Energitransformasjon mot 2050 - hvor er vi på vei? · DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017 SAFER,...

DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2017

17. november 2017

Remi Eriksen

Energitransformasjon mot 2050 - hvor er vi på vei?

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Bergens næringsråd – Årskonferansen 2017

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ENERGYTRANSITIONOUTLOOK2017A global and regional forecast

of the energy transition to 2050

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Forecast world primary energy supply

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Forecast world primary energy supply by source

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World final energy demand by sector

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World final energy demand by sector

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...first time since the middle ages that humanity will start to use less energy

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”

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E >GDP9

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Economic growth vs. energy efficiency growth

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Economic growth vs. energy efficiency growth

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20502015

34¢14¢

US Dollar generated per megajoule

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Global electricity production in 2050

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In progress

2015135 GJ/year

205076 GJ/year

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non fossil

fossil

North East Eurasia

China

Indian Subcontinent

South East Asia

OECD Pacific

Europe

Latin America

North America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

2017 2050 2017 2050

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Forecasted fossil energy use

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Coal

Oil

Gas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ/yr

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Market share of electric vehicles in new light vehicle sales

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Global energy expenditure as a fraction of Global GDP

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Global warming and carbon budget

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A global and regional forecast

of the energy transition to 2050