View
4
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Krungsri Research
REGIONALECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
Krungsri Research 2
Myanmar Growth will be intact, led by FDI
inflows to be attracted by renewed structural reforms in key sectors, improving business environment and less restrictions for foreign investors.
Vulnerabilities in the banking sector will emerge amid restructuring efforts.
Weak global demand may hurt export-oriented manufacturing.
Philippines Growth is set to pick up, supported by
government infrastructure spending under the BBB Program.
Macroeconomic priorities will be pro-growth, given fading inflationary pressure and weak external demand.
US-China trade tensions have dimmed export outlook, especially for electronics.
Cambodia Growth is expected to slightly moderate due to
subdued global demand and uncertainties over the EU’s decision to suspend its trade preferences.
Booming construction and tourism sectors coupled with strong domestic demand could cushion growth in 2020.
Regional Economic Outlook 2020 Lao PDR Growth will improve only modestly due to limited expansion
in investment and exports. Exports will continue to rely on electricity and commodities;
outlook remains weak as major markets are slowing down. Investment is likely to increase modestly, backed by ongoing
China-led infrastructure projects.
Indonesia Growth momentum is intact; domestic demand
should offset impact of slower exports Domestic demand remains a major growth driver,
driven by more relaxed monetary policy and stimulus measures.
Positive outlook for investment, driven by infrastructure development plans.
Vietnam Growth is expected to remain robust on the back of solid
consumption and a resilient external sector. Domestic demand will remain a major growth driver. Exports will grow at more moderate pace but remain stronger
than other exporting countries. Promising outlook for investment, driven by a growing domestic
economy coupled with favorable investment climate.
Krungsri Research 3
Regional economies: A story of decoupling growth trajectories
Source: IMF WEO (October 2019), Krungsri Research
3.6
5.2
7.5
6.3 6.2
7.1
5.2
6.2
3.0
4.8
7.0
6.46.6 6.8
5.0
6.0
3.4
4.9
6.86.5
6.86.5
5.1
6.2
World ASEAN-5 Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Philippines
2018 2019F 2020F
Note: ASEAN-5 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.For Myanmar, growth is in fiscal year running in the October-September cycle and growth in 2018 is for the interim fiscal year during April-September 2018
GDP growth of regional economies (%)
Krungsri Research 4
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
CAMBODIA
Krungsri Research 5
Cambodia: Weathering external headwinds to sustain strong growth
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
7.5
7.0 6.8
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020F
Household Consumption Government Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Change in Inventories
Exports of goods Exports of services
Imports of goods Imports of services
Statistical Discrepancy RGDP (2000p) (%)
Given stronger external headwinds, we expect growth to moderate to 6.8% in 2020 following robust growth in 2018 (+7.5%) and 2019 (+7.0%).Despite resilient domestic demand, Cambodia’s growth will be weighed on by softer global demand and uncertainties over the suspension of tradepreferences by the EU. Recently, exports to some major markets have slowed, especially to the EU which accounts for over 40% of Cambodia’s totalexports. By major product, garment, textile, and footwear (GTF) products which account for more than 70% of Cambodia’s exports have also beendeclining based on the latest readings in 2Q19.
pptContributions to real GDP growth (2000p, %)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Total exports United StatesChina European Union (RHS)EU's imports of textile (RHS)
% YoY, 3mma % YoY, 3mmaExports to major markets
-15-10
-505
10152025
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19Garment FootwearOther Textile Electrical PartsBicycle Agricultural ProductsOthers Total merchandise exports (%)
Contributions to export growth by major product ppt
Krungsri Research 6
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
CambodiaBrunei
China
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
South Korea
Japan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
Exp
ort
s to
hig
h-c
om
e co
un
trie
s (%
of
tota
l go
od
s ex
po
rts)
Good trade (% of GDP)
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
IndiaNew Zealand
AustraliaUSA0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Trad
e in
Go
od
s (%
of
GD
P)
Exports to China (% of Total Exports)
Highly open to trade
Highly depend on China’s demand
Cambodia’s export dependence on high-income countries1/
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
Garment Materials Construction MaterialsVehicles PetroleumFood and Beverage OthersTotal imports (%)
Cambodia’s export dependence on China1/
pptContributions to import growth by major product
Krungsri Research’s View
Looking ahead, Cambodia’s exports – comprising mainly GTFproducts - would be dragged by softer demand in advancedeconomies (AEs) and deteriorating external conditions. Structurally,Cambodia not only depends on trade, but is also exposed tofluctuations in demand in AEs which account for over 80% of itsexports. The weaker exports also correspond with noticeably slowerimports of garment raw materials.
However, low dependence on China as an export market wouldinsulate Cambodia from China’s structural slowdown and ongoingtrade tensions. In addition, given that China is one of Cambodia’smain suppliers of raw materials for the GTF sector, the risks forCambodia are likely to be external - the extended slowdown inglobal growth, a weak demand in AEs, and uncertaintiessurrounding the suspension of trade preferences by the EU.
Export-oriented manufacturing will be weighed on by anemic demand in advanced economies
Note: 1/ Data as of 2018
Krungsri Research 7
-19.6 -14.4 -15.1-7.1 -6.6 -5.5
Investment Employment** Wages
-10.6 -13.7 -11.6 -7.9-7.8 -10.5-4.7 -2.75
GDP Export goods Import goods Consumption
No trade diversion With trade diversion
Impact of suspension of EBA on other parts of the economy (% change from baseline in real terms)*
*2017 GDP share, **employment measured at fixed wages excluded items are imports and exports of services and inventories
Share of Cambodian exports to the EU and the World,by product (%, 2017)
75.6
0
20
40
60
80
100 Others
Cereals
Bicycles
Electrical machines
Vegetables
Garments andtextiles
Exports to the world
86.2
0
20
40
60
80
100Others
Cereals
Bicycles
Garments andtextiles
Exports to the EU
Cambodian employment by sector (2018)
1,614
1,320
557
441
635
59
1,748
1,246
954
279
92
10
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Agriculture
Trade/services
Manufacturing
Public admin
Construction
Mining
Male Female
‘000 persons
Manufacturing
Age and gender distribution of GTF workers in Cambodia aged 15 and above (% of total, as of December 2018)
Age group Male Female Total
15-24 49.0 45.0 45.8
25-34 38.5 38.5 38.5
35-44 9.4 11.4 11.0
45-54 1.6 3.6 3.1
55-64 1.4 1.3 1.3
65 and above 0.2 0.3 0.3
Total (%) 100 100 100
Number of GTF workers 224,750 833,026 1,057,776
Note: 1/ The long-term means the period over 5 years. Source: CEIC, Trade Map, ILO, Krungsri Research
Cambodia has been granted unilateral preferential access to the EU single market since 2001. Currently, that is Cambodia’s largest export marketaccounting for 40.3% of its total exports, mainly GTF products. However, the EU is in a process whether to suspend the trade preferences granted toCambodia due to alleged human right violations. If trade preferences would be withdrawn, Cambodia’s GDP could drop by 1.6-2.1% over the longterm1/ depending on the possibility of trade diversion. Moreover, the impact could spill over to the rest of the economy as the GTF sector currentlyemploys over a million workers, mostly a young labor force.
