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Ed4EnergyBalancedandFilled(EBAF)–Surface
Sept26th 2017
CERESScienceTeamMeetingNasaGoddardB34RmW150,GreenbeltMd
FredRose,SeijiKato,NormanLoeb,DavidDoellingTylerThorsen,DavidRutan
Ed4EBAF-SurfaceOutline
1. Algorithmdescription
2. Terra6.7umMODISanomaly,SfcEbaf 4.1Terra-AquaNightCryospherecorrection
3. GreatLakesiceissue
4. FutureEd5plans(exploratory)?• MitigatetemporalGEOboundariesusingGEOvsModisclouds.
5. Comparisonofatmosphericnetanomaliesversusprecipitationanomalies
SurfaceEnergyBalanced&Filled ED4_SFC_EBAF isamonthly,1ox1o degsurfacebroadbandfluxproductthatismadeconsistentwithCERES(TOA_EBAF) SWandLWfluxes,usinguncertaintyestimatesofinputproperties(clouds,atmosphereandsurface)andTOAandsurfacefluxes
Itusesa1dradiativetransfer(Fu-Liou)frameworkforitsadjustmentandinitialfluxcomputationswhicharebasedon inputsofMODIS andGeostationary cloudproperties, GMAO GEOS5.4.1 assimilation,MATCHaerosols.
SurfaceEBAF::Whatisit.
Ed4SurfaceEBAF:Summary• Ed4CERESinputproducts
– HourlygriddedRTmodel(Fu_Liou)computationsusingGeo(1hr)andModiscloudproperties.(Ed4SYN1deg_hour)
– Temperature,humidityandozoneprofilesfromGeos5.4.1whichreplacesmixofGeos4&Geos5.2usedinSfc_Ebaf Ed2.8• Nodiscontinuityin2008.
– AerosolsfromMATCHEd4MODIScol5.
• ED4hasamodifiedbiasadjustmentprocedure.
• AssignmentofsurfacefluxuncertaintiesbasedonunadjustedmodelEd4-Ed3differences
SurfaceEBAF::Ed4Process
• SurfaceEBAFconsistsoftwobasicsubprocesses1. BiasCorrections2. LagrangeMultiplierAdjustments
• Ed4hasEnhancedBiascorrectionadjustments– ClearandAllskyOLRfromUpperTroposphereTemperatureand
Humidity.• dOLR/dT(z)anddOLR/dQ(z)adj.toAIRX3STM.006(AIRS_IRonly afterSep2016)
– SurfaceLWDownfromBottomviewCloudFractionandbase:• GEO/Modisà Calipso/CldSat zonalmonthlyclimatology• dSFC_LWdn /dCloud_Fraction• dSFC_LWdn /dCloud_Base
– AllSkySurfaceSWDownandTOASWUpfromTopviewlowcloudfrac• GEO/Modisà Calipso/CldSat top viewcloudlowcloudfractionoveroceanas
azonalrelativepercentageadjustmentappliedonthemonthlygridscaletobiascorrect
• dSW_TOA/dCF,dSFC_SWdn/dCF ,dOLR/dCF
TOAShortwaveReflected
Surfa
ceShortw
aveDo
wn
SurfaceAlbedo
SFCEBAFBasicConceptShortwave:TOAReflectedvsSFCDownwelling
Aerosols
• InSFCEBAFwetypicallyadjustcloudstomatchTOA_EBAFalbedoresultinginamodifiedSFCtransmission
• Magnitudeofderivativesaredependentonmonthlymeanregionconditions
A
B
LessSignificanttoSW• CloudHeight• TotalPW• UTRH• Sfc andSkinT
Lengthofeacharrowproportionaltoeffecttimesuncertainty.
TOAOutgoingLongwave
Surfa
ceLongwaveDow
n
SFCEBAFBasicConceptLongwave:TOAOLRvsSFCDownwelling
• TOALWfluxeshavelessrelationshipSFCLWDownthanSW
LessSignificanttoLW• Aerosol• Sfc Alb
TotalPW
UTRH
SkinTSfc AirT
LagrangeMultiplierConcept
Fluxes /Variables
SWTOA LWTOA SWSfcDn
SWSfcUp
LWSfcDn
LWSfcUp
SkinT df/dv*dv*Dv
SfcAirT
PW(sfc:500)
PW(200:500)
AOT
SfcAlbedoCld Optical Depth
Cld Top
Cld Base
Cld Fraction MethodusesasetofOvercast-SkyandClear-SkyPartialDerivatives
DFk aretheTOAModel– ObservedbiascorrectedFluxdifferencesSurfacedifferencesassignedtozeroafterbiascorrection.eFk arethe1sigmauncertaintiesassignedtofluxcomponent.Resultingvariableadj. Dvj forcesTOAagreementcausingSFCfluxmodifications
Minimize S (DF/sF)2+(Dv/sv)2
ModisTerraAnomaly
• Terra6.7umand8.5umchannelanomalyandresultingTerracloudfractionanomalyovernighttimeandlowsun(SZA>82deg)CryosphereappliedfromMarch2016toAug2016
• LargeanomalyoccurredinFeb2016butadriftwasseenalreadyin2008.
