Ed4 Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF)–Surface...Sep 26, 2017  · Geo(1hr) and Modis cloud...

Ed4EnergyBalancedandFilled(EBAF)–Surface

Sept26th 2017

CERESScienceTeamMeetingNasaGoddardB34RmW150,GreenbeltMd

FredRose,SeijiKato,NormanLoeb,DavidDoellingTylerThorsen,DavidRutan

Ed4EBAF-SurfaceOutline

1. Algorithmdescription

2. Terra6.7umMODISanomaly,SfcEbaf 4.1Terra-AquaNightCryospherecorrection

3. GreatLakesiceissue

4. FutureEd5plans(exploratory)?• MitigatetemporalGEOboundariesusingGEOvsModisclouds.

5. Comparisonofatmosphericnetanomaliesversusprecipitationanomalies

SurfaceEnergyBalanced&Filled ED4_SFC_EBAF isamonthly,1ox1o degsurfacebroadbandfluxproductthatismadeconsistentwithCERES(TOA_EBAF) SWandLWfluxes,usinguncertaintyestimatesofinputproperties(clouds,atmosphereandsurface)andTOAandsurfacefluxes

Itusesa1dradiativetransfer(Fu-Liou)frameworkforitsadjustmentandinitialfluxcomputationswhicharebasedon inputsofMODIS andGeostationary cloudproperties, GMAO GEOS5.4.1 assimilation,MATCHaerosols.

SurfaceEBAF::Whatisit.

Ed4SurfaceEBAF:Summary• Ed4CERESinputproducts

– HourlygriddedRTmodel(Fu_Liou)computationsusingGeo(1hr)andModiscloudproperties.(Ed4SYN1deg_hour)

– Temperature,humidityandozoneprofilesfromGeos5.4.1whichreplacesmixofGeos4&Geos5.2usedinSfc_Ebaf Ed2.8• Nodiscontinuityin2008.

– AerosolsfromMATCHEd4MODIScol5.

• ED4hasamodifiedbiasadjustmentprocedure.

• AssignmentofsurfacefluxuncertaintiesbasedonunadjustedmodelEd4-Ed3differences

SurfaceEBAF::Ed4Process

• SurfaceEBAFconsistsoftwobasicsubprocesses1. BiasCorrections2. LagrangeMultiplierAdjustments

• Ed4hasEnhancedBiascorrectionadjustments– ClearandAllskyOLRfromUpperTroposphereTemperatureand

Humidity.• dOLR/dT(z)anddOLR/dQ(z)adj.toAIRX3STM.006(AIRS_IRonly afterSep2016)

– SurfaceLWDownfromBottomviewCloudFractionandbase:• GEO/Modisà Calipso/CldSat zonalmonthlyclimatology• dSFC_LWdn /dCloud_Fraction• dSFC_LWdn /dCloud_Base

– AllSkySurfaceSWDownandTOASWUpfromTopviewlowcloudfrac• GEO/Modisà Calipso/CldSat top viewcloudlowcloudfractionoveroceanas

azonalrelativepercentageadjustmentappliedonthemonthlygridscaletobiascorrect

• dSW_TOA/dCF,dSFC_SWdn/dCF ,dOLR/dCF

TOAShortwaveReflected

Surfa

ceShortw

aveDo

wn

SurfaceAlbedo

SFCEBAFBasicConceptShortwave:TOAReflectedvsSFCDownwelling

Aerosols

• InSFCEBAFwetypicallyadjustcloudstomatchTOA_EBAFalbedoresultinginamodifiedSFCtransmission

• Magnitudeofderivativesaredependentonmonthlymeanregionconditions

A

B

LessSignificanttoSW• CloudHeight• TotalPW• UTRH• Sfc andSkinT

Lengthofeacharrowproportionaltoeffecttimesuncertainty.

TOAOutgoingLongwave

Surfa

ceLongwaveDow

n

SFCEBAFBasicConceptLongwave:TOAOLRvsSFCDownwelling

• TOALWfluxeshavelessrelationshipSFCLWDownthanSW

LessSignificanttoLW• Aerosol• Sfc Alb

TotalPW

UTRH

SkinTSfc AirT

LagrangeMultiplierConcept

Fluxes /Variables

SWTOA LWTOA SWSfcDn

SWSfcUp

LWSfcDn

LWSfcUp

SkinT df/dv*dv*Dv

SfcAirT

PW(sfc:500)

PW(200:500)

AOT

SfcAlbedoCld Optical Depth

Cld Top

Cld Base

Cld Fraction MethodusesasetofOvercast-SkyandClear-SkyPartialDerivatives

DFk aretheTOAModel– ObservedbiascorrectedFluxdifferencesSurfacedifferencesassignedtozeroafterbiascorrection.eFk arethe1sigmauncertaintiesassignedtofluxcomponent.Resultingvariableadj. Dvj forcesTOAagreementcausingSFCfluxmodifications

Minimize S (DF/sF)2+(Dv/sv)2

ModisTerraAnomaly

• Terra6.7umand8.5umchannelanomalyandresultingTerracloudfractionanomalyovernighttimeandlowsun(SZA>82deg)CryosphereappliedfromMarch2016toAug2016

• LargeanomalyoccurredinFeb2016butadriftwasseenalreadyin2008.