EU’s decision to suspend its trade preferences could have adverse impact on the economy
Krungsri Research 8
However booming construction and tourism sectors should cushion growth against external uncertainties
7.0 7.5 7.0 6.8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020F
Other agriculture Crops Textile & FootwearOther Manfuacturing Construction Other industriesOther services Trade Real estateTax ex. Subsidies RGDP growth (%)
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
-15
-5
5
15
25
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Asia & Pacific ex. China PRC China PRCEurope AmericasOthers Total (%)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Import of steelImport of cementImport of garment (RHS)Import of construction equipment (RHS)
KHR bn%YoY
Krungsri Research’s View
Given the weaker external sector, domestic demand is expected toremain resilient and buffer against weakening foreign demand. Thisis supported by an increase in minimum wage, FDI-fuelledconstruction activity reflected by rising imports of constructionmaterials, and a strong tourism industry driven by a surge in Chinesetourist arrivals. In addition, the government has continued tostimulate the economy through its expansionary fiscal policy.
However, the recent move to ban online casinos and gamblingcreates downside risks to the ongoing construction boom andChinese tourist arrivals, especially in Sihanoukville, as this wouldencourage those activities to relocate to neighbouring countries suchas the Philippines.
Tourism growth by main destination
Indicators of private investment activityContribution to real GDP growth (2000p, %)ppt
ppt
Krungsri Research 9
21.3
12.67.3
6.35.5
3.7
3.02.6
2.2
2.1
SingaporeCambodia
Laos
Vietnam
Myanmar
Brunei
Philippines
ThailandMalaysia
Indonesia
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.52016 2017 2018
OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (FDI Index)1/
FDI-to-GDP ratio (%, as of 2018)
-2,500
-1,500
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
Net exports of goods Net exports of servicesPrimary Income Secondary IncomeCapital Account Direct InvestmentPortfolio Investment Other InvestmentNet Errors & Omissions Reserves & Related Items
-30
0
30
60
90
120
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1Q
12
3Q
12
1Q
13
3Q
13
1Q
14
3Q
14
1Q
15
3Q
15
1Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
3Q
17
1Q
18
3Q
18
1Q
19
FDI (USD mn)
FDI (% YoY) (RHS)
Note: 1/The lower the index, the less restrictive for FDI
Despite the EU’s threat to suspend its trade preferences, Cambodia offers several investment incentives, including (1) low-cost labor, (2) generoustax exemption, and (3) tariff-free access to major markets, and these will continue to attract FDI. The US-China trade spat has accelerated therelocation of labor-intensive manufacturing industries to frontier markets, including Cambodia. With the least restrictions on FDI among regionalpeers, Cambodia should remain one of attractive alternative destinations for foreign firms. In addition, FDI inflows is sufficient to financeCambodia’s current account deficit as well.
Balance of Payments
USD mn
USD mn
%YoYForeign direct investment (FDI) inflows
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
FDI will continue to flow into the manufacturing sector, partly driven by relocation out of China
Cambodia
Krungsri Research 10
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
LAO PDR
11
Lao PDR: Growth will remain modest due to limited expansion in investment and exports
Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Krungsri Research
Krungsri Research
Laos’ annual GDP growth
74.1
30.6
17.1
38.2
60.065.2
29.0
12.9
34.3
41.5
Householdconsumption
Gross capitalformation
Generalgovernmentexpenditure
Exports Imports
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unit: % of GDP
Gross Domestic Product by expenditure
After registering the slowest growth in 15 years, at 6.3% in 2018, the IMF projects Laos’ economic growth will improve to 6.4% in 2019 and 6.5% in2020. This is premised on a sluggish global economy and a slowdown in domestic demand, the largest contributor to GDP. Risks are tilted to thedownside, stemming from looming external uncertainties, slower-than-expected implementation of committed structural reforms, and weather-related shocks. From here on, the country is aiming for about 6.5% p.a. economic growth over the medium term vs 7.4% p.a. in the past decade.
6.5
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
2020
F
% YoY
All time average = 6.4%
Krungsri Research 12
-20
0
20
40
60
80
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
FDI value Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, m
Investment should rise modestly driven by the Chinese
Laos’ FDI inflows
Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Lao local news media, Krungsri Research
-51.8
-1.0
-83.1
11.2
-100
-50
0
50
100
Electricity(36.1)
Mining(25.1)
Services(14.4)
Agriculture(11.3)
2016 2017 2018% YoY
Laos’ FDI in key sectors
Top 3 sources of FDI in Laos
334.7
-95.4 -96.7-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
China(28.2)
Thailand(12.7)
Vietnam(12.2)
2016 2017 2018% YoY
Krungsri Research’s view
Investment in Laos will continue to be capped. There is a mild positive outlook based on China-led infrastructure projects, including progress in the China-Laos railway project and the 90-year concession for Boten Special Economic Zone worth USD10bn.
Chinese FDI in Laos will continue to rise and entrench China’s role as the largest investor in Laos, given better connectivity between the two countries in northern Laos. Chinese investors have also expanded investment in other sectors, including agriculture, agri-processing, as well as services sectors like banking, financial services and education.
However, following the decision to suspend new investment licenses for hydroelectricity and mining activities, the two largest investment destinations which account for more than half of total investment in Laos, inflows could increase only modestly.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Exports Imports Trade balanceUSD, bn
Krungsri Research 13
Export growth will slow down; trade and current account deficit will remain large
Source: IMF, CEIC, Krungsri Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20F
USDCopper (USD)
Gold (USD/Troy oz)
Rubber (0.01 USD, RHS)
USD/Troy oz
Prices of key global commodities
-50
0
50
100
150
1Q1
5
2Q1
5
3Q1
5
4Q1
5
1Q1
6
2Q1
6
3Q1
6
4Q1
6
1Q1
7
2Q1
7
3Q1
7
4Q1
7
1Q1
8
2Q1
8
3Q1
8
4Q1
8
1Q1
9
2Q1
9
Total Garments Copper
Gold Electricity
Laos’ major exports
% YoY, 4qma
Laos’ trade statistics
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Trade deficit Current account deficit% of GDP
Laos’ trade deficit and current account deficit
Laos remains heavily reliant on electricity and commodities exports – a combined 56% share of total exports – which continue to be concentrated in twomarkets, Thailand and China (44% and 34% of Laos’ total exports, respectively). Given the subdued outlook for prices of key commodities and slowing demand in major export markets, Laos’ exports will grow at a slower pace ahead. Imports would also moderate in anticipation of fewer new investment projects. Trade deficit would continue to rise and its current account deficit will remain large, making Laos vulnerable to external shocks.
Krungsri Research 14
10.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2018
Jan-Sep2019
Persons, mNumber of tourists Growth (RHS)
% YoY
Brighter outlook for tourism sector: Chinese touristarrivals continue to rise
Source: IMF, Laos’ Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism, CEIC, Krungsri Research
49.1
26.7
10.2
46.1
20.7 19.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Thailand Vietnam China
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of total international visitors
Laos’ top 3 sources of international visitorsTourist arrivals in Laos
0
20
40
60
80
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2019
Number of Chinese tourists
Growth (RHS)
‘000 persons % YoY
Chinese tourists in LaosKrungsri Research’s view
Laos’ tourist arrivals will surge for the second consecutive year in 2019 driven by several tourism campaigns, especially Visit Laos-China Year 2019 and the launch of e-Visa services in June 2019.
Chinese tourist arrivals have been rising in recent years. Their share of international arrivals in Laos has doubled, and Chinese tourists are the 3rd largest arrivals in Laos.
