View
35
Download
5
Category
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
EMERGING TRENDS in INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. By Maj Gen (Dr)R K Bagga AVSM. INFORMATION EXPLOSION REMARKS YEAR PERIOD 0AD 1500 1500250 PRINTING PRESS 1750150 1900 50 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
EMERGING TRENDSin
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
By
Maj Gen (Dr)R K Bagga AVSM
INFORMATION DOUBLING PERIODS(GEORGE ANDRELA, FRANCE 1973)
INFORMATION EXPLOSION REMARKSYEAR PERIOD0AD 15001500 250 PRINTING PRESS1750 150 1900 50 1950 17 COMPUTER1967 6 1973 3 *128 TIMES AD11976 - (THE ELECTRONIC BAZAR by ROBIN
BLOOR) .
1991 . INTERNET2000 . EVERY MONTH ?
.2003 . EVERY MINUTE ?
Managing Today’s Enterprise• Global
Competition • Operations Geographically Dispersed
• Mergers, Acquisitions & Dependencies
• Customer Expectations Changing
Computer + Communication(Process/Store) (Transfer)
IS
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Intel Microprocessor Evolution
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Transistors MIPS
0.1
0.1
1.0
25
500
10K
100K
1M
10M
100M
4004
8080
8088
80286
80386
80486
PentiumTM
Processor
P6
Micro2000
Intel microprocessors have approximately doubled in transistorcount every 18 months. At this rate, Intel processors shouldcontain between 50 to 100 million transistors by the turn of thecentury and execute 2 billion instructions per second.
• Actual Predicted
1.00E + 07
1.00E + 06
1.00E + 05
1.00E + 04
1.00E + 03
1.00E + 08
Nu
mb
er o
f t
ran
sist
ors
• 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
•
••
•
••
•
Moore’s Law for Semiconductor Technology
Year
• Actual modem speeds “Moore’s Law” prediction
1000
100
10
1
0.1
10,000
Tra
nsm
issi
on
rat
e (k
b/s
)
• 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
•• • •
••
•••
•
••
Moore’s Law for Bandwidth(suggested IEEE Comsoc Oct99)
Year
INTERNET EXPLOSION
Internet host computers grew from 300,000 in 1990 to 2.2 million in 1993
INCREASE 50Million--- 1% Per DaySource: SRI International / Communication
Educational 45%Commercial 37%Military 7%Govt 8%Others 3%
INTERNET INTRANET EXTRANET
Information is primarily for external
access but can be usedinternally
Information canonly be accessed
internally
External access is limited to main trading
partners
INTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANETINTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANET
WEB
12 million e-mail messages in next minute, in addition to 0.5 million voice mail messages
37 million people will log on to the net todayand choose from 830 million web pages!
In the next 100 days, Internet traffic will double
More than 100 million additional Internet usersand 25 million websites will come on-line in 2000
More than 25 million new Web sites will come on-line in the next year
E-commerce projected to reach $7 trillion by 2004
More than 600 million devices connected to cellular networks by 2002
Global Internet Users
1994 1998 2000
151M
327M
18M
THE SPEED OF CHANGE OF THE INTERNET IS DRIVING INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH
METCALF MAGIC LAW
“ VALUE OF A NETWORK IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF
THE NUMBER OF USERS ”
TOTAL NETWORK BENEFIT = KU2
K = CONSTANTU = USERS
GARTNER GROUP FORECASTGARTNER GROUP FORECAST
By 2001 140 million Internet users Worldwide
By 2001 Gap between developed and developing countries decrease by 40%
By 2003 Internet adoption Worldwide as function of economic growth
Decreased local Internet access costs in developing countries
By 2003 ISP market will go from explosion to restructuring through consolidation
By 2003 Super Carriers will give multi- national gateways for Worldwide Internet access.
Acceleration for encryption and Worldwide Government restriction on use of Internet.