• SurfaceLongwavedownhasalargesensitivitytocloudfractionincolddryregions.

CloudfractionfromTerraVs.AquaoverCryosphereNight

%Grid boxes Cryosphere Night

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Perc

ent o

f Glo

be

Mean and RMS ∆ Cld Fraction

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

1

2

3

4

5

% C

loud

MEANRMS

Min and Max ∆ Cld Fraction

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

-10

0

10

20

% C

loud

Max

Min

Mean and RMS ∆ AQUA only - Aqua_of(T&A)Cld Frac.

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

1

2

3

4

5

% C

loud

MEANRMS

AQUA minus TERRA Cryosphere Night Cloud Fraction Weighted by :: (#Terra + 0.5*#Interp :Cryosphere_Night) / Total # of Obs

%Grid boxes Cryosphere Night

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Perc

ent o

f Glo

be

Mean and RMS ∆ Cld Fraction

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

1

2

3

4

5

% C

loud

MEANRMS

Min and Max ∆ Cld Fraction

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

-10

0

10

20

% C

loud

Max

Min

Mean and RMS ∆ AQUA only - Aqua_of(T&A)Cld Frac.

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month

0

1

2

3

4

5

% C

loud

MEANRMS

AQUA minus TERRA Cryosphere Night Cloud Fraction Weighted by :: (#Terra + 0.5*#Interp :Cryosphere_Night) / Total # of Obs

AquaOnlyminusAquaCloudFractionattimeswhenTerraalsoavailable

AQUAminus TerraCloudFraction

CorrectionMethod• UseTerra&Aqua TSItoobtainmonthlygridboxcloudfractiondifferencesbetweenTerraonlyandAquaonlytimes.

• Weightcloudfractiondifferencesby(#TerraCryNightHours+0.5*(#InterpolatedCry NightHours)/(#TOTALHourspermonth )

• ObtainGridboxLWSFCDNmultiplyby– dDLF/dCF– Typically0.5to0.9Wm-2/%CloudinPolarregions

#Terra-Aqua Cryosphere_Night_CldPct (Occ Wgt)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15∆%

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

N= 2513. Mean ( StdDev)∆% -4.14( 2.70)

Terra minus Aqua(Occ Wgt) 201606 Cryos. Ngt.

0 360-90

90

-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0Cloud Amount(%)N= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)

Cloud Amount(%) -4.72( 2.79)

Glb area wgt mean= -4.041*DLF Correction to T&A using AA 201606 Cryos. Ngt.

0 360-90

90

-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0∆DLFN= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)

∆DLF 3.43( 2.30)

Glb area wgt mean= 2.805*

DLF Correction to T&A using A 201606 Cryos. Ngt.

0 360-90

90

-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0∆DLFN= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)

∆DLF 3.11( 2.10)

Glb area wgt mean= 2.652*

Timeperiod:June2016

Upperleft:HistogramofTerraminusAquacloudfractiondifference

UpperRight:Globalmapofcloudfractiondifferences(Terra– Aqua)

LowerLeft:GlobalmapofSurfaceLongwavefluxadjustment.

NESDIS“SeaIce”maps(left)donotattempttogivevaluesforfreshwaterlakes…

InrealityNOAAGLERLMar2014maps(below)havealloftheGreatlakes,exceptLakeOntarioat>95%Cover

ThereforeEd4CloudalgorithmandSFCEBAFfollowincorrectalgorithmpathsgivingincorrectCloudFractionandFluxdata…..

LakeIceIssueGreatLakesWinter2014

• SurfaceEBAFtunestoTOAEBAFSWAllandClearvaluessuccessfullyhowever..– AllSkyrequiredamoderateincreaseincloudfraction.– ClearSkyerroneouslyincreasesAerosolOpticalDepth,Why?

– SeaicevaluesusedinEd4SYNIshowNOiceforentirewinter/springseason

– GLERLIcemapsshownearly100%valuesfromFebruarythruMidAprilof2014.