For 2020, we expect the tourism sector to continue on its promising growth path, driven by a rising number of Chinese tourists, a relatively strong RMB, as well as the recently-launched QR Code UnionPay - an e-payment service offered through a cooperation between BCEL of Lao PDR and UnionPay International (UPI) of China.
Krungsri Research 15
Lao kip will continue to depreciate; greater pressure on debt stability
Source: IMF, CEIC, Krungsri Research
200
240
280
320
7,800
8,200
8,600
9,000
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9Ju
l-19
Oct
-19
LAK/USD LAK/THB
LAK/THB (RHS)
LAK/USD
Laos’ foreign exchange rate
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
% of GDP
Public debt
External debt
Laos’ public debt and external debt
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2015 2016 2017 2018 May-19
Foreign reserves
Months of imports (RHS)Months of importsUSD, m
Laos’ foreign reservesKrungsri Research’s view
The Lao kip has continued to weaken, by 10% against the Thai baht and 3.5% against the USD year-to-date. This was due to two key reasons: (i) the stronger Thai baht and USD, and (ii) still-low foreign reserves, at about 1.5 months of imports, far below the precautionary 3 months.
In anticipation of slower growth in exports and FDI inflows, Laos’ foreign reserves are likely to remain low. Looking ahead, we expect the Lao kip to depreciate further, which would increase vulnerability to debt stability as public and external debts remain high.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Electricity Copper Gold
Other mining Agriculture Garments
Wood Other exports
Exports structure by sector
16
Stability remains weak with large twin deficits and high debtlevel; needs reforms but that would take time
Krungsri Research
Source: IMF’s 2019 Article IV for Lao PDR, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Lao Statistics Bureau, CEIC, Krungsri Research
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Current account deficit Fiscal deficit% of GDP
Laos’ twin deficits
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Electricity Mining Agriculture
Service Industry Others
Krungsri Research’s view Laos has been registering high twin deficits – current account deficit and
fiscal deficit – over decades. The situation has worsened owing to a falling prices of commodities, which is the country’s major export and FDI destination. The government has recently made efforts to address the issues by reforming its economic structure.
It is expected to reduce fiscal deficit by focusing on fiscal consolidation by managing expenditure – including limiting recruitment in civil service and re-focusing capital spending on post-disaster replenishment—and improving revenue collection.
The government is also on track to transform Laos’ economic structure from resource-based to a manufacturing economy. Major reforms include a revision of the Investment Law and the new Decree on Concession and Controlled List (released in October 2019), aimed atdiversifying manufacturing investment, promoting a conducive investment climate, and prioritizing key industries.
Recent developments show commitment by the Lao government to strengthen its macroeconomic stability, but that would take time to implement and it would be while before we can see positive impact on the country’s economic stability.
FDI structure by sector
Krungsri Research 17
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
MYANMAR
Krungsri Research 18
5.6 7.38.4
8.07.0
5.9 6.8
6.2
6.6 6.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018T 2019F 2020FImports ExportsConsumption Fixed InvestmentChange in stocks Statistical DiscrepancyGDP growth (%)
-20-100102030405060
02468
10121416
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%YoY %YoY
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
-50-40-30-20-100102030
-202060
100140180220260300
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
%YoY, 3mma %YoY, 3mma
Contribution to real GDP growth (%)ppt
Myanmar’s tourism sector
Growth of Myanmar’s domestic demand
Krungsri Research’s View
With the revival of structural reforms, FDI inflows should continue tofuel growth in 2020. On the back of resilient domestic demand and arebound in exports, the recovering tourism industry should alsosupport the services sector and feed into the rest of the economy.The free-visa policy for some major markets in east Asia, especiallyChina, and in Europe, has played substantial roles in attractingtourists, reflected by a rebound in total tourist arrivals.
However, risks to growth are tilted to the downside. These includeuncertainties of external conditions, lingering unrest in the borderareas and Rakhine State, and political uncertainties owing to theupcoming 2020 general election. The NLD-led government’s attemptto amend the constitution also adds to the uncertainties. These couldhurt investment sentiment. In addition, mounting NPLs in the bankingsector as banks continue to clean their balance sheets may pose a riskto financial stability and the macroeconomy.
Free-visa policy
Myanmar’s economy is set to grow by 6.8% in 2020 following estimated 6.6% growth in 2019. The revival of structural reforms are expected to playa main role in attracting FDI to nurture growth. In addition, government investment in several infrastructure projects including projects under theChina-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and a rebound in tourism would also support growth, on the back of resilient private consumption andexports. However, risks to growth outlook are on the downside.
Myanmar: Growth is intact despite looming uncertainties surrounding the 2020 general election
Imports (RHS)
Domesticdemand
Chinese tourist arrivals (RHS)
Total touristarrivals (RHS)
Krungsri Research 19
21.312.6
7.36.3
5.53.7
3.02.6
2.22.1
SingaporeCambodia
LaosVietnam
MyanmarBrunei
PhilippinesThailandMalaysia
Indonesia
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.52016 2017 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
%YoY %YoY
Source: CEIC, ASEAN Stat, OECD, Myanmar DICA, Krungsri Research
OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (FDI Index)1/
Note: 1/The lower the index, the less restrictive for FDI
FDI-to-GDP ratio (%, as of 2018)
USD mn USD mn
Committed FDI inflows (permitted value) Growth of cumulative FDI (approved amount)
Myanmar will continue to attract FDI due to ongoing structural reforms In the FY2019/20, the government aims to attract USD5.8bn of FDI inflows, similar to that of FY2018/19. Following the revival of structural reformprograms and liberalization of key sectors including banking, insurance, retail and wholesale trade, education, and other priority sectors, coupled withfewer restrictions on FDI and the improved ease of doing business, the FDI target should be achievable. FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector,especially the garment and textile industry, should pick up. In addition, Myanmar should benefit from the relocation of labor-intensive production outof China, accelerated by US-China trade tensions. However, the NLD’s policy of promoting responsible foreign investment and quality-over-quantitycould cap FDI inflows.
Total FDI (RHS)
ManufacturingFDI(Permitted Value)
Manufacturing (RHS)
Myanmar
Krungsri Research 20
5.6
7.38.4 8.0
7.05.9
6.86.2
6.6 6.8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018E 2019F 2020F
Agriculture Goods Industry Goods
Services GDP: 2010-11p (%)
40424446485052545658
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
-20
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
80
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Exports of Manufactured Products (% of Total Exports)Exports of Manufactured Products (RHS)Total Exports (RHS)
%YoY %YoY, 3mma
ppt Index, sa1/
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Intermediate Goods Consumer Goods
Capital Goods (RHS)
%YoY, 12-mma %YoY, 12-mma
Source: World Bank, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Contribution to real GDP growth (%)
Note: 1/The index greater than50 means improvement since previous month
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
Growth of Myanmar’s imports by major itemGrowth of Myanmar’s export of manufactured products
Manufacturing activity is buoyant due to FDI inflowsManufacturing activity driven by FDI inflows is set to expand at a stronger pace. The recent PMI has expanded at a solid pace. In addition, a pick-upin exports of manufactured products should induce higher imports of capital goods and intermediate inputs in the periods ahead. While theindustrialization process has been advanced recently, manufacturing activities - which is currently dominated by the garment industry and accountsfor only a quarter of Myanmar’s total exports- should continue to expand. In 2020, thanks to uncertainties surrounding global trade policies whichwould in part drive the relocation of manufacturing out of China, we therefore expect investment activity to pick up in the Thilawa SEZ and otherindustrial zones. In addition, investment incentives and tariff-free access to major markets including the EU, should outweigh the impact of highoperating costs (e.g. electricity).
