeck out of yourneighbor’s eye.”

U.S.A. 1850-1900

So what about China?Primary Energy 1971-2004,http://www.iea.org

1

2

3

4

Inde

x, t

otal

197

1 =

1

Electricity generation by “fuel”kWh

Coal Reserves–2000

U.S.A.

25%

Australia

8%India

9%

Africa

6%

Russia

16%

Rest of

World

24%

China

12%

Sedimentary Basins of ChinaCoal Resource/Primary Energy = 2090 years

What does a fully developed Chinalook like from an energy perspective?

“We even see huge brown cloudsof sulfur making their way acrossthe ocean… The haze in L.A. is notjust from L.A. anymore." LisaMastny, Worldwatch Instituteproject director.

Shanghai

2005: 6000 coal mine fatalities

-12 fatalities per million tons

2006: 4800 coal mine fatalities

Li Yizhong Director Administration of Work Safety,http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-12-21-voa9.cfm

Economy and Energy2005 Statistics

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000

energy (MJ) per person per year

$G

DP

per c

ap

ita

China (28 MJ/$GDP)

Mexico (9.1 MJ/$GDP)

European Union (5.8 MJ/$GDP)

Japan (5.2 MJ/$GDP)

U.S.A.(8.9 MJ/$GDP)

Economy and Energy2005 Statistics

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000

energy (MJ) per person per year

$G

DP

per c

ap

ita

China (28 MJ/$GDP)

Mexico (9.1 MJ/$GDP)

European Union (5.8 MJ/$GDP)

Japan (5.2 MJ/$GDP)

U.S.A.(8.9 MJ/$GDP)

$GDP“developed”

beginning of industrialization

ideal path

Projected CO2 Emissions“Kaya Identity”

CO2 Emissions = (Population)*(GDP/person)*

(Energy/GDP)*(CO2/energy)

carbon intensity

energy intensity

standard of living

• 2025– 1.48 billion people

– $6800 per capita

– 8.9 MJ/$GDP

– 7.5x10-8 kgCO2/J

• 2050– 1.52 billion people

– $27,200 per capita

– 8.9 MJ/$GDP

– 7.5x10-8 kgCO2/J

Projected CO2 Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

ind

ex,

US

A 2

00

5 =

1

2005 2025 2050

USA

China

Strategies for Reducing CO2 Emissions

• Change fuel mix (switch coal to gas)

• Nuclear

• Energy efficiency

• Geological CO2 sequestration

• Renewables– hydro

– wind

– biogas

LifecycleCO2EmissionsfromElectricityGeneration

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

coal oil

nat

ura

l gas

hyd

ro

geo

ther

mal

sola

rw

ind

nuclea

r

g C

O2 /

kW

h

Fuel Mix

Fuel Mix: Petroleum

China

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

year

mil

llio

n b

arrels

per d

ay production

consumption

World

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

year

rate

(Bbbl/

yr) conservative prediction

best prediction

actual data

Energy EfficiencyUse Japanese Efficiency of 5 MJ/$GDP, same fuelmix as today

0

1

2

3

4

5

ind

ex,

US

A 2

00

5 =

1

2005 2025 2050

USA

China

Geological Storage of CO2Efficiency goes down

<2% of Emissions to 2050

20-45% of Emissions to 205020-500 % of Emissions to 2050

20-185% of Emissions to 2050

45% of Emissions to 2050

90% of Emissions to 2050

IEA: Comparative potentials at storage costs of up to $20/t CO2 Source: Freund, IEASource: Parson & Keith, Science 282, 1053-1054, 1998

Renewable Energy Law• took effect Jan 1, 2007

• 15% renewable energy by 2020 (2 times current)

• $180 billion investment

• $0.03 per kWhr subsidy

• includes large hydropower

Three Gorges (18,200 MW Projected)Inner Mongolia

Hydroelectric Potential of China• 378-540 GW

potential = 15-22 timesBonnevillePowerAdministration

• currentutilization isabout 25%

• by 2020, about50% utilization

• ~12 powerplants on upperYangtze River

Top Ten Problems of the World(Richard Smalley 1996 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry)

1. Energy • Water

• Food

• Environment

• Poverty

• Terrorism/war

• Disease

• Education

• Democracy

• Population

Some or all of theseproblems are solvedif economic,environmentallyacceptable, energysources are found

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Technical Resources

• Halldór Ármannsson, “ CO2 Emissions from Geothermal Plants,”International Geothermal Conference, Reykjavík, Sept. 2003

Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov

• International Energy Agency, www.iea.org

• “Kaya Identity”: Energy Conv. and Management 36, 375-380, 1995.

• Kexi Pan, The Depth Distribution of Chinese Coal Resource, GCEPInternational Workshop, Beijing China, Aug 23, 2005.

• Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection,http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/

• Xuemin, C. and Chengchang, Z., “China’s Hydropower and ItsUtilization, Geojournal 10(2) 1985, 141-149.