• SurfaceLongwavedownhasalargesensitivitytocloudfractionincolddryregions.
CloudfractionfromTerraVs.AquaoverCryosphereNight
%Grid boxes Cryosphere Night
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Perc
ent o
f Glo
be
Mean and RMS ∆ Cld Fraction
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
% C
loud
MEANRMS
Min and Max ∆ Cld Fraction
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
-10
0
10
20
% C
loud
Max
Min
Mean and RMS ∆ AQUA only - Aqua_of(T&A)Cld Frac.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
% C
loud
MEANRMS
AQUA minus TERRA Cryosphere Night Cloud Fraction Weighted by :: (#Terra + 0.5*#Interp :Cryosphere_Night) / Total # of Obs
%Grid boxes Cryosphere Night
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Perc
ent o
f Glo
be
Mean and RMS ∆ Cld Fraction
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
% C
loud
MEANRMS
Min and Max ∆ Cld Fraction
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
-10
0
10
20
% C
loud
Max
Min
Mean and RMS ∆ AQUA only - Aqua_of(T&A)Cld Frac.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
% C
loud
MEANRMS
AQUA minus TERRA Cryosphere Night Cloud Fraction Weighted by :: (#Terra + 0.5*#Interp :Cryosphere_Night) / Total # of Obs
AquaOnlyminusAquaCloudFractionattimeswhenTerraalsoavailable
AQUAminus TerraCloudFraction
CorrectionMethod• UseTerra&Aqua TSItoobtainmonthlygridboxcloudfractiondifferencesbetweenTerraonlyandAquaonlytimes.
• Weightcloudfractiondifferencesby(#TerraCryNightHours+0.5*(#InterpolatedCry NightHours)/(#TOTALHourspermonth )
• ObtainGridboxLWSFCDNmultiplyby– dDLF/dCF– Typically0.5to0.9Wm-2/%CloudinPolarregions
#Terra-Aqua Cryosphere_Night_CldPct (Occ Wgt)
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15∆%
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
N= 2513. Mean ( StdDev)∆% -4.14( 2.70)
Terra minus Aqua(Occ Wgt) 201606 Cryos. Ngt.
0 360-90
90
-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0Cloud Amount(%)N= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)
Cloud Amount(%) -4.72( 2.79)
Glb area wgt mean= -4.041*DLF Correction to T&A using AA 201606 Cryos. Ngt.
0 360-90
90
-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0∆DLFN= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)
∆DLF 3.43( 2.30)
Glb area wgt mean= 2.805*
DLF Correction to T&A using A 201606 Cryos. Ngt.
0 360-90
90
-6.0 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6.0∆DLFN= 9550. Mean ( StdDev)
∆DLF 3.11( 2.10)
Glb area wgt mean= 2.652*
Timeperiod:June2016
Upperleft:HistogramofTerraminusAquacloudfractiondifference
UpperRight:Globalmapofcloudfractiondifferences(Terra– Aqua)
LowerLeft:GlobalmapofSurfaceLongwavefluxadjustment.
NESDIS“SeaIce”maps(left)donotattempttogivevaluesforfreshwaterlakes…
InrealityNOAAGLERLMar2014maps(below)havealloftheGreatlakes,exceptLakeOntarioat>95%Cover
ThereforeEd4CloudalgorithmandSFCEBAFfollowincorrectalgorithmpathsgivingincorrectCloudFractionandFluxdata…..
LakeIceIssueGreatLakesWinter2014
• SurfaceEBAFtunestoTOAEBAFSWAllandClearvaluessuccessfullyhowever..– AllSkyrequiredamoderateincreaseincloudfraction.– ClearSkyerroneouslyincreasesAerosolOpticalDepth,Why?
– SeaicevaluesusedinEd4SYNIshowNOiceforentirewinter/springseason
– GLERLIcemapsshownearly100%valuesfromFebruarythruMidAprilof2014.
47.5N 272.5E
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8µ= 0.095 µ= 0.106 ∆µ=-0.010 ρ= 0.716
Pg. 8
47.5N 272.5E Anomaly
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8 σ= 0.036 σ= 0.071 ρanomaly= 0.616 -0.013 /decade 0.004 /decade
AOT_CLR_UTAOT_CLR_TU
glen.ps Mon Aug 21 15:16:59 2017
TimeseriesofTunedandUnTuned AerosolopticaldepthOverLakeSuperiorGridboxinEd3SFC_EBAF
SinceGridboxhaslessthanthe10%seaicethresholditisconsideredtobewatergridboxwithahighcertaintyofsurfacealbedo.AerosolthereforehasalargeruncertaintythansurfacealbedoandAOTiserroneouslyadjustedtomatchTOAEBAFSW.