Krungsri Research 21
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
India New Zealand
AustraliaUSA0255075
100125150175200225250
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Trad
e in
Go
od
s (%
of
GD
P)
Exports to China (% of Total Exports)
Cambodia
Australia
Brunei
IndiaIndonesia Japan
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Myanmar PhilippinesNew Zealand
Singapore
Thailand
USA
Vietnam
South Korea
0255075
100125150175200225250
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Trad
e in
Go
od
s (%
of
GD
P)
Exports to High-Income Economies (% of Total Goods Exports)
Source: CEIC, Trademap, Krungsri Research
-30-20-1001020304050
-75-50-25
0255075
100125
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
China Thailand EU Japan Total Exports (RHS)
%YoY %YoY25.2
21.716.0
7.16.8
5.75.2
2.52.3
1.81.7
1.22.7
Garments
Mineral products
Vegetable products
Base metals
Live animals/products
Precious metals
Prepared foodstuffs
Footwear
Vehicles
Machinery
Plastics and articles
Wood and articles
Others
Major export items of Myanmar (% share, 2018)Export growth of Myanmar by destination
Export dependence on China of some selected countries (as of 2018)
Export dependence on advanced countries(as of 2018)
Highly open to trade Highly depend
on China’s demand
Highly depend on AEs’ demand
Highly open to trade
Myanmar’s relatively-closed economy should insulate it from trade tensions, but not weak global demand Low openness to trade and connectivity to China’s supply chains would insulate Myanmar from trade uncertainties. However, weak global demandcould compress its exports despite its low dependence on AEs’ demand for exports compared to regional peers. A structural slowdown in Chinacould also reduce imports from Myanmar, especially basic metals. Nevertheless, looking forward, we view that exports of garment, textile, andfootwear (GTF) products should continue to expand and drive Myanmar’s total exports in 2020.
Krungsri Research 22
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19
Agriculture Production TradingTransportation Construction ServicesGeneral Hire Purchase Housing LoansSME loans Total (%)
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19
Agriculture Production TradingTransportation Construction ServicesGeneral Hire Purchase Housing LoansSME Loans Total (%)
Contributions to sectoral loan growth of state-owned banks
ppt
Contributions to sectoral loan growth of private banksppt
Myanmar
Brunei
Cambodia
China
India
IndonesiaMalaysia
Philippines
SingaporeSouth Korea
Thailand
VietnamJapan
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0
Reg
ula
tory
Cap
ital
to
Ris
k-W
eigh
ted
Ass
ets
Regulatory Tier 1 Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
Capital adequacy of the banking system in ASEAN+3 (as of 2018) Krungsri Research’s View
The key risk to macroeconomic stability in the near term isemerging vulnerabilities in the private banking sector as banks arerequired to comply with more stringent regulations under Basel II.Banks are cleaning up their balance sheets and restructuring theirloan portfolios, by converting non-NPL overdrafts to term loanswithin July 2020. Against a backdrop of low capital buffers, privatebanks have been deleveraging and this is reflected by a decliningcredit to the economy. And if this happens too fast, it could harmgrowth. In addition, some private banks could become insolvent asNPLs rise, and some are struggling to meet higher capital adequacyrequirements. This create risks to financial instability and maysubsequently hurt growth through macro-financial links.
Vulnerabilities in the banking sector are emerging due to the transition to stringent regulations
Krungsri Research 23
Brunei
Cambodia
ChinaIndia
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Lao P.D.R.MalaysiaMyanmar
Philippines Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Gen
eral
go
vern
men
t n
et
len
din
g/b
orr
ow
ing
(% o
f G
DP
)
Current account balance (% of GDP)
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600-2,000
-1,600
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
2Q1
2
4Q1
2
2Q1
3
4Q1
3
2Q1
4
4Q1
4
2Q1
5
4Q1
5
2Q1
6
4Q1
6
2Q1
7
4Q1
7
2Q1
8
4Q1
8
2Q1
9
USD/MMK (inverted)USD mn
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1Q1
42Q
14
3Q1
44Q
14
1Q1
52Q
15
3Q1
54Q
15
1Q1
62Q
16
3Q1
64Q
16
1Q1
72Q
17
3Q1
74Q
17
1Q1
82Q
18
3Q1
84Q
18
Net exports of goods Net exports of servicesPrimary Income Secondary IncomeCapital Account Financial AccountNet Errors & Omissions Reserves & Related Items
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
Current account balance (CAB) and government budget balance
USD/MMK exchange rate and CAB Balance of Payments USD mn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
%YoY, 3mmaTrend of inflationary pressure
Macroeconomic stability remains broadly weakMaintaining macroeconomic stability while implementing structural reforms is challenging. On the price stability, strong inflationary pressure, risingelectricity prices, and supply-side shocks including food prices, pose upside risks to inflation. Twin deficits are threatening external stability. Thecurrent account deficit is sufficiently financed by FDI inflows, but looking ahead, the growing export-oriented manufacturing sector, more FDI-driveninvestments, and the implementation of several infrastructure projects, would widen the current account deficit. This would in turn put downwardpressure on the MMK, which is stable currently. The effect of a weaker MMK is normally passed relatively quickly through to domestic pricesbecause Myanmar relies substantially on imports.
Headline inflation
Core inflation
USD/MMK (Period Average) (RHS)
Current Account Balance
Krungsri Research 24
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
VIETNAM
Krungsri Research 25
Despite escalating trade tensions and a slowdown in global trade, Vietnam’s economy registered 6.98% growth in the first three quarters of 2019,and is expected to achieve the upper level of its official target range of 6.6-6.8%. In 2020, the economy should continue to post robust growth,supported by solid consumption and rising investment given a more favourable investment climate. This will lead Vietnam to become the fastestgrowing economy in ASEAN and among emerging markets in Asia.
Government targets 6.8%
growth for 2019 and 2020
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full year
% YoY
Vietnam: Economic growth will remain robust and continue to outperform other developing Asian countries
Source: Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO), IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2019), CEIC, Krungsri Research
Vietnam’s GDP growth
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
World ASEAN Emerging andDeveloping Asia
Vietnam
2018 2019F 2020F
% YoY
IMF’s GDP growth projection
Vietnam
Krungsri Research 26
Bright growth prospect for domestic consumption given strong fundamentals plus an easing monetary policy
Source: GSO, CEIC, Krungsri Research
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Mar
-15
Jul-
15
No
v-1
5
Mar
-16
Jul-
16
No
v-1
6
Mar
-17
Jul-
17
No
v-1
7
Mar
-18
Jul-
18
No
v-1
8
Mar
-19
Jul-
19
%
Vietnam’s unemployment rate
0
4
8
12
16
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019
% YoY
Vietnam’s retail sales growth vs. GDP growth
Average 2014-2018 = 11.0%
Krungsri Research’s view
Vietnam’s retail sales have continued to grow strongly with adouble-digit percentage, almost twice its GDP growth rate. This isunderpinned by rising income and low unemployment rate.
