Economic Risk Analysis: Oregon and the Japanese … Risk Analysis: Oregon and the Japanese Beetle...

Plant Protection & Conservation Insect Pest Prevention and Management Program

Oregon.gov/ODA Rev2/1/2017

EconomicRiskAnalysis:OregonandtheJapaneseBeetle(Popilliajaponica)

Name:JapaneseBeetle,Popilliajaponica(Newman)Origin,biology,hosts:NativetoJapan,introducedintoU.S.(NewJersey)in1916;nowinmosteasternstates;onegenerationperyear;larvaefeedongrassroots;adultsfeedonover300speciesofplants(e.g.,roses,fruittrees,grapes)RISKRATINGSUMMARYRelativeRiskrating:VERYHIGH NumericalScore:9(ona1-9scale)Uncertainty:LOWRISKRATINGDETAILS• EstablishmentPotential:HIGHOregon’sclimateandhostplantdistributionareidealforJapanesebeetle

establishment.• SpreadPotential:HIGH Sinceitsintroductionin1916inNewJersey,Japanesebeetleshavebecomeestablishedinhalfofthe

48contiguousstates.Nurserystock,commercialcargoairplanes,andlong-haultrucksaremajorpathwaysofintroduction.

• EnvironmentalImpactPotential:LOWManyJapanesebeetlehostsoccurinOregon’snaturalenvironment.Himalayanblackberry,aknown

favoritehostplant,isabundant.Potentialimpactstonativespeciessuchasbigleafmaple,salmonberry,andnativegrassesaredifficulttopredict,butcouldbesignificant.

• EconomicImpactPotential:HIGH Oregonhasanumberofsusceptiblehoststhatareofeconomicsignificance(seeTable):

OregonCrop/Commodity

BearingorHarvestedAcreage

ProductionValue

EstimatedCropDamageCostsa

EstimatedQuarantineCosts

TotalEconomicImpact

Nurseries(B&B,Container,Greenhouse) 61,099b 805,000,000b 12,880,000 3,477,600f 16,357,600

Grapes 19,000 118,320,000 1,893,120 151,450g 2,044,570

Hops 5,410 35,679,000 570,864 45,669g 616,533

Cannabis ? 361,000,000d 5,776,000 NotApplicable 5,776,000

Caneberries 9,000 70,789,000 1,132,624 90,610g 1,223,234

Blueberries 9,000 102,325,000 1,637,200 130,976g 1,768,176

Pears(allvarieties) 14,400 127,392,000 2,038,272 163,062g 2,201,334

Sweetcherries 12,500 82,709,000 1,323,344 105,867g 1,429,211

Apples 5,100 43,269,000 692,304 55,384g 747,688

Snapbeans/process 8,500 13,940,000 223,040 17,843g 240,883

Grasses(turf) 418,550 449,018,000 7,184,288 574,743g 7,759,031

GolfCourses 8,550c 336,400,000e 5,382,400 NotApplicable 5,382,400Total 571,109 2,545,841,000 34,957,456 4,813,204 45,546,660

Plant Protection & Conservation Insect Pest Prevention and Management Program

Oregon.gov/ODA Rev2/1/2017

a productofproductionvaluemultipliedby.016(damageestimatefromFowleretal.2007)bOAN2016cbasedon190golfcoursesinORandaverageof45acresofgrassplantedper18-holegolfcourse d2014reported150,628poundsOregoninternalmarket,soldataverageof$150/ounce

eTheOregonGolfEconomyFullReport2013fproductofestimatedcropdamagecostsmultipliedby.27(estimatedproportionofproductsthatwouldbequarantinedbasedondestination−westernstatesandCanada)

gproductofestimatedcropdamagecostsmultipliedby.08(estimatedproportionforquarantinecosts(Fowleretal.2007))

TAKEHOMEMESSAGEIftheJapanesebeetlebecomesestablishedinOregonandgenerallydispersesthroughoutthestate,theeconomicimpacttoallcrops,commodities,andotherrelatedbusinessescouldbeapproximately$45.5million.References Crownover,M.Howmanyacresareneededforan18holegolfcourse?Golfsmith.DemandMedia.Fowler,G.,L.Garrett,A.Neeley,D.Borchert,andB.Spears.2007.EconomicAnalysis:RisktoU.S.Apple,Grape,OrangeandPearProductionfromtheLightBrownAppleMoth,Epiphyaspostvittana(Walker).USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHSt-PERALRaleigh,NC.Mortenson,E.2015.OSUexpertsaysskilledfarmerswouldswamppotmarket.CapitolPress.OregonAgripedia.2015edition.OregonDepartmentofAgriculture,Salem,OR.OregonAssociationofNurseries.2016.2014OregonNursery&GreenhouseStatistics.TheOregonGolfEconomyFullReport.2013.GolfAllianceofOregonGolf20/20.