Contd… GARTNER GROUP FORECAST GARTNER GROUP FORECAST
INTERNET BUBBLE - IPO’S(PERKINS - RED HERING)
COMPANY % RETURN (MAY 1998 - APR, 1999)
HEALTHEON 3339e-BAY 3269ABOVENET 1853AMERI TRADE 1105MESSAGE MEDIA 886GO2NET 872CMG 792INFO*TRADE 952BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES 611
THE INDIANS IN ITTHE INDIANS IN IT
HOTMAIL … SABEER BHATIA
JUNGLEE … RAKESH MATHUR ET AL
SYCAMORE … GURURAJ DESHPANDE
TIBCO … VIVEK RANADIVE
i2 TECHNOLOGIES… SANJIV SIDHU
ART TECH GP … JEET SINGH
JUNIPER … PRADEEP SINDHU
INFOSPACE … NAVIN JAIN
REDBACK … VIVEK RAGHAVAN
E-SPEAK … RAJIV GUPTA
DOT.COM GRAVE YARD (www.upside.com/graveyard)
4 JULY 2001NameName BornBorn DiedDied Bush RateBush Rate
(Millions)
Bazillon.com 1999 15 Jan 2001 Nil Carclub.com - 1 May, 2001 $45 MCyber Rebate.com May, 1998 16 May, 2001 NilDasti’s*new* Jan, 2000 June, 2001 $100 MFoodline.com Late 1998 2 Jan 2001 -Honebytes.com 1998 1 May 2001 $12 Mimotors.com Sept, 1999 25 Apr, 2001 $39 MKozmo.com 1997 12 Apr 2001 $80 MMarchFirst.com 1999 May, 2001 $20 MRx.com June, 1989 10 May 2001 $350 MSpacework.com 1993 1 May 2001 $6 MVoter.com Mar, 1999 6 Feb 2001 $2 M
NASDAQ DOW JONE30
20
10
0
10
20
30
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
INDIA 2000BS ICE INDEX
ICE Market in INDIA & theWORLD-2000
500500
400400
300300
200200
100100
00
245245
449449
148148154154 159159
10 INTERNET PREDICTIONS BY MR MODEM
1. Web shakeout to continue for one more year 2. Web to stabilize in 2 years (by 2003) 3. Info. Availability (anywhere, any time) will not replace Human Decision Process 4. Internet based education programme to increase 5. Private online communication will proliferate 6. Pager, PDA & Cellphone to converge
Contd… 10 INTERNET PREDICTIONSBY MR MODEM
7. Immediate access to Info will be norm 8. Internet Telephone will reduce call charges 9. Internet users will be all pervasive10. E-Commerce – will depend on 3A’s.
- Authenticator- Authorization- Assurance
( Internet Guide for Seniors ) - RICHARD SHERMAN
De-mystify I T Concept?
Quality • TQM, ISO, CMM, ...
Optimize• JIT, KANBAN, ...
1970s 1980s 1990s
Client/Server
Beyond (Y2K)
MainFrames
InformationAge!
PCs
Y2K
Networks
Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>>Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>>
Strategy• SBP, Benchmarking, ...
Process• BPR, ABC, ABM, ...
Knowledge• KM
Wearable
LEADERSHIP FOR E-BUSINESS
“Five years from now, all companies will be Internet companies, or no companies at all.”
-Andy Grove, Chairman of Intel, 1999
Who is going to lead the transformation in your company?
How will they transform the company?
IT VALUE CREATION IN NEW e-CONOMY
INFO FREEDOM & GLOBALISATION
MORE EFFICIENT MARKET
CUSTOMISATION
LOWER TRANSACTION COST
NEW ENTRANT TO ESTABLISH MARKET e/m-COMMERCE
EXPLOITION OF IT & INTERNET
MERGERS & ACQUISITION
GANG OF FOUR
1.E-MAIL
2.WEBSITE
3.SEARCH ENGINES
4.MUD (MULTI USER DOMAIN) OR COMMUNITY
Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off)
• Private Sector to lead via market-driven self regulation
• Govt. not to impose New/Unnecessary regulation, bureaucratic procedures, taxes/tariffs• Internet is unique & does not fall under jurisdiction of existing laws & regulations
Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off)
• Cyber Laws - Consistent/Predictable legal
environment for IPR, fraud prevention &
privacy - Min involvement of Govt.
• Facilitate E-Commerce on Global Basis !
GUI - USER FRIENDLY
STORAGE CAPACITY - INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
DATA WAREHOUSE - TERABYTE INFO
MULTIMEDIA - INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTELLIGENT SYSTEM - INCREASE / IMPORTANCE
OBJECT - ORIENTED TECHNIQUE - WIDE ACCEPTABILITY
COMPUTERS SIZE - INCREASINGLY COMPACT
EMERGING TRENDS-COMPUTERSCOMPUTERS
CLIENT - SERVER ARCHITECTURE - PRE-DOMINANT PORTABLE / MOBILE - INCREASINGLY HOME COMPUTING - ON DEMAND SERVICES INTERNET NG - SUPER HIGHWAY INTRANET - ENTERPRISE KNOWLEDGE
REPOSITORY ELECTRONIC COMMERCE - CHANGE BUSINESS
WAYS INTELLIGENT SEARCH AGENTS - AT YOUR SERVICE
COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTION !
EVEN IN INDIAN ENVIRONMENT
EMERGING TRENDS -NETWORKINGNETWORKING
JDI- DIRECTIVE(Robin Bloor)
Make sure every one in the company has a PC, Internet access.
Order all executives to surf Web on daily basis (Even CEO)
Encourage use of email
Insist that Marketing Department monitors the WEB for competition
Insist Procurement Department use the WEB to check prices
If not on WEB – Do it now or Die
Any Questions ?
Recommended