In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has run supportiveeconomic growth policies with (i) a surprise reduction in its policyinterest rate by 25 bps in September 2019 (the first cut in two years),(ii) cutting its interest rate cap for dong deposits and order lenders tolower interest rates to 5.0% from 5.5%, as well as (iii) reducing themaximum dong lending rate for short-term loans to 6.0% from 6.5%.
Looking ahead, we expect Vietnam’s retail sales to continue toexpand driven by its strong consumer market, supported by a laborforce that accounts for half of the total population, rising monthlyincome, declining unemployment, and a 5.5% increase in minimumwages in 2020. The country will also gain from its 2020 ASEANChairmanship. This will not only boost domestic consumption, butalso spur tourism spending across the country.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 3Q16 2Q17 1Q18 4Q18 3Q19
Average monthly earning Growth (RHS)
‘000 VND/month % YoY
Vietnam’s average monthly earning
GDP growth
Retail sales growth
-15
0
15
30
45
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-19
Jul-
19O
ct-1
9
Exports by businesses relying on FDIExports by local businessesTotal exports
% YoY
Krungsri Research 27
Export growth will remain moderate while other exporter countries show weaker growth
Vietnam’s exports growth
Source: GSO, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Note: *Exports by FDI sector refers to exports relying on foreign investment businesses. Exports by domestic sector refers to exports relying on local businesses.
Krungsri Research’s view While Vietnam’s exports registered 7.4% YoY growth for Jan-Oct 2019,
it is slower than in the same period last year. This was partly due tothe ongoing US-China trade spat and weakening global trade. Exceptthe US, Vietnam’s exports to some other markets saw broadly slowergrowth or contraction, including China and Hong Kong, partly due tothe relocation of supply chain companies to Vietnam.
More importantly, exports by FDI sector* have been growing at aslower pace than exports by domestic sector (local businesses) andposted negative growth for the first time since 2009. This raisesconcerns over the outlook for exports in 2020 as exports of the FDIsector accounts for up to 70% of Vietnam’s total exports.
However, we expect Vietnam’s exports to continue to grow but at amore moderate pace, driven by improving export performance oflocal businesses as well as the country’s rising competitiveness(Vietnam leapt 10 places in the Global Competitiveness Index 2019vs 2018). It would also have better comparative advantage with newFTAs, including the EU-Vietnam FTA (EVFTA) which is likely to comeinto effect in 2020.
27.6
-1.8
9.4 10.1
-12.4-20
0
20
40
60
80
US(22.9%)
China(14.5%)
Japan(7.7%)
S.Korea(7.6%)
Hong Kong(2.7%)
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep19
% YoY
(Share)
Growth of Vietnam’s exports to top 5 export markets
-9.8-8.0
-4.8 -4.1 -4.1-1.1 -0.5
0.0
8.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
S. K
ore
a
Ind
on
esia
Jap
an
Thai
lan
d
Sin
gap
ore
Mal
aysi
a
Ch
ina
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Vie
tnam
% YoY
Growth of Asian countries’ exports during Jan-Sep 2019
Krungsri Research 28
4.3
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019
FDI Inflows Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, bn
Investment prospects remain positive on the back of a more favourable business climate
Vietnam’s FDI inflows
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
5.12.0
2.2 4.5
49.3
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct 2019
Total FDI FDI: Manufacturing% YoY
Growth of Vietnam’s FDI inflows
-17.0
168.7
73.3
151.2
-72.3-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
S.Korea(9.5%)
China(7.3%)
US(6.3%)
Hong Kong(5.6%)
Japan(5.6%)
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct 2019% YoY
(Share)
Growth of Vietnam’s FDI inflows by sources
Krungsri Research’s view
FDI inflows in Vietnam have been rising in recent years and in 2019.This is underpinned by structural trends (relocation investment) awayfrom China in search of lower costs, as well as acceleration ofinvestment outflows from China to avoid the impact of US tariff hikes.This is reflected by the drastic increase in FDI inflows from China intoVietnam in 2019, which almost double China’s share to 7.3% ofVietnam’s total FDI inflows. And, the manufacturing sector remainsthe top FDI destination in Vietnam with robust growth, which suggestsVietnam is an attractive production hub.
In 2020, we expect FDI inflows into Vietnam to continue to increase.Key drivers include (i) a solid and large domestic market, (ii) efforts toreform state-owned enterprises which cover broad-based sectors, (iii)the expected implementation of EVFTA, and (iv) improvingcompetitiveness. These would support the country’s furtherintegration with the global investment and supply chain.
Krungsri Research 29
Comprehensive policies and economic integration will attract more FDI
Source: Vietnam local news media, Krungsri Research
A Competitive Production and Investment Baseon the back of growing market-oriented economy
• Expand market with Free Trade Agreement strategy (newly launched: FTAs including CPTPP, EVFTA)• Improving broad-based competitiveness
“Industry 4.0” “Make in Vietnam”“Industrial economy”
• Manufacturing: Automotive and transport equipment OEMs and suppliers
• Technology: High-technology industry
• Environmental-friendly technology: Water conservation, solar, wind investments
• Manufacturing: Pharmaceuticals & medical equipment
• Services: Education and health services, financial services, and financial technology (Fintech)
• Information technology and intellectual services
• Manufacturing: Textile & garments, footwear, mobile phone assembly, home appliance
Priorities
Policies
“Quantity FDI”
Short-term (2021-2025)
Long-term (2026-2030)
Current status
• FDI: USD30-40bn per year• Local content: to increase 30% by
2025
• FDI: USD40-50bn per year• Local content: to increase 40% by
2030
• FDI: USD29.3bn per year• Local content: 20-25% of
total valueGoals
“Quality FDI”
Vietnam’s attractiveness as an FDI destination has been supported by a favorable environment including economic and institutional reforms, increasing international integration through FTAs, and its improving competitiveness. Looking ahead, the country continues to promote FDI with a bolder plan. It not only wants to attract more FDI, but also aims to attract “quality” FDI under the Industry 4.0 and the Make in Vietnam programs. Specifically, the government has identified priority industries to represent its more practical strategies, including automotive, high-tech manufacturing industries, pharmaceutical & medical related industries, as well as high value-added services.
Krungsri Research 30
Large trade surplus with US means Vietnam would be influenced by US protectionist policies; strong FDI inflows could cause labour shortage
Source: Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Vietnam’s trade with the US
0
10
20
30
40
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep2019
Exports Imports Trade BalanceUSD, bn
Structure of Vietnam’s key exports to the US
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-50
0
50
100
150
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Textile & garmentsComputer, electrical productsMachine, equipmentsFootwearTotal exportsTelephones (RHS)
% YoY % YoY
Growth of Vietnam’s top 5 exports to the US
0
10
20
30
40
Textile &garments
Telephones,mobilephones
Footwear Computer,electricalproducts
Machine,equipments
Jan-Sep 2018 Jan-Sep 2019% of total exports
Krungsri Research’s view
Escalating US-China trade tension has made things more challengingfor Vietnam given (i) Vietnam’s rising trade surplus with the US, and(ii) labor shortage due to a sudden increase in demand for labor(especially skilled labor).
Vietnam is in a one-sided relationship because of its rising tradesurplus with the US and the surplus will widen further. Specifically,exports of smartphones - the key item subject to US tariffs with effectfrom December 15, 2019 - has surged to account for one-fifth ofVietnam’s exports to the US. Driven by high export growth (+27.4%YoY) and import growth (+12.2% YoY) during Jan-Sep 2019, Vietnam’strade surplus with the US is expected to hit a new high in 2019.