47.5N 272.5E

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8µ= 0.095 µ= 0.106 ∆µ=-0.010 ρ= 0.716

Pg. 8

47.5N 272.5E Anomaly

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8 σ= 0.036 σ= 0.071 ρanomaly= 0.616 -0.013 /decade 0.004 /decade

AOT_CLR_UTAOT_CLR_TU

glen.ps Mon Aug 21 15:16:59 2017

TimeseriesofTunedandUnTuned AerosolopticaldepthOverLakeSuperiorGridboxinEd3SFC_EBAF

SinceGridboxhaslessthanthe10%seaicethresholditisconsideredtobewatergridboxwithahighcertaintyofsurfacealbedo.AerosolthereforehasalargeruncertaintythansurfacealbedoandAOTiserroneouslyadjustedtomatchTOAEBAFSW.

Ed5CloudPropertyadjustmentplan

• Implementaregionalmonthlybiascorrectionbaseduponmonthlymeanofnearco-temporalMODISandGeostationarycloudobservations.

• RetainsdiurnalGeocloudinformation.

Ed4LowCloudOceanAdjustmentGEO(s): Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day

0 360-60

60

0 20 40 60 80 100%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)

% 43.48( 18.90)

Glb area wgt mean= 42.211*

MODIS: Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day

0 360-60

60

0 20 40 60 80 100%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)

% 38.77( 18.31)

Glb area wgt mean= 37.557*GEO(s)-MODIS: Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day

0 360-60

60

-10 -6 -2 2 6 10%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)

% 4.71( 7.70)

Glb area wgt mean= 4.654*

Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day

0 20 40 60 80 100%

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Latit

ude

Geo(s): 42.4Modis: 37.9

Geo-Modis: 4.5

Ed4:• Lowcloudfractionadjustmentoveroceanonly.

• DidnotaccountforGeotoGeoretrievaldifferences• Usingaseasonalzonalclimatologyrelativefractioncorrection• fraclow’=fraclow *fadj(lat,month)

Ed4Syn1deg_Hourproductsubsetbyobservationsourceandadjacencyof

ModisandGeoobservations.

• Hour:123456789101112131415161718192021222324• SatIdx:2 20 10 20 2 2 2 2 20 10 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 20 10 20

• t10 RedModisobservationtimewithaGeoobseither+or– 1hr.• t20 GreenGEOobservationwithin+/- 1hrofModisobs.• t2 GEOobservation>1hourfromModis

• Modis=Mean(cld(t10))• Geo(@modis)=Mean(cld(t20))• Geo(@other)=Mean(cld(t2))

MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42026Glb Mean: -3.168*

Stddev: 10.48

G_CLD_PCT_DAY_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 1.505*

Stddev: 5.10MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 6.599*

Stddev: 12.23

G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: -0.034*

Stddev: 4.28

TOTALCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY

DAY

NIGHT

Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis

MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_HI-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42026Glb Mean: 1.589*

Stddev: 5.55

G_CLD_PCT_DAY_HI-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 1.162*

Stddev: 3.47MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_HI-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 13.034*

Stddev: 15.69

G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_HI-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 0.125*

Stddev: 2.35

DAY

NIGHT

Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis

HIGHCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY

MA_CLD_LNTAU_DAY_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)

Cnt: 41984Glb Mean: -0.049*

Stddev: 0.40

G_CLD_LNTAU_DAY_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)

Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 0.045*

Stddev: 0.22MA_CLD_LNTAU_NIGHT_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: -0.273*

Stddev: 0.40

G_CLD_LNTAU_NIGHT_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)

Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 0.084*

Stddev: 0.19

DAY

NIGHT

Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis

TotalCloudOpticalDepthJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY

MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_LOW-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 41732Glb Mean: -4.719*

Stddev: 10.09

G_CLD_PCT_DAY_LOW-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 41847Glb Mean: 0.208*

Stddev: 5.99MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_LOW-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 41916Glb Mean: -3.203*

Stddev: 9.56

G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_LOW-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)

Cnt: 41916Glb Mean: -0.010*

Stddev: 3.97

LOWCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY

DAY

NIGHT

Bias:coincidentModisminusGEO Diurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis

GlobalOceanHeatContent2015

1022 Joules/yearisroughlyequivalentto1Wm-2overtheglobaldomain.Changeinoceanheatcontentisheatstorage

2015coincideswiththeendofLaNina,ie.endofalargeoceanheatstorageperiod?EspeciallyasElNinomagnifiedinthefallof2015.

AtmosphereNetRadiationandGlobalPrecipitation

Red:Ed4EBAF(TOA-SFC)GlobalanomalyofSw&Lw AtmosphereNetBlue:GPCPv2.3GlobalprecipitationanomalyconvertedtoWm-2 (SignFlipped) Lv =28.9Wm-2/mmday-1

Smoothedusinga12monthrunningmean

Atmospheregainsheatthroughlatentheatreleasefromcondensationtoformprecipitation.Radiationactstobalancetheprecipitationinducedatmosphericheatanomaly.*VariabilityofSurfacefluxesofLatentandSensibleheatnotincludedhere.

LaNina…………… ..

. ....ElNino