Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources...

Ecosystem BasedModeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW

Philip Gibbs Karen Astles

The Program & Linkages• DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella

program’

• Comprehensive Coastal Assessment

• Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2)

• Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project)

• Initial project in Clarence Estuary

• CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme

Objectives• Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use

management of coastal environments

• Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities

• Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’

Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling

Data

Management Objectives

Management strategy/ scenarios

Presentation of outputs to decision makers

Policy formation

Management responses

Monitoring/adaptive

management

Building virtual ecosystem (Operating

model)

AtlantisBiogeochemical

model

Program Outline

Human activities

impacts

Ecosystem

Modelling&

Monitoring

Management

Interface Between

Management Science

Stakeholders

Climate Change

• National Adaptation Framework

• Coastal Vulnerability Assessment

• Increasing Temperature

• Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO

• Sea level rise

• Increasing ocean acidity

Likely Impacts

• Ocean current changes

• Storm surges

• Freshwater flow to estuaries

• Habitat change

• Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates

• Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests

• Socio economic effects

Tools• Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled

physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’

– Physical box model in 3 dimensions

– Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus)

– Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins)

– Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency

• Computational limit

“What if” Scenarios• Timeframe 1950 to 2030

• Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch

• Climate change

• Land-use

• Increasing population and urbanisation

• Socio economic change

The Future

• Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component

• Explicit representation of Marine Parks

• Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs

• Coupling of estuary and shelf models

• Documentation of the “what if” outputs

Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible?

Plants and Animals

People (social)

Economics

Geophysical

environment

PoliticsPolitics

ThankThank YouYou