Given robust domestic demand, Vietnam’s increasing competitiveness,and relocation interest to Vietnam, FDI inflows will continue to rise, whichwould lead to a surge in demand for labor– especially skilled labor– withina shortperiod. This would lead to labor shortage in the near future.
Krungsri Research 31
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
INDONESIA
Krungsri Research 32
Indonesia's GDP has continued to grow modestly in the first three quarters of 2019, by about 5%. This is mainly because exports have slowed on the back of weaker commodity prices and a slowdown in China’s economy. Though the government has increased spending leading to the presidential election in April, the economy only gained marginally in 1H19. At the start of 2H19, we observed a gradual slowing down of domestic spending and the central bank is trying to stimulate the economy by cutting key interest rates. Looking ahead, we expect Indonesia’ economy to continue to grow,but at similar pace to recent quarters, supported by comprehensive stimulus policies to spur domestic demand.
Source: IMF, Bank Indonesia, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Indonesia: Growth momentum is intact; domesticdemand should offset impact of slower exports
5.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p 2020p
Household cosumption Government consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Change in Stocks
Statistic Discrepancy Trade Balance
GDP
%YoY
Contribution to GDP: expenditure side
4.85
4.90
4.95
5.00
5.05
5.10
5.15
5.20
5.25
5.30
5.35
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019% YoY
Quarterly GDP growth
Krungsri Research 33
Domestic demand will improve driven by easing monetary policy and more stimulus measures
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Krungsri Research’s view
Indonesia’s domestic consumption – the largest contributor at 57% of GDP – has been softening since mid-2019, reflected by slower retail sales and motor vehicle sales, compared to average growth of +6.6% in 2018.
The authorities have taken steps to support growth of household consumption. The Bank Indonesia (BI) has loosened its monetary policy by (i) cutting interest rates for the fourth month in a row (July to October 2019) and keeping it at 5.0% in November, and (ii) relaxing macroprudential policies to increase liquidity and enhance growth ofconsumption credit by reducing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for real estate. In addition, the government has added stimulus measures, including cutting VAT for imported machinery & equipment andreducing tax rate for R&D activities.
Looking ahead, we expect domestic consumption to increase further driven by additional stimulus measures. We expect BI to continue with its accommodative monetary policy with another rate cut, by at least 25 bps. The government also plans to increase its expenditure budget by 3% in 2020 as well as introduce a series of tax incentives for labor-intensive businesses.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May
-19
Sep
-19
Number of motor vehicle sales
Growth (RHS)
‘000 units % YoY
-10
0
10
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9Ju
l-19
Oct
-19
% YoYIndex 2010=100
Retail sales index
Growth (RHS)
Indonesia’s retail sales Indonesia’s motor vehicle sales
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May
-19
Sep
-19
Core inflation Headline inflationPolicy interest rate
%
Indonesia’s inflation and policy interest rate
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
4
8
12
16
1Q1
4
3Q1
4
1Q1
5
3Q1
5
1Q1
6
3Q1
6
1Q1
7
3Q1
7
1Q1
8
3Q1
8
1Q1
9
3Q1
9
Total Growth (RHS)% YoYUSD, bn
Krungsri Research 34
Source: Bank Indonesia, The Insiders Stories, Krungsri Research
0
4
8
12
16
1Q1
4
3Q1
4
1Q1
5
3Q1
5
1Q1
6
3Q1
6
1Q1
7
3Q1
7
1Q1
8
3Q1
8
1Q1
9
3Q1
9Domestic Foreign Total
USD, bn
Structure of investment realization
Indonesia’s quarterly investment realization under BKPM* privilege
Investment will play a bigger role, boosted by fiscal spending in infrastructure development projects
Indonesia’s 2020-2024 investment plan by sector
Krungsri Research’s view We expect investment in Indonesia to rise further, underpinned by
domestic investment – led by the government’s investment plan for 2020-2024 which focuses on infrastructure projects.
Investment has been recovering since early 2019, thanks to rising domestic investment – which is playing a bigger role with its shareincreasing to 50% of total investment in Indonesia.
In the next five years starting 2020, Indonesia will pour more than USD400bn into the country, mainly in infrastructure development projects, to lift the country’s competitiveness. It would also gain from capital relocation from Jakarta to East Kalimantan worth USD33bn as well as a development to modernize the Jakarta cost around USD40bn – including lengthening the track for the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system, an extension of water pipes and a new sewage system. In addition, FDI in Indonesia is expected to increase moderately given a more favorable investment climate includingrelaxing rules for restricted businesses, and new investment in priority sectors, e.g. electric vehicle, ICT and e-commerce.
6017
10
85
Transportation
Energy
Irrigation
Informationcommunication
Water supplyand sanitation
USD412bn(2020-2024)
Share
Private 35%
SOEs 25%
Government40%
Note: *BKPM refers to Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal
Krungsri Research 35
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC, Krungsri Research
External stability is expected to improve further; IDR should be stable
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
1Q1
4
3Q
14
1Q
15
3Q1
5
1Q
16
3Q
16
1Q1
7
3Q
17
1Q
18
3Q1
8
1Q
19
3Q
19
Realized FDI Growth (RHS) % YoYUSD, bn
Indonesia’s realized foreign direct investment (BOP basis)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1Q1
5
2Q1
5
3Q1
5
4Q1
5
1Q1
6
2Q1
6
3Q1
6
4Q1
6
1Q1
7
2Q1
7
3Q1
7
4Q1
7
1Q1
8
2Q1
8
3Q1
8
4Q1
8
1Q1
9
2Q1
9
3Q1
9Services Primary incomeSecondary income GoodsCurrent account balance
USD, bn
-8
-10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct2019
% YoY
Import
Export
Indonesia’s current account balance
Indonesia’s export and import growth
Indonesia’s foreign reserves vs. foreign exchange rate
We expect Indonesia’s external sector to remain resilient, supported by (i) a slowing decline in exports premised on an increase in manufacturingexports, e.g. automotive and electrical machinery, to specific markets such as Vietnam – its major markets for these products; (ii) a further recoveryin FDI; and (iii) sustainable increase in foreign reserves which would support a stable IDR.
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May
-19
Sep
-19
USD, bn IDR/USD
Foreign exchange rate (RHS)
Foreign reserves
Krungsri Research 36
Source: Indonesia local news media (related to President Joko Widodo’s inaugural address), Krungsri Research
Five Priorities for 2020-2024: Improve investment climate
Infrastructure Development
EnhancingInvestment Climate
Human Capital Development
Economic transformation
Bureaucracy simplification
Develop infrastructure across the country, including roads, airports, and seaports
Implement the Online Single Submission (OSS) licensing system
Expand supporting payment system
Expand the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) and scope of funding sources
Set endowment fund and create capacity building for human resourcedevelopment
Diversify the economy from depending on natural resources to competitive manufacturing
Promote downstream and upstream industries
Targeted industries include automotive, textile, and footwear
Reduce structure levels in ministry andcreate more functional roles
Cut long procedures and regulatory constraints
To level up the country’s competitiveness, attract investment, and create jobs
Strategy
Target
Action
To do from 2020
Road: To double total length to over 800 km. vs. 406 km. in 2019
Railway: to increase by 240 km. vs. 270 km.