Ed5CloudPropertyadjustmentplan
• Implementaregionalmonthlybiascorrectionbaseduponmonthlymeanofnearco-temporalMODISandGeostationarycloudobservations.
• RetainsdiurnalGeocloudinformation.
Ed4LowCloudOceanAdjustmentGEO(s): Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day
0 360-60
60
0 20 40 60 80 100%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)
% 43.48( 18.90)
Glb area wgt mean= 42.211*
MODIS: Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day
0 360-60
60
0 20 40 60 80 100%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)
% 38.77( 18.31)
Glb area wgt mean= 37.557*GEO(s)-MODIS: Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day
0 360-60
60
-10 -6 -2 2 6 10%N= 30666. Mean ( StdDev)
% 4.71( 7.70)
Glb area wgt mean= 4.654*
Low Cloud Ocean 200807 Day
0 20 40 60 80 100%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Latit
ude
Geo(s): 42.4Modis: 37.9
Geo-Modis: 4.5
Ed4:• Lowcloudfractionadjustmentoveroceanonly.
• DidnotaccountforGeotoGeoretrievaldifferences• Usingaseasonalzonalclimatologyrelativefractioncorrection• fraclow’=fraclow *fadj(lat,month)
Ed4Syn1deg_Hourproductsubsetbyobservationsourceandadjacencyof
ModisandGeoobservations.
• Hour:123456789101112131415161718192021222324• SatIdx:2 20 10 20 2 2 2 2 20 10 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 20 10 20
• t10 RedModisobservationtimewithaGeoobseither+or– 1hr.• t20 GreenGEOobservationwithin+/- 1hrofModisobs.• t2 GEOobservation>1hourfromModis
• Modis=Mean(cld(t10))• Geo(@modis)=Mean(cld(t20))• Geo(@other)=Mean(cld(t2))
MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42026Glb Mean: -3.168*
Stddev: 10.48
G_CLD_PCT_DAY_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 1.505*
Stddev: 5.10MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 6.599*
Stddev: 12.23
G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: -0.034*
Stddev: 4.28
TOTALCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY
DAY
NIGHT
Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis
MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_HI-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42026Glb Mean: 1.589*
Stddev: 5.55
G_CLD_PCT_DAY_HI-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 1.162*
Stddev: 3.47MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_HI-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 13.034*
Stddev: 15.69
G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_HI-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 0.125*
Stddev: 2.35
DAY
NIGHT
Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis
HIGHCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY
MA_CLD_LNTAU_DAY_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)
Cnt: 41984Glb Mean: -0.049*
Stddev: 0.40
G_CLD_LNTAU_DAY_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)
Cnt: 42140Glb Mean: 0.045*
Stddev: 0.22MA_CLD_LNTAU_NIGHT_TOTAL-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: -0.273*
Stddev: 0.40
G_CLD_LNTAU_NIGHT_TOTAL-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0∆ln(tau)
Cnt: 42210Glb Mean: 0.084*
Stddev: 0.19
DAY
NIGHT
Bias:coincidentModisminusGEODiurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis
TotalCloudOpticalDepthJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY
MA_CLD_PCT_DAY_LOW-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 41732Glb Mean: -4.719*
Stddev: 10.09
G_CLD_PCT_DAY_LOW-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 41847Glb Mean: 0.208*
Stddev: 5.99MA_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_LOW-[Modis-Geo(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 41916Glb Mean: -3.203*
Stddev: 9.56
G_CLD_PCT_NIGHT_LOW-[GEO-GEO(@modis)]
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25(∆%)
Cnt: 41916Glb Mean: -0.010*
Stddev: 3.97
LOWCloudFractionJuly2001TERRAMODISvsGEOSTATIONARY
DAY
NIGHT
Bias:coincidentModisminusGEO Diurnal:GEO(all)minusGEOatModis
GlobalOceanHeatContent2015
1022 Joules/yearisroughlyequivalentto1Wm-2overtheglobaldomain.Changeinoceanheatcontentisheatstorage
2015coincideswiththeendofLaNina,ie.endofalargeoceanheatstorageperiod?EspeciallyasElNinomagnifiedinthefallof2015.
AtmosphereNetRadiationandGlobalPrecipitation
Red:Ed4EBAF(TOA-SFC)GlobalanomalyofSw&Lw AtmosphereNetBlue:GPCPv2.3GlobalprecipitationanomalyconvertedtoWm-2 (SignFlipped) Lv =28.9Wm-2/mmday-1
Smoothedusinga12monthrunningmean
Atmospheregainsheatthroughlatentheatreleasefromcondensationtoformprecipitation.Radiationactstobalancetheprecipitationinducedatmosphericheatanomaly.*VariabilityofSurfacefluxesofLatentandSensibleheatnotincludedhere.
LaNina…………… ..
. ....ElNino