Airport: To develop 14 new airports and improve 27 airports
Ports: To develop 6 routes of pioneer shipping, 21 routes of maritime highway
Review Labor and Investment Rules
Provide tax incentives for SMEs
Provide incentives for e-commerce
To review and shorten procedures and regulations
Provide tax deduction of up to 200% for businesses that invest in human resources development
Provide education subsidies to low-income students
Promote electric vehicle industry and target to increase manufacturing contribution to 20% of GDP by 2025, from 17% recently
The government has been improving Indonesia’s competitiveness in recent years, mainly through infrastructure development. From now on, the government under the second term of President Joko Widodo will focus on creating a more favorable business climate through the “Five Priorities for 2020-2024”, which comprises broader targets. The priorities are infrastructure development to enhancing investment climate, simplifying the bureaucratic process, human capital development, and economic transformation. Looking ahead, these moves will level up the country’s investment climate and make Indonesia more competitive to attract FDI in the future.
Five Priorities Towards The Year 2020-2024
Krungsri Research 37
Source: World Bank, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Delay in infrastructure development would limit investment attractiveness
Krungsri Research’s view
Foreign direct investment has been slowing down in Indonesia from 2.8% of GDP in 2014 to 1.9% in 3Q19. This is partly due inadequate infrastructure, which leads to higher logistics costs than in other countries. Furthermore, the 2019 global competitiveness index also shows Indonesia ranks 50th, five places lower than in 2018, partly due to a weak score forinfrastructure facilities.
Looking ahead, to compete with other attractive FDI destinations in ASEAN amid the relocation trend from China, Indonesia is struggling to improve its infrastructure in order to get more FDI and strengthen its international position in the future.
Rank of Global Competitiveness Index
112
110
77
56
45
38
113
106
67
64
50
40
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand 2019
2018Indonesia
7.410.9
12.7 13.6 13.9
21.0
25.2
Sin
gap
ore
Wo
rld
aver
age
Asi
a P
acif
ic
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
lan
d
Vie
tnam
Ind
on
esia
Logistics Cost*
Unit: % of GDPIn
do
nes
ia
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Q1
4
3Q1
4
1Q1
5
3Q1
5
1Q1
6
3Q1
6
1Q1
7
3Q1
7
1Q1
8
3Q1
8
1Q1
9
3Q1
9
Indonesia ASEAN% of GDP
Foreign direct investment
Note: *data as of 2016.
Krungsri Research 38
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020
PHILIPPINES
Krungsri Research 39
5.6
5.5 6.26.0 6.2
-15-10
-505
10152025
1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 2020FHousehold Consumption Government ConsumptionGross Fixed Capital Formation Change in InventoriesExports: Goods Exports: ServicesImports: Goods Imports: ServicesStatistical Discrepancy GDP (2000p) (%)
Contributions to real GDP growthppt
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Krungsri Research
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Net Lending Capital Transfers to Local Govt Units
Equity Infrastructure
Current Operating Expenditures Govt Expenditure (%)
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
1Q1
42Q
14
3Q1
44Q
14
1Q1
52Q
15
3Q1
54Q
15
1Q1
62Q
16
3Q1
64Q
16
1Q1
72Q
17
3Q1
74Q
17
1Q1
82Q
18
3Q1
84Q
18
1Q1
92Q
19
3Q1
9
Domestic DemandExportsImports
% YoY Domestic and external demand
Contributions to government expenditure growth ppt
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Actual HistoricalMean ForecastHigh ForecastLow Forecast
Government budget balance forecast (% of GDP)
Philippines: Rebooting the fiscal engine to bolster growth Growth in 2020 is set to rebound to 6.2% supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies, following an estimated 6.0% growth in 2019. In theabsence of substantial inflationary pressure and extended uncertainties in external conditions, the priorities of macroeconomic policies will be gearedtowards boosting growth to meet the 6.5%-7.5% target for 2020. With the 2019 budget impasse weighing on growth, we expect the catch-up budgetdisbursement and accelerated infrastructure investment to help spur growth and crowd-in private investment in 2020, on the back of resilientdomestic demand and easing monetary conditions which the BSP has embarked on since May 2018.
Krungsri Research
Krungsri Research 40
6.0 6.35.6 5.5
6.2 6.0 6.2
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q1
8
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
3Q
19
2019
F
2020
F
Agriculture Manufacturing Construction
Other industries Services GDP: 2000p (%)
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
3Q
19
Agriculture ManufacturingConstruction Service Sector (RHS)
% YoY Contributions to real GDP growth (%)ppt Developments of major supply-side sectors
Krungsri Research’s View
Construction activity surged 16.3% in 3Q19 after contracting 9.8% in 1H19 due mainly to catch-up public spending on infrastructure projects. This should further crowd-in private investment in 2020, which has started to rebound in 3Q19 despite the latest readings being muted, especially the drop in imports of capital goods in 1H19 due to delays in infrastructure investment.
Despite the promising approval of the 2020 budget, there are risks to the disbursement of government infrastructure spending. Weak implementation at line government agencies could cause disbursements to fall short of the target. In addition, infrastructure projects could be further constrained by the lack of both skilled and unskilled labor, especially in the construction sector.
% YoY 2019 budget impasse
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Imports of Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods
Imports of Capital Goods
% YoY, 12-mma
Indicators of private investment activity
Build, Build, Build Program: Back on track to reignite growth Against a backdrop of weakening manufacturing activity weighed on by deteriorating external conditions, catching up public spending under the Build,Build, Build (BBB) Program which had been impeded by the 2019 budget impasse is expected to further induce private investment and constructionactivity in 2020. Following the latest readings in 3Q19, construction activity is picking up and we expect the momentum to be carried over to 2020 andboost GDP growth to 6.2%, albeit below the government’s target of 6.5% -7.5%.
Krungsri Research 41
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-1
8Ju
l-1
8A
ug-
18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
n-1
9Ju
l-1
9A
ug-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Policy rate Core inflation (12-mma)Headline inflation (12-mma) Upper Limit Target
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
0369
1215182124
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Philippines' Broad MoneyPhilippines Outstanding Bank LoansReserve Requirement Ratio (RHS)
% YoY Liquidity in the banking system
% YoY (12-mma), % per annum
%
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Krungsri Research
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-1
8Ju
l-18
Au
g-1
8Se
p-1
8O
ct-1
8N
ov-
18D
ec-1
8Ja
n-1
9Fe
b-1
9M
ar-1
9A
pr-
19
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19A
ug-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
FoodNon-food ex. TransportTransportInflation rate (%YoY)
ppt
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Baseline inflation forecasts(as of 14 November 2019)
20 Jun Meeting
8 August Meeting
26 September Meeting
14 November Meeting
2019 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.40%
2020 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.90%
2021 n.a. 2.9% 2.9% 2.90%
Sources of current inflation by major componentTrend of inflationary pressure and policy rate
Monetary easing is not overThe Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the Philippines’ central bank, has signaled the rate cut for 2019 is over, but we expect the BSP to resume itseasing cycle in 1Q20 by delivering another 25-bp rate cut because the growth outlook is disappointing at current policy rate of 4.0%. The resulting3.75% policy rate is expected to remain unchanged throughout 2020. Fading upside risks to inflation, reflected by the BSP’s revision of its latestbaseline inflation forecast, and benign external conditions in the global financial markets, warrant the BSP’s additional easing. We also expect theBSP to continue to reduce RRR to inject liquidity into the economy as banking system liquidity remains relatively tight despite the 200-bp cut in2019. Easing monetary conditions subsequently should help to reignite private investment and support household consumption.
Krungsri Research 42
Source: BSP, CEIC, Krungsri Research
Labor market conditions
3
4
5
6
7
8
12
14
16
18
20
22
1Q1
42Q
14
3Q1
44Q
14
1Q1
52Q
15
3Q1
54Q
15
1Q1
62Q
16
3Q1
64Q
16
1Q1
72Q
17
3Q1
74Q
17
1Q1
82Q
18
3Q1
84Q
18
1Q1
92Q
19
% YoY % YoY
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1Q1
42Q
14
3Q1
44Q
14
1Q1
52Q
15
3Q1
54Q
15
1Q1
62Q
16
3Q1
64Q
16
1Q1
72Q
17
3Q1
74Q
17
1Q1
82Q
18
3Q1
84Q
18
1Q1
92Q
19
3Q1
9
Current QuarterNext 3 MonthsNext 12 Months
Index (%)BSP’s Overall Consumer Outlook Index
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7O
ct-1
7Ja
n-1
8A
pr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9Ju
l-1
9
Retail Sales Passenger Car SaleCommercial Vehicle Sale
Indicators of private consumption activity
% YoY, 12-mma % YoY, 12-mma
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Total AsiaAmericas Middle East
% YoY, 12-mmaCash overseas workers remittances
Consumption is firm, supported by benign inflation and remittance inflowsWith growth averaging 6.0% in 2019, we expect household consumption which accounts for over two-thirds of GDP to remain resilient in 2020 andto continue to be one of the main growth drivers. Robust consumption should be supported by improving consumer confidence, strong labormarket conditions, and inflows of overseas remittances. In addition, fading inflation and easing monetary conditions coupled with growth in loansfor household consumption are also expected to boost consumption. Latest indicators for private consumption activity show signs of picking up,including vehicle sales.
Unemployment rate (RHS)
Underemployment rate
Krungsri Research 43
Cambodia
Australia
Brunei
IndiaIndonesia Japan
Lao PDR
Malaysia
MyanmarPhilippines
New Zealand
Singapore
Thailand
USA
Vietnam
South Korea
0255075
100125150175200225250
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Trad
e in
Go
od
s (%
of
GD
P)
Exports to High-Income Economies (% of Total Goods Exports)
Export dependence on advanced countries of selected countries1/
Source: CEIC, Trade Map, Krungsri Research
Mineral products
Products of the chemical
Base metals
Machinery and mechanical appliances
Vehicles abd transport equipment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Imp
ort
s b
y gr
ou
p o
f m
ajo
r p
rod
uct
s (%
)
Exports by group of major products (%)
Structure of exports and imports by group of major products1/
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Trade Balance Current Account Balance
USD/PHP Monthly Average (RHS)
USD/PHP (inverted)USD mnUSD/PHP exchange rate and CAB
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
% YoY Exports of manufactured products
Note: 1/ Data as of 2018
Weak demand in AEs dim the export outlook Despite low dependence on international trade, deteriorating external conditions, especially weak demand in AEs and uncertainties over global tradepolicies will dim Philippines’ export prospects in 2020. Structurally, the Philippines’ exports rely strongly on AE markets which account for about 77%of its total exports, which means exports would be weighed on by anemic demand in these markets. In addition, its exports are concentrated inmachinery and mechanical appliances (HS84 and HS85) and almost half of that is shipped to narrow markets including Hong Kong, the US, and China.This clearly poses downside risks to the total exports. Latest readings suggest that the exports of electronic products are weak. Additionally, risingdomestic investment will drag the current account balance (CAB) into a negative territory in 2020.
Exports of Electronic Products
Exports of Manufactured Products
Krungsri Research 44
Source: CEIC, Krungsri Research
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
India New Zealand
AustraliaUSA
0255075
100125150175200225250
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Trad
e in
Go
od
s (%
of
GD
P)
Exports to China (% of Total Exports)
Export dependence on China1/
Highly open to trade
Highly depend on China’s demand
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
International trade and trade balanceUSD mn USD mn
Mineral products
Products of the chemical
Base metals
Machinery and mechanical appliances
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Imp
ort
s fr
om
Ch
ina
by
maj
or
pro
du
cts
(%)
Exports to China by major product (%)
Exports to and imports from China by major product1/
-20-100102030405060
-20-10
0102030405060
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Total Exports to ChinaExports of Electrical Machinery & Equipment (HS84 and HS85) to China (RHS)
% YoY, 3-mma% YoYExports of electronic products to China
Trade tensions will hurt Philippines’ electronics exports The unresolved US-China trade tension would further weigh on Philippines’ exports in 2020 since its electronics industry is substantially linked toChina’s supply chains, despite its relatively low dependence on China as an export market compared to regional peers (about 13% of its totalexports). However, China is a main market for Philippines’ exports of machinery and mechanical appliances (HS84 and HS85) at more than 60% of thecountry’s total exports to China. Trade tensions which have directly hit China’s electronics manufacturing sector would be undoubtedly transmittedto China’s trading partners along the supply chain, including the Philippines.
Note: 1/ Data as of 2018
Imports
Exports
Trade balance (RHS)
KRUNGSRI RESEARCH
Disclaimer
This document is based on public information believed to be reliable. Nevertheless,Krungsri Research would not affirm the accuracy and completeness of thisinformation. The opinions expressed in this document are our own, which are notnecessarily the opinions of Bank of Ayudhya. We reserve the right to change opinionsor forecast without prior notice.
For research subscription, contact
krungsri.research@krungsri.com
Intelligence Team Pimnara Hirankasi, Ph.D. Senior Analyst Talublugkhana Thanadhidhasuwanna Senior Analyst (Financial Sectors) Rachot Leingchan Analyst (Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals) Arpakorn Nopparattayaporn Analyst Chutipha Klungjaturavet Analyst
MIS and Reporting Team Suratchanee Somprasong Administrator Thamon Sernsuksakul Administrator Chirdsak Srichaiton MIS Officer Wongsagon Keawuttung MIS Officer
Somprawin Manprasert, Ph.D. Head of Research Division and Chief Economist
Macroeconomic Team Sarun Sunansathaporn Senior Economist (Global Economy) Sujit Chaivichayachat Senior Economist (Thai Economy) Churailuk Pholsri Senior Economist (Forecasting) Soison Lohsuwannakul Senior Economist (Lao PDR, Vietnam, Indonesia) Sathit Talaengsatya Senior Economist (Cambodia, Myanmar, The Philippines) Lookhin Varachotisate Economist Tanaporn Sriklay Economist
Industry Team Phornphan Phoksuphat Head of Industry Research Taned Mahattanalai Senior Analyst (Manufacturing, Steel) Chamadanai Marknual, Ph.D. Senior Analyst (Construction, S-Curve) Poonsuk Ninkitsaranont Senior Analyst (Healthcare, Modern Trade , ICT) Piyanuch Sathapongpakdee Senior Analyst (Transportation & Logistics) Narin Tunpaiboon Senior Analyst (Power Generation, Biofuel, Chemical & Plastic Products) Puttachard Lunkam Analyst (Tourism Sectors, Industrial Estate, Construction Materials) Wanna Yongpisanphob Analyst (Automobile, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Food & Beverages) Patchara Klinchuanchun Analyst (Real Estate) Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk Analyst (Agricultural Products)
Subscribe Us
Recommended